Ravens vs. Dolphins Week 10 Picks: Plenty of Points This Thursday Night

Both the Baltimore Ravens and the Miami Dolphins will look to make it two wins in a row as they face off on Thursday Night Football. Here’s who we believe will start a new winning streak with our Ravens and Dolphins picks.

As is to be expected, the Ravens come into this Thursday Night matchup as clear favorites. That’s not a role they’ve been comfortable with this season as they’re only 1-5 against the spread this season as favorites.

The Dolphins meanwhile avoided some NFL history last week by beating the Houston Texans. The loser of that game — which ended up being Houston — was the first time a team won their opening game before losing eight straight in NFL history.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 10 matchup between the Ravens and the Dolphins (odds via Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Ravens vs. Dolphins Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, November 11, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Weather: 78 degrees, no precipitation

Ravens vs. Dolphins Odds Analysis

The line for this game opened at Ravens -6.5 before action on them saw it balloon up to -7.5. With seven being a key number in football, if you like the Ravens in this spot most of the value is gone here.

The total opened at 48 and has been steamed down to 46.5. This one is a little more straightforward because of the Ravens defensive woes of late. On top of that, I think the quarterback situation in Miami has had an effect on this number as well. It is still uncertain if Tua Tagovailoa or Jacoby Brissett will start this one.

Ravens vs. Dolphins Picks

Ravens -7.5 (-110) ★
Over 48 (-110) ★★

SEE ALSO: NFL Power Rankings Week 10

Ravens vs. Dolphins Predictions

Ravens -7.5 (-110)

This is a case of holding your nose and taking the Ravens. There are so many reasons not to back the Dolphins here. They beat the Texans even though they committed five turnovers, but that's because Houston committed four of their own. There hasn't been a game in over 20 years with that many combined turnovers. Essentially, Miami did everything to lose, the Texans were just worse.

On the flip side, even though Baltimore won in overtime, they dominated the game statistically. Let's start with first downs where they had an incredible 36-13 edge over the Minnesota Vikings. They also had the ball for just over 46 minutes which serves to highlight the issue with laying more than a touchdown with Baltimore.

They've been wildly inconsistent overall this season. That game was the third time this year they've trailed by double digits this season and won. They should cover here but they also seem to find ways to let teams hang around, as exemplified by last week's win over the Vikings.

Over 46.5 (-110)

The Over has value for so many reasons, starting with the Ravens offense. When it's clicking, they can put up a ton of points in a hurry. It's hard to imagine them having a statistical advantage like they did last week against Minnesota and not getting into the mid to high 30's against Miami. If you ignore last week's game against the Texans, the Dolphins were giving up 31 points per game to their opponents at home.

If you listened to Ravens head coach Jim Harbough after the last week's game, you'll know he is aware his team needs to refocus. The last three weeks have been a rollercoaster. They looked incredible against the Los Angeles Chargers, confused against the Cincinnati Bengals, were down early to the Vikings, and came back only to give up the lead and have to win in overtime.

The other reason I like the Over as our pick in this Ravens-Dolphins game is Baltimore's defense has looked vulnerable for consecutive weeks — they gave up 31 points and 41 points against the Vikings and the Bengals respectively. This group is not playing at the level we've come to expect so I think Miami will be able to score enough to push this number over the total.

SEE ALSO: Bills vs. Jets Week 10 Picks

Picks made on 11/10/2021 at 5: 46 p.m. ET

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