Pete Buttigieg’s 2024 Election Betting Odds

Election 2024 Betting Previews

The most promising candidates have already begun maneuvering and putting out feelers ahead of the next election; why shouldn’t political bettors?

Starting so soon allows us to observe how the 2024 election cycle gradually takes shape and better anticipate how it’ll play out. Of course, we can only forecast so much with such massive unknowns hanging over both parties.

• The Democrats control the White House and are expected to be represented by President Joe Biden or VP Kamala Harris in the 2024 general election. There’s a high probability Harris will be the incumbent president by then.
• Things are less set in stone on the Republican side of the equation. Everything hinges on what former President Donald Trump chooses to do. All we know for sure is that if Trump doesn’t run again, his endorsement will likely decide the GOP primary.

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Pete Buttigieg

As Pete Buttigieg took the stage in South Bend, Indiana, to announce the decision to suspend his 2020 presidential campaign last March, attendees broke into chants of “2024!” Despite the loss, “Mayor Pete’s” entrance onto the national political stage was a stunning success.

At only 38-years-old (when he exited), the small-town Mayor’s campaign’s unexpected success guaranteed his future as a fixture of the DNC for decades to come – with plenty more campaigns left in the tank!

By heeding Barack Obama’s call to drop out of the race – along with other centrist candidates — before Super Tuesday and coalesce behind Joe Biden – all to prevent Bernie Sanders from securing the nomination – Pete showed that he’s playing the long game.

Of course, when the crowd was chanting “2024!” at Buttigieg, they presumed Trump would win a second term.

Now, there’s a sitting Democratic president. In three years, Joe Biden or Vice President Harris will be at the front of the line for the party’s nomination.

Still, Buttigieg — who will still only be 42 in 2024 — joins the incumbents on a shortlist of realistic prospective Democratic candidates. The former Mayor will need a couple of situations to go his way, but nothing beyond reason.

Secretary of Transportation

DNC leadership rewarded Buttigieg’s cooperation during the primaries with a prestigious cabinet post in the Biden administration.

“Mayor Pete Buttigieg is a patriot and a problem-solver who speaks to the best of who we are as a nation,” said President Biden, in a statement announcing the former Mayor’s nomination. “I am nominating him for Secretary of Transportation because this position stands at the nexus of so many of the interlocking challenges and opportunities ahead of us.”

It marked the first time a President-elect had selected one of his former Democratic primary opponents to join their administration as a cabinet secretary.

Pete was also considered for a host of other posts, including:

• US ambassador to the United Nations,
• US ambassador to China,
• Office of Management and Budget lead,
• and commerce secretary.

Buttigieg was confirmed on February 2, 2021, with a Senate vote of 86–13 and sworn-in the following day.

The transportation secretary is expected to play a critical role in the Biden administration’s effort to produce and pass an infrastructure package. His prominent position will give Buttigieg the experience Democratic officials believe he needs to be a more formidable presidential candidate in the future.

Here are Pete Buttigieg’s early 2024 betting lines at Bovada:

2024 Democratic Primary Odds:

2024 Presidential Election Odds:

Will Pete Buttigieg Run Again in 2024?

Between Joe Biden’s questionable health and Kamala Harris’s disastrous 2020 campaign (she significantly underperformed, especially compared to Pete), it’s easy to see the President retiring from public service and the Democrats forced to find someone other than the Vice President to lead their ticket.

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Will Joe Biden Finish His 1st Term? Will He Seek Reelection?

Both parties have a similar problem when forecasting their respective 2024 election strategies: old leading candidates whose uncertain status casts a shadow over all their party’s plans.

• The Republicans are stuck in a holding pattern while they wait and observe how Donald Trump utilizes his influence over a substantial chunk of the conservative electorate. Will he run again – at which point he’ll easily win the nomination – or settle for playing kingmaker? Will he maintain his hold on the GOP over the next three years, or will popularity wane over time?
• Democrats control the White House, but the sitting President is 78 years old. He’s also shown signs of cognitive decline, the rumors of which are supported by Biden’s minimal availability to the media and record-setting number of days in office without a press conference.
• If by some medical miracle, President Biden is capable of running for reelection, he’s the nominee.
• If he steps down during his current term, incumbent Kamala Harris probably receives the DNC nomination automatically.
• If he manages to complete his term before retiring, Democrats could open the field. VP Harris will still be first in line, but she’ll need solid early poll numbers to avoid party officials considering other options.

During the 2020 election cycle, Biden expressed his desire to be a “bridge” to the next “generation of leaders” in the Democratic Party.

Now, President Biden is saying he’s open to making another bid for the presidency. “I don’t think there’s any reason to say that he won’t,” a longtime Biden adviser told The Hill.

Another close ally added that Biden hasn’t ruled out a second term. “So we all assume that he is,” they said, “contrary to this sentiment that he’ll be a one-term president because of his own volition.”

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Kamala Harris’s Status

After Joe Biden, the 2024 Democratic nomination is Kamala Harris’s to lose. She’ll either be the outgoing Vice President or the sitting President when the election cycle begins – I suspect she’ll be the President.

However, Harris’s humiliating flop in the 2020 primaries leaves open the possibility that she doesn’t have what it takes to win a nationwide election. If she couldn’t attract 4% of the Democratic vote in 2020, who’s to say she’ll be a viable candidate in the 2024 general election?!

Plus, the Democrats won’t have Donald Trump to campaign against, lessening the effectiveness of “vote blue, no matter who” campaigns. Without those anti-Trump votes, Vice President Harris will have to excite voters to turn out on her own merits.

I can envision a scenario in which party leaders intend to clear the field for an uncontested nomination but encourage competition when early signs suggest the VP will lose in a landslide.

That’s where Pete Buttigieg’s opportunity lies.

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Buttigieg’s 2020 Campaign

With Harris and Biden out of the way, the former South Bend Mayor becomes one of the Democratic Party’s 2024 betting favorites.

In that instance, his primary competition would likely be Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, and Stacey Abrams – all of whom are either unproven or were outperformed by Buttigieg in 2020. The Transportation Secretary split the Iowa caucus with Bernie Sanders, finished second in the New Hampshire primaries, and took third in Nevada – a hugely impressive run for his first national campaign.

In comparison, Kamala Harris’s candidacy didn’t even survive till Iowa; she bowed out in December 2019.

The 2020 race revealed quite a bit about Pete Buttigieg as a presidential candidate.

• He’s a gifted orator who leans a bit too heavily on his Obama impersonation but comes across well in interviews and town hall situations.
• Buttigieg’s lack of experience was one of his principal vulnerabilities. That weakness will be somewhat addressed over the next few years as the Transportation Secretary.
• He’s considerably more popular with affluent suburbanites than minority voters. His lack of appeal with Black Democrats is why Biden was chosen for the nomination over Pete. The drop-off from the first three primary races to South Carolina — where African Americans comprise a much higher percentage of the electorate – was precipitous.
• Other areas of concern are his employment history with Mckinsey and his widely criticized handling of a racially charged scandal within the South Bend Police Department — ending with then-Mayor Buttigieg firing the city’s first Black police chief.
• Addressing the race-related controversies is especially crucial; Pete Buttigieg can’t become a serious presidential contender without securing the support of people of color.

Will Pete Buttigieg Run in 2024?

After Kamala Harris, there’s nobody on the Democratic side on whom I’d rather bet than Pete Buttigieg. 2028 is the ideal time for him to make a run at the White House, but a few lucky breaks could expedite that timeline.

I’ve been very open about my prediction that Joe Biden exits office during his first term, making Kamala Harris the President. I’m assuming the 2024 election cycle will open with Harris as the incumbent and presumed nominee.

However, I see no reason to believe the Vice President will garner enough support to warrant an uncontested primary.

If the DNC donor class gets nervous about the Republican candidate and gives potential opponents like Buttigieg, Warren, Klobuchar, and Booker the green light, Harris will fall behind the pack once again.

Right now, I’m 65/35 on how this plays out.

• I’m 65% sure Vice President Harris is awarded the nomination unopposed, and
• 35% certain Kamala will fall flat again, prompting better candidates like Pete Buttigieg to launch campaigns.