Patriots vs. Falcons Week 11 Picks: Atlanta a Home Dog on Thursday Night Football

The Atlanta Falcons have never recovered as a franchise from their 34-28 Super Bowl LI loss to the New England Patriots. We break down the latest Patriots-Falcons rematch with NFL picks and predictions for Thursday Night Football.

The Falcons are not as bad as they looked in their 43-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys last week. Everything went wrong for them in Week 10, but they had previously won three of four games. This is a tough spot for Atlanta with first-year head coach Arthur Smith having to prepare for the Patriots in a short week.

Many weren’t sure what to expect from New England or rookie QB Mac Jones coming into the season. The Patriots started off the season poorly at 1-3, but they have won four games in a row and have looked good on both sides of the ball.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 11 matchup between the Patriots and Falcons (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Patriots vs. Falcons Week 11 Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, November 18, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Weather: Indoors

Patriots vs. Falcons Odds Analysis

If you like the Patriots in this spot, the line has lost a lot of value since opening at -5.5. It has risen to -6.5 or -7, depending on the sportsbook you choose. The total has seen a lot of movement as well since opening at 46.5. It has gone up and down several times this week but seems to have settled at 47.5.

Both of these teams have the same overall record as they do against the spread. The Patriots are 6-4 ATS while the Falcons are 4-5 against the number.

Patriots vs. Falcons Picks

Patriots -6.5 (-110) ★★
Under 47.5 (-110) ★★

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Patriots vs. Falcons Predictions

Patriots -6.5 (-110)

I don't love laying this many points with the Patriots but I see a few key spots that make it impossible for me to lay the points with the Falcons.

Atlanta could be playing this game without RB Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle), who has probably been their most valuable player. The Falcons have 19 touchdowns on the season and Patterson is responsible for seven of them. Without him, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick will have one less headache to worry about as he schemes up a defense to slow down the Falcons.

Let's not forget that the Patriots secondary is one of the very best in the league and Falcons QB Matt Ryan will not find it easy to get going. On the flip side, the Patriots are also one of the best rushing teams in the league with 13 rushing touchdowns and 4.1 yards per carry. The Falcone have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns and 4.2 yards per carry through nine games.

Under 47.5 (-110)

The combination of the Patriots' rushing attack and their elite secondary lead me to the conclusion that this game will go Under the total. The Falcons were already missing their best wide receiver in Calvin Ridley (personal). If Patterson sits, their playbook will be even more restricted than it already has been.

That isn't good news on a short week against a Belichick defense. I think the Patriots give the Falcons a heavy dose of the run game not only because of how good they are at it, but it's also proven to be the best way to unlock rookie QB Mac Jones. He isn't asked to do too much in this Patriots offense which is why it works.

SEE ALSO: All NFL Picks and Predictions

Patriots-Falcons picks made on 11/17/21 at 12:45 p.m. ET.

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