Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Crystal Palace vs. Fulham (Sunday, Feb. 28)

Crystal Palace vs. Fulham Odds

Clubs looking to build off Premier League victories go at it bright and early Sunday when Crystal Palace welcomes Fulham to Selhurst Park.

The Eagles caught a bit of luck (actually, whole lot of it) in the process of snapping a two-game losing skid in their 2-1 triumph over hard-luck Brighton & Hove Albion last time out. That win pushed Crystal Palace into 13th place on the table and 10 points clear of the drop zone.

On the other side, the Cottagers continued their stellar run of form in their quest to escape the bottom three in England’s top flight. Fulham secured a coveted 1-0 shutout against last-place Sheffield United in its most recent outing, extending the club’s unbeaten streak to four matches.

Let’s take a look at these combatants and see where we can find some value.

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Crystal Palace

If there was ever a match where a club absolutely did not deserve a win, it was Monday’s insane meeting between the Eagles and Seagulls. Crystal Palace had two touches (I repeat, two touches) in Brighton’s penalty area, connecting on both and pilfering all three points in the process.

Just how stagnant was the Eagles’ offensive attack? Take a look. And sorry, Brighton fans. I have to show off your club’s atrocious run of home form to make my point:

Here’s Brighton’s last 10 Premier League home matches:#BHAFC 🔵⚪ pic.twitter.com/OwGHYfazup

— Infogol (@InfogolApp) February 23, 2021

That isn’t a misprint from the folks over at infogol.com either. Crystal Palace had a minuscule 0.27 xGF in that victory. Two opportunities, including Christian Benteke’s stoppage-time winner, were all the Eagles needed.

Statistically, Crystal Palace is downright awful across all major advanced metrics. The Eagles sit on a measly 20.8 expected goals (xG) and brutal 37.3 expected goals, resulting in a disappointing -16.5 xGDiff and -0.66 xGDiff/90 minutes.

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Fulham

Manager Scott Parker has the Cottagers’ ship finally sailing in the right direction. For Parker, the lads and supporters, the hope is this newfound life didn’t come too late in the campaign.

Fulham has picked up two wins in their last four league fixtures, including an impressive 2-0 victory against Everton back on Feb. 14, and a pair of draws. Josh Maja bagged a brace for the Cottagers in that win over the Toffees at Goodison Park.

When comparing numbers with Crystal Palace, Fulham boasts better figures across the board. The Cottagers are on 28.1 xG and a mediocre 33.9 expected goals against, resulting in a lackluster -5.8 xGDiff and -0.23 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Bottom line, Fulham has every chance to steer itself clear of earning a trip down to the Championship. Picking up a positive result against Crystal Palace would be an ideal place to continue its ascension toward safety.

Betting Analysis & Picks

I don’t see much happening in this contest, despite the fact Fulham enters this meeting in better form.

That said, I am taking a shot at this match ending in a draw at a nice price. Yes, Fulham is the deserved favorite and has gone unbeaten in its last six away from Craven Cottage. However, five of those fixtures finished in a draw. The Cottagers are also winless in 28 of their last 31 road affairs.

I will also sprinkle a little on the total staying under the alternative number of 2.25 goals. There have two goals or less in 13 of Fulham’s last 15 league games, so I’m going to stick with that trend continuing at Selhurst Park.

Picks: Draw +215 | Total Under 2.25 Goals (-132)

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