Oregon vs. Washington Week 10 Picks: Ducks Stay on Track for Pac-12 North Title

It’s an important game in the Pac-12 Conference North Division on Saturday. We make our picks as first-place Oregon looks to all but officially end third-place Washington’s division chances with a win as a near-TD favorite in Seattle.

Oregon-Washington is one of the Pac-12’s best rivalries and the Ducks certainly didn’t need any bulletin-board material this week to want to beat the Huskies. However, UW head coach Jimmy Lake provided some anyway. Lake was asked about the rivalry and acknowledged its on-field importance but hinted that Oregon doesn’t measure up academically to Washington, even though both schools are in the American Association of Universities.

The schools didn’t play last season because of COVID-19 issues within the Washington program and those same issues caused UW to be replaced by Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. If the seventh-ranked Ducks win out, they will win the Pac-12 North.

Oregon is 13-2-1 against the spread in the last 16 head-to-head meetings. In games played in Seattle, the Huskies are 32-22-4 straight up in the series.

Here are my picks and predictions for the college football Week 10 matchup between Oregon and Washington (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Oregon vs. Washington Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, November 6, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Location: Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium, Seattle, WA
Weather: 49 degrees, 50 percent chance of precipitation

Oregon vs. Washington Odds Analysis

The Ducks opened at -6 and have gained an extra point on the spread. Oregon is juiced a bit (-120 at some books) so this could get to 7 points. Early action has nearly 80 percent of bets on Oregon. It is 4-6 straight up and against the spread in its last 10 games as at least a 6.5-point road favorite, and the Ducks lost their previous three such contests straight up (one this year at Stanford).

The total of 51 has held steady thus far with about a 60 percent lean on the Over. The Under is 4-1 in the past five meetings in Washington.

Oregon vs. Washington Betting Picks

Oregon -6.5 (-120) ★★★
Under 51 (-110) ★★★

SEE ALSO: Early College Football Week 10 Parlay Picks

Oregon vs. Washington Betting Predictions

Ducks -6.5 (-120)

Did Washington make a mistake by promoting Lake from defensive coordinator to replace Chris Petersen ahead of last season? We have Lake sticking his foot in his mouth as noted above and the Huskies have underachieved this year at 4-4. They would need two wins to become bowl eligible and that’s far from a lock. I think Washington loses this one and probably next week at home against Arizona State. UW would then need to win at Colorado on Nov. 20 and home in the Apple Cup on Nov. 26, against Washington State.

I’m not sure why Lake hasn’t turned to touted freshman QB recruit Sam Huard yet, as starter Dylan Morris, a redshirt freshman, has been average at best in completing 60.9 percent of his throws for 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Last week in a 20-13 win over Stanford, Morris threw threw a 20-yard touchdown pass to WR Jalen McMillan with 21 seconds remaining, so it’s not like he’ll be benched now. Junior PK Peyton Henry matched his career-high with four field goals.

Oregon has won three straight since an upset loss at Stanford and it will be very interesting if the College Football Playoff committee slots the one-loss Ducks behind one-loss Ohio State on Tuesday, even though Oregon beat the Buckeyes 35-28 on Sept. 11. 

The Ducks beat up on Colorado 52-29 last week as QB Anthony Brown threw for a career-high 307 yards and three touchdowns. Oregon had a season-high 568 total yards of offense. RB Travis Dye accounted for three more touchdowns, giving him seven in the last two games.

Oregon is 6-1 against the spread over its last seven trips to Seattle. The Huskies failed to cover in five straight games as home underdogs; however, I would not play this at -7.

Under 51 (-110)

Why go Under when Oregon just had its best offensive game of the season? Because the Ducks have a habit of starting slowly this year and they always are better offensively at home.

Oregon has outscored opponents 641-292 (37.7-17.2 per game) across a 17-game winning streak at Autzen Stadium dating back to 2018. Also, star RB CJ Verdell, one of the best rushers in school history, was lost for the season a few weeks ago.

Orgon also has arguably the best defensive player in college football in DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, who very likely will be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Thibodeaux leads Oregon with four sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss despite playing just five games.

Washington is a solid defensive club itself, even after losing LB Edefuan Ulofoshio to a season-ending injury a few weeks ago. The Huskies allowed more than 27 points only in Week 2 at Michigan and the Wolverines had only 10 points at halftime. Washington leads the Pac-12 in third-down percentage defense, first downs allowed, penalties (and yards), passing defense, and scoring defense.

Both of these teams want to run the ball, which means a lot of running clock. Then you have the typical dreary Seattle weather. 

The Under is 5-1 in Oregon’s last six road games and 13-3 in Washington’s previous 16 overall.

SEE ALSO: Top College Football Week 10 Opening Lines and Picks

Oregon-Washington picks made 11/02/21 at 1:30 p.m. ET.

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