Oklahoma vs. Texas: NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions

The Texas Longhorns might have a hard time beating the Oklahoma Sooners and the NCAAB odds this Tuesday without head coach Shaka Smart.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns

Tuesday, January 26, 2021 – 7:00 PM ET at Frank Erwin Center

Making college basketball picks during the coronavirus pandemic hasn’t been easy. But we’ve got an extra twist for Tuesday’s Red River Showdown between the No. 24 Oklahoma Sooners (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) and the No. 5 Texas Longhorns (11-2 SU, 6-7 ATS): Shaka Smart, head coach of the Longhorns, just tested positive for COVID-19 and has been placed in isolation. It remains unclear at press time who will coach Tuesday’s game – or if any of the players will be impacted.

Given Smart’s diagnosis, it might be prudent to take the Sooners after they opened as 5-point road dogs on Bovada’s NCAAB odds board. Let’s see what the math says first; join us, won’t you, as we take another look at Ken Pomeroy’s blue heaven of advanced stats.

You Get The ‘Horns

Not much of a surprise to see Pomeroy’s efficiency numbers differing from the AP poll. He’s got the Longhorns ranked eighth overall (No. 15 offense, No. 8 defense) in Division I, and the Sooners at No. 22 overall (No. 22 offense, No. 41 defense), so by his judgment, these two Big 12 rivals are closer on paper than the sports writers think they are. Who are we to argue?

To be more specific, Pomeroy has Texas rated about five points better than Oklahoma per 100 possessions. How many possessions can we expect on Tuesday? Somewhere around 69-70, using his Adjusted Tempo numbers, and assuming this game doesn’t go to overtime. Multiply five by 70 percent, add two points to the Longhorns for home-court advantage (as per Jeff Sagarin’s numbers at The USA Today), and voila: You get Texas –5.5 for a quick-and-dirty projection. That means we wouldn’t normally recommend either side of Texas –5 for your sports betting pleasure.

Shop Smart

There’s nothing normal about Tuesday’s matchup, of course. Smart may or may not coach on Tuesday; not having the man who led them to the NIT title in 2019 (and Virginia Commonwealth to the CBI title in 2010, followed by the Final Four of March Madness in 2011) wouldn’t be good for the Longhorns, although it’s hard to quantify the impact Smart’s absence would have on the team.

Then you have the players themselves. The last two Texas games, against Texas Christian and Iowa State, were postponed because of coronavirus protocols – with the Horned Frogs and Cyclones being the programs needing to pause. However, the Longhorns also had three forwards who were under protocol: freshman Greg Brown, sophomore Kai Jones, and junior Brock Cunningham. Brown (plus-4.5 BPM) is their top prospect, and Jones (plus-9.8 BPM) their top performer thus far, while Cunningham (plus-6.1 BPM) has given Texas a defensive boost off the bench.

We can’t say for certain how all this will shake out for the Longhorns, but this is why the sharps are so keen on getting that COVID-19 inside information. The Sooners, meanwhile, have senior forward Brady Manek (plus-3.8 BPM) and sophomore forward Jalen Hill (plus-4.8 BPM) back from their coronavirus absences, and they helped OU beat the Kansas Jayhawks 75-68 last Saturday as 1-point home dogs. We’ll buy that for a dollar, even though the line just dropped from +5 to +4.5 while I was writing this. Dang those sharps.

NCAAB Pick: Oklahoma +4.5 (–110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Oklahoma +4.5(-110)

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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

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