Notre Dame vs. Virginia Week 11 Picks: Which offense prevails?

We’re previewing what may be the highest-scoring game of the week with our Week 11 college football picks and predictions for Notre Dame vs. Virginia.

This may not be a battle of top-10 programs but this is almost guaranteed to be an entertaining game. Notre Dame, at 8-1 straight up and 6-3 against the spread, has provided several great games already this season. Virginia has been a tremendously fun surprise as well, with a 6-3 record both SU and ATS.

There’s a lot on the line for each program. The Fighting Irish are ninth in the College Football Playoff rankings and must continue to rack up wins to have a shot at making it. Virginia just wants to stay afloat in the ACC Coastal race.

Here are my picks and predictions for the college football Week 11 matchup between Notre Dame and Virginia (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Notre Dame vs. Virginia Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, November 13, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA
Weather: 53 degrees, cloudy

Notre Dame vs. Virginia Odds Analysis

This line opened at 4.5 points but has since risen to 5.5 in favor of Notre Dame at some books. This is great news for sharps looking to buy into Virginia's powerful offense. For Notre Dame bettors, this is a dangerous line that makes me uncomfortable seeing as the Irish defense is vulnerable.

Notre Dame vs. Virginia Betting Picks

Notre Dame -5 (-110) ★★★
Over 64.5 (-110) ★★★★

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Notre Dame vs. Virginia Betting Predictions

Notre Dame -5 (-110)

The elephant in the room begins with Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong's health. The dynamic passer is day-to-day due to a ribs injury that knocked him out of the fourth quarter of the Cavaliers' last game on Oct. 30. Virginia has no shot at winning or covering if Armstrong is severely limited or out.

Assuming he plays, the Cavaliers will score and move the ball even against the firm competition. However, their defense is legitimately terrible, 122nd in the nation in both total yards and points allowed per game, and Notre Dame has dominated against mediocre and lesser opponents. I'd expect this one to play out like Notre Dame's 44-34 win against North Carolina two weeks ago.

Over 64.5 (-110)

I like the Over so long as Armstrong plays. Virginia will need to help us reach the lofty figure as Notre Dame tends to curtail scoring when it's up by several scores. Each team can score in bunches thanks to their bevy of playmakers. 

Virginia has scored no fewer than 30 points since Sept. 24, and that was its only game this season held below that mark. The Cavaliers are going to score, and so will the Fighting Irish.

SEE ALSO: All College Football Picks

Picks made on 11/09/21 at 11:50 p.m. ET.

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