Red Sox vs. Tigers Odds, Preview, Prediction: Target the Total With Shaky Starting Pitching (Tuesday, August 3)

The Detroit Tigers came away with an unlikely but successful July, while the Boston Red Sox yielded first place in the American League East back to the Tampa Bay Rays in their last series against their division foes.

Wily Peralta takes on the struggling Garrett Richards. Do the Tigers continue their July success against a Red Sox team in desperate search for a win streak, or will Boston be motivated to propel themselves back into first place?

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Boston Red Sox

Boston has one of the most valuable and deep bullpens in MLB. Matt Barnes and Garrett Whitlock have been some of the most consistent relief arms in the league this year, although Barnes has struggled in the last month. That said, Josh Taylor, Phillips Valdez and Darwinzon Hernández have added some more depth to the relief corps.

Boston owns a top-10 lineup in the big leagues, as well. Losing Marwin González and Danny Santana seems like addition by subtraction, even if they add some needed fielding flexibility.

As far as healthy hitters go, though, Bobby Dalbec is one of the only hitters struggling. They still do have seven other hitters in the lineup with wRC+ over 100. This has helped them all season and given Peralta’s propensity to walk some hitters, this lineup should fare well.

Garrett Richards has been a letdown, especially since the “sticky stuff” crackdown. His spin rates have plummeted since 2020. All have dropped around 100 RPMs, so that seems to be the main reasoning for 35 runs earned against him in 47 1/3 innings, which accounts for a 6.65 ERA.

Detroit Tigers

Since July 1, Isaac Paredes, Jake Rogers, Jeimer Candelario, Robbie Grossman and Eric Haase all own wRC+ over 145 against righties, which explains the recent success from the Tigers lineup.

Detroit’s starters essentially have all been at least league-average hitters in that same time period, so even with much of its pitching staff injured (José Ureña, Matt Boyd and Spencer Turnbull), the hitting has picked up some slack.

Being able to rely on Haase behind the dish, instead of batting Grayson Greiner has definitely contributed to the lineup. Haase’s nine homers in the month of July supplemented the other power sources in the lineup, like Robbie Grossman and Akil Baddoo.

With next to zero holes in the order as of late, the Tigers have the advantage compared to the slumping Red Sox.

Peralta, though, had been walking on eggshells since mid-June, and he started to regress back to reality in his last two starts, in which he allowed 11 earned in nine innings of work. Peralta ranks in the second percentile in strikeout rate, which contributes to his lack of recent success. In modern pitching, starters must miss bats, or at least induce plenty of ground balls to be deemed effective.

Detroit’s bullpen has struggled this season, but its standard options in Michael Fulmer and Gregory Soto still remain. Unfortunately, the Tigers traded Daniel Norris to the Brewers, so that eliminates a long-relief option in the case that Peralta gets shelled yet again.

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Red Sox-Tigers Pick

Both of these lineups can hit. The Detroit bullpen has struggled more than Boston’s, and even if the Red Sox have more depth from relievers, they rely on Richards going at least five innings. Otherwise, they will have to dig deep into that bullpen.

Both starters have not shown much in their last few appearances, so two lineups with very few holes lean to the over in this one.

A total of 10 is high, but I would take this to 10.5 (-110) given how well both of these squads can hit. Expect both starters to take early exits.

Pick: Over 10 (-105, play to -110)

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