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NL East Odds Update: Team Breakdowns & Best Value Pick

July 5, 2021
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Here we are in the month of July which means the Major League Baseball season is about to heat up!

As teams prepare for their final couple series’ before the All-Star break, we’ll continue our tour through MLB’s divisional futures, arriving here at the NL East in part four of our six-part series!

With that in mind, let’s go through the division, break down the clubs and provide a best value pick when it’s all said and done!

Let’s go!

*Odds courtesy of BetOnline as of before play on July 2, 2021

New York Mets

  • Record: 41-36
  • Run Differential: -3
  • Expected Record: 38-39
  • GB: —
  • NL East Odds: -230

The Spin:

In what was supposed to be a loaded NL East, the division itself has been rather decrepit as the Mets — only five games over the .500 mark — lead the division by two games despite owning a negative run differential through the first 77 games of their season.

New owner Steve Cohen came in swinging as the club traded for star shortstop Francisco Lindor before inking him to a massive-money extension to keep him in Flushing for the next decade at a cool $34.1M per annum. The problem is Lindor — like most of his offensive teammates — has struggled so far this season as he himself sports a .293 wOBA and 89 wRC+, but he’s hardly the only Met struggling at the dish.

When you’re tied for 26th with a team .296 wOBA, something’s not right. Injuries haven’t helped as Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis have all spent time on the IL this season, but few have been productive on the field when healthy. Alonso has had a fine season overall but the power remains down by his standards with 12 homers and a .204 ISO on the season, quality numbers by most players’ standards, but he’s capable of more. Conforto hasn’t hit well at just .216 for the season while McNeil and Lindor have struggled as well.

Thankfully, they’ve pitched with the best of em’, obviously led by NL MVP front-runner Jacob deGrom who continues to set records on route to what could be the best-ever season by an MLB pitcher. deGrom owns a 0.95 ERA/0.99 FIP to go along with a 14.40 K/9 clip that has steered the Mets to an MLB-best 2.60 starters ERA. Of course, he’s far from the only Mets hurler enjoying a big season as both Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker own sub-2.50 ERAs. The problem is the depth afterwards, something that could be solved with the return of fireballer Noah Syndergaard, but endured a set-back and was shut down for six weeks in late May, so his return is not imminent, although Carlos Carrasco could be back sometime next month as well.

Nonetheless, the bullpen has been there to complement that rotation. A rough go of late has seen that group slip to 13th with a 3.94 ERA, but that’s a figure most clubs would gladly take from their bullpen, even if offense was down to start the season. Closer Edwin Diaz is back to dominating with a 2.84 ERA/1.80 FIP on the season while Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Aaron Loup, Jeurys Familia and Robert Gsellman have been fantastic themselves. May and Loup have proven to be wonderful additions to that group.

As health improves, you’d look for that Mets offense to find a rhythm in the season’s season half. If not, it will be on the pitching to continue to form perhaps the best overall pitching staff in baseball this season.

Is There Value?

Not at this price. Not only are the Mets just two games up for the division lead at the moment, there are three total clubs within 4.5 games. Additionally, the Mets’ -3 run differential ranks fourth in the five-team NL East.

It’s hard to bet against this pitching staff right now, but with the offense scuffling there’s little margin for error. You don’t exactly have to bet against them, but at this price, I’m certainly hesitant to bet on them even if they do boast the best pitcher on the planet.

Until we see some longer odds on the Amazins, it’s a pass for me.

Washington Nationals

  • Record: 40-39
  • Run Differential: -2
  • Expected Record: 39-40
  • GB: 2.0
  • NL East Odds: +475

The Spin:

Most were down on the Nationals heading into the 2021 season given the Braves domination of the East in recent years to go along with the aggressive offseason from Steve Cohen in New York.

Not they they’ve run roughshod over anyone, but the Nats are hanging in there despite some surprisingly unproductive seasons for a couple of their more important players.

Juan Soto, one of the best of the best, is hitting .280 with nine homers, five steals, a .364 wOBA and 129 wRC+. That’s fantastic production by 99.9% of players’ standards, however Soto was expected to be an easy 30-plus homer bat while he’s a career .293 hitter to go along with .398 wOBA and 148 wRC+. It’s not a major underperformance, but I’d suggest we can expect more out of Soto moving forward.

In the rotation, it’s left-hander Patrick Corbin struggling while Stephen Strasburg continues to sit on the IL with a neck issue. Strasburg has also struggled when on the mound with a 4.57 ERA/5.70 FIP in five starts, but the larger sample belongs to Corbin who has struggled to a 5.56 ERA/5.15 FIP across 16 starts and has struck out just 7.21 batters per nine innings to this point.

Thanks to Max Scherzer and his 2.14 ERA on the season, the Nationals’ rotation has remained in the top half of the league at 12th with a 3.99 ERA on the season, but it’s not the three-headed monster that led them to the 2019 World Series in which Strasburg was named World Series MVP.

The Nationals offense has surged of late on the back of Kyle Schwarber who enjoyed a historic month of June from a home run standpoint, and they’re inching towards the top 10 at 11th with a .319 wOBA on the season, although their 99 wRC+ checks in at 15th. Nonetheless, a Trea Turner, Schwarber, Soto and Josh Bell top four is a solid start to a lineup that needed some upgrades from last season and got just that in Schwarber and Bell.

It’s been the much-maligned bullpen in Washington that’s been the main issue in recent seasons. They signed former Indians and Padres closer Brad Hand to help with the back-end of that group and so far that signing has proved fruitful as he sports a 2.60 ERA in 34.2 innings this season, albeit with some elevated peripherals. Hand’s presence has helped the Nats’ bullpen move up to 12th with a 3.93 ERA on the season. That’s a far improvement from a group that finished 29th in their 2019 World Series season and 23rd a season ago.

Is There Value?

With such a small gap in two games between the division-leading Mets and second-place Nationals, there would appear to be some value in Washington here.

You have to like the offense and how it’s performed of late. That bullpen is a far deeper group than we’ve seen in Washington in year’s past and Mad Max Scherzer is back to his old self and is healthier than he’s been over the last couple of seasons.

You’d like to see some more depth behind Scherzer, however. With Strasburg injured and struggling and Corbin flat-out struggling all season long along with free agent signee Jon Lester, the Nats have had little to hang their hats on in that rotation aside from a solid performance from right-hander Joe Ross who sat out the 2020 season.

It’s likely the front office will evaluate the Strasburg situation moving forward, but I wouldn’t rule out a rotation addition for a Nationals team that sent high-end prospects to Pittsburgh in a trade for Bell, indicating they’re back to all-in territory with Scherzer set to hit the open market after this season.

READ NOW: AL West Odds Update

Atlanta Braves

  • Record: 39-41
  • Run Differential: +15
  • Expected Record: 41-39
  • GB : 3.5
  • NL East Odds: +500

The Spin:

After blowing a 3-1 lead to the eventual World-champion Dodgers last fall, the Braves certainly had more World Series aspirations again this time around.

They were aggressive early in the offseason in adding veteran right-hander Charlie Morton in free agency along with southpaw Drew Smyly coming off a bounce-back season with the San Francisco Giants.

Smyly has largely struggled but Morton has more or less been as advertised for a Braves rotation that is getting a lights-out performance from youngster Ian Anderson who was a big part of their playoff run a season ago. Anderson sports a 3.35 ERA/3.39 FIP on the season, leading the staff in fWAR with a 1.9 mark, just ahead of Morton’s 1.7 figure thanks to his 3.74 ERA/3.47 FIP. The Braves’ rotation sits 11th with a 3.98 ERA on the season as it was also getting fantastic work out of Huascar Ynoa before he broke his hand on a wall while Max Fried has been solid in turning in a 4.16 ERA/3.93 FIP in his 12 starts.

The offense isn’t quite raking at the pace of their 2019 and 2020 seasons, but it’s a dangerous group nonetheless. The Braves sit 10th — one spot ahead of Washington — with a .323 wOBA on the season while their .191 ISO leads all of baseball, so there’s certainly still plenty of thunder in that lineup. The offense is not a concern in Atlanta despite the absence of Marcell Ozuna who broke his wrist before a domestic violence incident clouds his future with the club.

More than anything, they need to get their bullpen figured out. A group that finished fourth with a 3.50 ERA last season was depleted in the offseason and now that Braves bullpen finds itself sitting 23rd with a 4.70 ERA this time around. Marc Melancon and Darren O’Day are pitching elsewhere, although they did bring back Shane Greene who went unsigned despite pitching to a 2.39 ERA over the last two seasons. Greene was recalled to the big-league roster in early June, but has been bombarded for a 10.57 ERA in 7.2 innings, although his 3.81 xERA suggest major positive regression moving forward.

In terms of the Braves team we saw last season, the offense and bullpen have regressed, but the starting pitching has been solid as they look to take down their fourth straight NL East crown.

Is There Value?

Like the Nationals before them, the Braves are more than within striking distance of the first-place Mets at just 3.5 games back with a half-season still yet to play.

When it comes to this particular ball club, I see additional value. The Braves can pretty much hit with anyone and their starting pitching has certainly been good enough to complement that group.

When it comes to that bullpen, I’d be shocked if general manager Alex Anthopoulos did not aggressively add to that group before the July 30 deadline. He bolstered that group in a big way prior to last season and with Greene now back, they have Greene, Will Smith and Chris Martin set to anchor that bullpen along with left-handers A.J. Minter and Tyler Matzek. I’m not particularly concerned with this bullpen to be brutally honest.

Add it up and the Braves certainly have value to come back and take down the 2021 NL East.

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Record: 37-41
  • Run Differential: -24
  • Expected Record: 37-41
  • GB: 4.5
  • NL East Odds: +1200

The Spin:

The Phillies have been excruciatingly mediocre in recent seasons despite plenty of win-now moves that not only included the megadeal for Bryce Harper prior to the 2019 season but also more money spent to retain all-world backstop J.T. Realmuto this winter.

For some reason, this group just hasn’t been able to put it all together despite seemingly boasting a strong all-round group.

In the rotation, you have Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler giving you an excellent one-two punch. Add in Zach Eflin and his 4.20 ERA but 3.68 xERA/3.54 FIP with an elite 1.10 BB/9 rate and that’s a quality top three. Vince Velasquez has given them a 3.99 ERA in 12 starts, doing his part to help the Phillies to 13th with a solid 4.03 rotation ERA on the season, but also a top-10 3.80 FIP and identical 3.80 xFIP. The rotation isn’t the problem, but the bullpen has been.

That Phillies bullpen ERA of 4.65 puts them just one spot ahead of the Braves at 22nd league wide, and the 4.61 FIP agrees with that notion. That bullpen has been costly of late as closer Hector Neris is getting the boo-bird treatment these days while he’s been unable to perform above replacement level this season. Among Phillies relievers that have pitched at least 18 innings only Ranger Suarez owns a FIP under 4.30. That’s an eight-pitcher sample too, so clearly there’s been a depth issue in that group.

The offense underperforming does not help anything. A group that features Harper, Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, Andrew McCutchen and more is far more capable than a .305 wOBA that ties them for 17th alongside the also-underperforming Chicago Cubs. Harper and Realmuto ate hitting, but Hoskins is just 3% above league average by way of a 103 wRC+ while hitting .223.  The supporting cast hasn’t been there and the Phillies’ offense is far more mediocre than it should be.

If the Phils are to get closer to the top of this division, they’ll need to pull their socks up in the bullpen and at the dish.

Is There Value?

I’ve said it numerous times in this piece and I’ll say it again: there’s value in this odds given how tight this division is.

The problem with the Phillies and more or less everyone else in the division is you aren’t competing with just one team, but three others. In Philadelphia’s case, they technically need to leap frog three clubs to get themselves to the top of this division.

That said, this team, is just too inconsistent. While the Braves have capable bullpen arms that have lengthy track records of success in this league, that’s not the case with the Phillies as it’s a rather unproven group that has just been too inconsistent this season.

The odds are about right where they should be, but if I’m picking a plus-money team in this division it’s not going to be the Phillies right now.

READ NOW: AL East Odds Update

Miami Marlins

  • Record: 34-45
  • Run Differential: +21
  • Expected Record: 42-37
  • GB: 8.0
  • NL East Odds: +6600

The Spin:

When the Miami Marlins shocked the baseball world and earned an expanded postseason berth thanks to a second-place finish in the division, they posted a 31-29 record. However, given their -41 run differential, they actually deserved a 26-34 record that was the worst expected mark in the division. This season, the law of averages has come back to bite them as they should actually be in first place with a 1.5 game lead over the Braves.

The Marlins are built with good young starting pitching that’s steered them to a fifth-place 3.33 ERA on the season, and that’s without 2020 rookie sensation Sixto Sanchez. Trevor Rogers — a rookie himself this season — has been absolutely dominant to the tune o f a 2.14 ERA/2.62 in 16 starts. Jorge Lopez has worked to a 2.87 ERA/3.27 FIP in his own 16 starts while Sandy Alcantara owns a 3.12 ERA/3.59 FIP in a team-high 17 starts. All three of those men are 25 years of age or under as it’s safe to say the Marlins’ starting pitching picture is looking quite bright moving forward.

The bullpen has followed suit. That bullpen was one of the worst in baseball last season, but a bevy of offseason additions has that group sitting eighth with a 3.52 ERA. They already traded right-hander Adam Cimber to the Blue Jays as many more teams will come calling on the plethora of Marlins relievers enjoying fantastic seasons, but Derek Jeter’s staff went out and solved their bullpen woes with authority this past offseason.

It’s really too bad this elite pitching is going to waste thanks to another light-hitting Marlins offense. That offense currently sits tied for 28th with a .294 wOBA on the season as the Pittsburgh Pirates and their .287 mark is the only team that’s been worse. Similarly, the Marlins’ .139 ISO sits 29th ahead of only the Pirates, so the pop certainly hasn’t been there, either.

One of the more coveted bats at the deadline will be outfielder Starling Marte who has been brilliant in turing in a 146 wRC+ on the season while rookie Jazz Chisholm has more than held his own with nine homers, 10 steals and a 115 wRC+. Adam Duvall and Garrett Cooper have been good as well, but not good enough to anchor what is otherwise an extremely weak offense that’s been completely unable to support the dynamite pitching this team has benefited from this season.

Is There Value?

It’s not the eight games back that hurts, it’s the fact there’s four teams to climb in order to get to the top.

While the pitching should certainly hold up — at least in the rotation as the bullpen could see some turnover this month — the hitting isn’t going to go on an out-of-nowhere surge in the season’s second half.

The young pitching this team has bodes extremely well moving forward, but at this point the Marlins are in a hole too deep to climb out of.

NL East Best Value Pick

Atlanta Braves (+500)

To be blunt, I love the odds we’re getting here with the Braves.

The offense and starting pitching are of zero concern. Furthermore, I don’t see why this bullpen that features at least five arms with track records of success in this league can’t get things turned around in the second half of the season, especially once Greene settled back into a high-leverage role.

I can certainly see the rotation getting some help, but look for the Braves to perhaps get in on the Starling Marte sweepstakes given the Ozuna situation has them down a left fielder, likely for the season. There will be other outfielders available, but look for the Braves to get their hands on out and lengthen that lineup some in Ozuna’s absence.

Outside of the deGrom monster, the Braves’ rotation matches up just fine with that of the Mets. The offense is better certainly this season and with the Mets’ bullpen slipping of late, who knows where those groups will trend as the season moves along.

The Nationals and Phillies will likely hang around, but I like the Braves to enjoy a better second half and take down their fourth consecutive NL East title.

The Bet
BRAVES TO WIN NL EAST
+500
Bet Now!

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