Saturday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sheffield United vs. Southampton (March 6)

Sheffield United vs. Southampton Odds

Last-place Sheffield United host Southampton at Bramell Lane on Saturday with a chance to get out of the bottom spot in the league.

Sheffield United earned their fourth win of the season on Wednesday, pulling off an upset over Aston Villa at home. It’s been an absolute nightmare of a season for the Blades, who are most likely getting relegated unless they go on a run over the last 10 matches. They need all three points against Southampton to help make that happen.

Southampton is starting to dip into the relegation battle. They’ve only earned 30 points through 27 matches this season and are seven points above the drop zone.

They are in the worst form of any Premier League club, losing eight of their last nine matches. If the Saints aren’t careful, a loss on Saturday could pull them into the thick of the relegation fight.

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Sheffield United

This campaign for the Blades quite literally could not be going any worse. From undeserved results to terrible injury luck, everything has gone wrong for Sheffield United.

It’s hard to find many bright spots with the dark clouds of relegation hovering over Bramall Lane right now, but the Blades are far better than their results have shown.

Outside of Brighton, Sheffield United is the most underrated team in the Premier League this season. In fact, based on Understat‘s expected points metric, the Blades should have 10.25 more points to their name, which would put them in 18th place and on the cusp of survival. The reason for the large discrepancy is because they’ve had terrible luck in front of net.

The Blades have scored only 16 goals in 27 matches, but have created 26.09 xG, so they are due for some positive regression in their final 10 matches.

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Southampton

For the Saints, regression has come in a massive way. Ever since their 1-0 upset win over Liverpool in early January, Southampton has picked up only one point and have been outscored 25-5. They’ve only been able to average 1.00 xGF per match, so a lot of their issues have come in front of net. 

A lot of that has to do with the 4-4-2 formation they utilize, one of the more defensive setups in soccer. Manager Ralph Hasenhüttl’s side likes to press high up the field and has morphed at times into a 4-2-2-2.

However, the high press may run into some trouble when they face Sheffield United’s 3-5-2 formation. The reason being if your formation presses high and morphs into a 4-2-2-2, that is going to leave space out for the Blades’ wing backs to push up the field and exploit the Saints on the outside.

To make matters worse, the Saints are going to be without right midfielder Theo Walcott and defensive midfielder Oriol Romeu for this match. So, even though they’re playing the last-place team, victory is not a forgone conclusion for the most out-of-form club in the Premier League.

Betting Analysis & Picks

Sheffield United is dealing with some injuries at the moment, but I don’t think they should be underdogs to a team that hasn’t won a Premier League match in more than two months.

The Blades are due for some positive regression and I think they are going to back up their 1-0 win over Aston Villa on Wednesday with another win over Southampton.

Since I have this match projected around a pick’em I think there is plenty of value on Sheffield United’s spread of +0.5 at -127 odds.

Pick: Sheffield United +0.5 (-127)

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