On Monday night, the Sixers and Hawks meet for the first time this season. Let’s get into our Sixers-Hawks betting preview, including odds, boosts, and picks.
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Preview
Amid rising confirmed cases of COVID-19 and reports that the NBA is considering a temporary shutdown to get things under control, the Atlanta Hawks (4-5) are set to play host to the class of the Eastern Conference, the Philadelphia 76ers (7-3). Unfortunately for the Sixers, who were fined $25k for violating the league’s injury reporting rules, will suit up at most nine players for the contest, just a game removed from realistically having seven players available against the Denver Nuggets.
Philadelphia will be without point guard Ben Simmons, who did not make the trip to Atlanta with a sore knee that he had surgery on this past summer, as well as Furkan Korkmaz and Terrance Ferguson, who are out with an abductor strain and personal reasons, respectively. Seth Curry, Shake Milton, Tobias Harris, Matisse Thybulle, and Vincent Poirier are also out due to contact tracing off Curry’s positive COVID-19 test.
The good news for the Sixers is franchise center Joel Embiid is listed as probable and could be relied on heavily to carry the scoring load. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Philadelphia could keep this one close.
Atlanta will look to right the ship after four consecutive losses and will be without Bogdan Bogdanovic.
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Sixers vs. Hawks Odds
Here’s the line for the Sixers and Hawks at DraftKings Sportsbook PA:
- Spread: Sixers +6.5, Hawks -6.5
- Moneyline: Sixers +205, Hawks -250
- Total: 222
And here are the current best available odds for the Sixers (may not display on Google AMP pages):
Bets We Like With a Sixers Win
FiveThirtyEight gives the Sixers an 55% chance of winning with a -1.5 point line. Philadelphia’s implied win probability based on the moneyline is just 31%. The oddsmakers and projection models have seen their share of discrepancies ahead of recent Sixers games and this one is no different.
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Sixers to Win and Under 221 Points (+460, DraftKings)
To be clear, it’s hard to justify taking the shorthanded Sixers on the road against a Trae Young led team when Philadelphia is missing their best perimeter defender. Rookie Tyrese Maxey showed an ability to score when needed, dropping 39 points on 18-33 shooting, including 3-8 from downtown.
It could be another showcase game for Maxey in a dynamic matchup against Young, with Joel Embiid set to terrorize Atlanta on the interior, but ultimately, it seems hard to imagine a scenario in which the Sixers put up enough points to threaten the total going over 221. Look for Danny Green to get a ton of minutes guarding Young, with Embiid contesting anything and everything at the rim.
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Sixers to Win and Joel Embiid to Record a Double-Double (+300, FOX Bet)
If the Sixers are to have any shot against Atlanta, it’ll have to come via a massive game from franchise center Joel Embiid. Embiid was unavailable against the Nuggets, and will likely look to shoulder the load and get some frustration out on the interior of the Hawks’ defense.
In three games against the Hawks a season ago, Embiid averaged 35.3 points and 13.7 rebounds against Atlanta. If you’re looking for good value on a player prop and Sixers moneyline parlay, this is the one to look at.
Bets We Like With a Hawks Win
Hawks to Win and Under 221 Points (+163, DraftKings)
Atlanta started the season with a string of four games with absolutely gaudy offensive output to start the year:
- 124 points @ Chicago
- 122 points @ Memphis
- 128 points vs. Detroit
- 141 points @ Brooklyn
Since then Hawks have cooled off, failing to break 95 points in two of their last four games. They’ve seen the under hit in each of their last five games. While Trae Young is poised to have a massive game without All-Defense First Team caliber Ben Simmons to defend him on the wing, the Sixers still have Joel Embiid as a defensive anchor.
The Sixers, meanwhile, have scored an average of 106 points over their last two games, including a 103 point outing when their undermanned squad took on Denver. Embiid should feast on the inside, but this isn’t setting up to be a barn burner.
If you’re a fan of historical precedent, find solace in the fact that Atlanta has won 14 of their past 15 games as favorites against Philadelphia.
Hawks to Win and Trae Young Over 34.5 Points (+450, FOX Bet)
Trae Young was an absolute scoring machine over his first four games of the season, scoring at least 29 points in each and over 35 points twice. While is scoring is down in January (33.3% from the field and 22.2% from three), it stands to reason that he’s in for a breakout game against the Sixers, who will be without their defensively-gifted point guard Ben Simmons. It’s entirely possible this game trends in the blowout direction, though we don’t expect it to happen. Either way, expect a heavy dose of Young to establish Atlanta’s offense.
This is a great value if you expect Atlanta to pull out a win.
Bets We Like Independent of Outcome
The post Sixers vs. Hawks Betting Preview (January 11, 2021) appeared first on Crossing Broad.
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