Rays vs. Yankees Odds, Preview, Prediction: Positive Regression Coming for Bronx Bombers (Tuesday, June 1)

The New York Yankees continue an important series in the American League East against the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday night.

Tampa Bay enters the matchup in first place in the AL East with a 35-20 record a five-game winning streak going. New York has the best roster in the division but is 5 1/2 games behind the Rays.

For Tuesday’s game, the Rays have an edge in starting pitching with Tyler Glasnow opposing Domingo Germán. While New York is scoring fewer runs per game than Tampa, its lineup has underperformed this season.

Is there value on the Yankees turning things around on Tuesday night? Let’s dig in.

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Rays Lineup Is Due For Regression

The biggest reason for the Rays being favored is because of Glasnow, who has a 4-2 record with a 2.57 ERA, 2.72 xFIP and strikeout rate of 12.6 per nine innings. Most importantly Glasnow is averaging 6 1/3 innings per start, which is unusual in a league that sees the typical starting pitcher throw for only five innings.

Backing Glasnow up is a Rays lineup that has overperformed this season. Tampa Bay is currently averaging five runs per game while the average MLB lineup is averaging only 4.33 runs per game. However, if you delve more closely into the numbers, the Rays look less impressive.

The Rays’ lineup has a wRC+ of 107 and should be scoring 4.63 runs per game, or 7.4% fewer runs. Players like Joey Wendle and Mike Zunino are having career years and should regress to the mean.

Over the course of a full season, Tampa should score only 4.16 runs per game according to my model.

New York Yankees

Germán is no slouch on the mound compared to Glasnow. After missing the 2020 season, he’s putting together another solid season with a 3.06 ERA and 4.01 xFIP. While Germán should regress, he is exceeding expectations by being a reliable arm this season.

Backing up Germán is a Yankees bullpen that is one of the best in the league. Currently, New York’s bullpen has a 3.65 xFIP, fourth lowest in the majors. Against an overperforming Rays lineup, Germán and the Yankees’ bullpen should keep runs off the board.

The issue with the Yankees this season has been their lineup. The Yankees are only averaging 3.79 runs per game, which is the fourth-lowest total in the AL. Even though the Yankees are underperforming based on the strength of their roster, they collectively have a wRC+ of 97, which means they should score only 3% less than the league average or 4.2 runs per game.

Once you factor in that several Yankees are underperforming — including DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton — as the season progresses my model projects the Yankees’ probable lineup for Tuesday’s game to score 4.62 runs on a typical night.

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Rays-Yankees Pick

A compelling case could be made for either team. The Rays have a solid starting pitcher in Glasnow, and the Yankees have a lineup that should be scoring more runs. My model believes that the Yankees should be small favorites, and that is why I like their money line for Tuesday’s game.

Even though I am a Yankees fan, it is usually a bad idea to bet on them based on how popular they are. In 2020, if you bet on the Yankees in every game this season, you would have an ROI of -11%, which is the seventh worst in the league.

However, based on the Rays’ recent hot streak, it’s Tampa Bay that is overvalued. The Yankees still have a strong lineup, strong bullpen and decent starting in Germán going on Tuesday.

At +110, the Yankees are an attractive underdog, and I would bet them up to +102.

Pick: Yankees +110 (play to +102)

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