Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Southampton vs. Wolves (Sunday, Feb. 14)

Southampton will host Wolves in the first of four Premier League matches on Sunday.  It will be these teams’ second meeting in four days, after Southampton won 2-0 at Molineux in the FA Cup on Thursday.

Here’s a quick look at the two clubs, followed by a prediction.

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Southampton

Southampton got the win on Thursday, but they are in terrible form in the Premier League. They have lost five league matches in a row, including that 9-0 disaster at Manchester United on Feb. 2.

That being said, Southampton are still very comfortable in terms of the league table — currently in 12th with 29 points, 14 points above the relegation zone.

And they were unfortunate in their 3-2 loss at Newcastle last Saturday, finishing ahead in terms of expected goals (xG) by 1.4 to 0.8 (according to FBRef.com). Though Southampton really have no good excuses, given Newcastle were shorthanded after Jeff Hendrick was sent off early in the second half.

Southampton were even more unlucky in their 1-0 home loss to Aston Villa, the game preceding the 9-0 defeat. The Saints outshot Villa 20-8 in that match, and topped them expected goal-wise 1.7 to 0.5.

Wolves

Wolves are two points and two spots below Southampton in the table — on 27 points, in 14th place. They’re unlikely to be hauled into a relegation battle, but that’s still a very disappointing position for a club that finished seventh in the league in each of the past two seasons.

In addition to losing on Thursday in the FA Cup, Wolves’ recent league form is also pretty poor — although not quite as poor as Southampton’s. They do have a win and two draws in their past four matches, but posted four defeats and two draws in their previous six. In other words, Wolves have won just one of their past 10 league games.

The win was a pretty decent one, though — a deserved 2-1 victory over Arsenal, topping them xG-wise 1.5 to 0.6. And then last Sunday they played a scoreless draw against now second-place Leicester City — a match Wolves should’ve won according to xG, 1.9 to 0.7.

Betting Analysis & Picks

Southampton are the favorites, given they’re at home and just beat Wolves on Thursday.  But the two managers took very different approaches to that FA Cup match.

Ralph Hasenhuttl sent out a first-string lineup, including striker Danny Ings, and it paid off. Wolves’ Nuno Espirito Santo, on the other hand, started with a second-string front three of Fabio Silva, Morgan Gibbs-White and Vitinha — clearly prioritizing the forthcoming league match.

Wolves will still be without star forward Raul Jimenez, a big reason why they’re languishing near the bottom of the table right now. But they should look a lot stronger with Willian Jose, Pedro Neto and Adama Traore likely up front on Sunday instead.

If you look at the Premier League table in terms of xG difference, these two teams flip positions — Wolves are 12th at -2.0, Southampton are 14th at -6.8.

My prediction? Nuno’s focus on the league match pays off.

Pick: Wolves +215

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