NL Cy Young & MVP Odds: Injuries Open Up the Field

The baseball gods can be cruel.

Just as it seemed that Jacob deGrom was the lock of the century to win the NL Cy Young Award while even becoming the favorite to win the NL MVP, more arm issues led him to another IL stint, his second of the season. If that wasn’t enough, a recent setback is likely to keep the Mets’ ace out until September.

On July 28, deGrom had average -1200 odds to win the 2021 NL Cy Young. Fast forward to Aug 5 and those odds now sit at +800 over at BetUs. That’s how fast injuries can change the betting landscape with deGrom likely not going to even each 20 starts this season.

As for the MVP race, the injuries to deGrom, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. — otherwise known as the three front runners — have left the discussion wide open.

According to BetOnline, Tatis remains the favorite at -150 with Acuna’s odds obviously wiped out with his season over due to a torn ACL suffered just prior to the All-Star break. deGrom’s odds are also wiped out, but now you really wonder where to go. Bats such as the Dodgers’ Max Muncy and Trea Turner both at +400 as of before play on Thursday and the Braves’ Freddie Freeman at +700 to repeat as the NL Cy Young.

With all the moving parts, let’s break down where we are right now with some advice on how to proceed.

Fade the Injuries.. For Now

Right now, it’s too early to place any wagers on the injured deGrom or Tatis to won the Cy Young and MVP, respectively.

At -150 I do like a healthy Tatis to run away with the award, but he’s not healthy. When he went down with another shoulder injury on July 30, his manager Jayce Tingler noted that if he doesn’t improve with the soreness in that shoulder, season-ending surgery could be required. Not only would that be a disaster to the Padres’ chances when it comes to challenging for a World Series, but also to Tatis backers in the MVP race.

Tatis leaves the game with injury to his left shoulder/arm. Just brutal #Padres pic.twitter.com/zP3m1nzWfb

— Jim Russell (@JimRussellSD) July 31, 2021

He’s reportedly set to be re-evaluated around Aug 9 — 10 days after the injury — so look carefully for the results of that checkup before making any Tatis MVP wagers.

As for deGrom, the same rule applies. He’s reportedly confident that he’ll pitch again this season as the Mets are in a dogfight to win that NL East along with the Phillies and Braves, but with the first of September the most optimistic of return dates, the sample size is likely too small to win the award.

At this point, he’s made just 15 starts this season due to continued elbow issues/inflammation. Obviously, he’s blowing everyone else out of the water when it comes to a 1.08 ERA/1.23 FIP and tidy 14.28 K/9, but if he makes another start or two this season, does a 15-17 start season really warrant Cy Young consideration?

There’s plenty of other NL hurlers offering of Cy Young-caliber seasons, so giving it to a guy with 50% of the sample size doesn’t seem like a fair vote in this writer’s opinion.

Strike or Wait on the Longshots

With two months of baseball to go, there are players that will emerge into the odds boards.

As we sit right now, there’s some intriguing long-shots in the NL Cy Young race, one of whom is Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta.

A reliever last year, Peralta owns a 2.21 ERA that ranks second in the NL next to the Cy Young favorite Walker Buehler’s 2.16 mark. Buehler owns +250 odds over at BetUs, but Peralta comes in with +3000 odds. Why’s that?

Well, probably because Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes are also inside of that elite Brewers rotation. Woodruff owns a third-ranked 2.26 ERA and sports +350 odds while Burnes comes in with a 2.46 ERA, but also a 1.50 FIP and is listed with +400 odds. Despite not being a qualified starter with 106 innings on the season, Burnes’ 4.9 fWAR ranks second in the NL next to Zack Wheeler (+350) while Woodruff sits third at 3.9. Peralta is tied for seventh at 3.2.

At this point, it’s awfully hard to dislike the value Peralta brings to the table, even with his teammates enjoying big seasons himself. If Burnes doesn’t finish as a qualified starter, does that throw a wrinkle into things? Peralta is already (ever so slightly) out-performing Woodruff, and at astronomically longer odds.

Amazing stat of the day: Freddy Peralta has allowed 3.9 hits per 9 IP this year (with deGrom’s injuries the NL Cy Young race has become wide open)

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) August 5, 2021

Lots of baseball left.

When it comes to the MVP race, I’m waiting, as noted above. There’s a case to be made to hit Freddie Freeman right now at +700. Why?  Because if the Braves rally back from the devastating Acuna injury to win the NL East, it’s going to be because Freeman puts his team on his back. A back-to-back is not out of the running here.

As my colleague Jared Shlensky noted on our SportsGeek YouTube channel recently, it’s probably best to wait on someone else to emerge with some value, such as the Phillies’ Bryce Harper.

When it comes to qualified NL bats, Harper is all over the leaderboard. Here’s where the 2015 NL MVP ranks among qualified NL bats:

• AVG: .306 (6th)
• OPS: .974 (3rd, behind only Tatis & Acuna)
• wOBA: .411 (3rd, behind only Tatis & Acuna)
• wRC+: 158 (T-2nd, behind only Tatis & tied with Acuna and Muncy)
• fWAR: 3.6 (7th)

Clearly, Harper is enjoying an MVP-caliber season. The one problem is he falls well behind in some counting stats that traditional voters will factor heavily into their ballot. Harper’s 17 home runs are tied for 28th in the NL along while his 41 RBI ranks him 49th. By the way, how in gods name does he have 17 homers, a .306 average and .974 OPS with just 41 RBI? He’s actually behind teammates Alec Bohm (46) and J.T. Realmuto (49) in that department.

While Jared hit the nail on the head this week on YouTube, I’ll have to pump my own tires in suggesting Harper as a long-shot option prior to the season kicking off at +1400, behind Tatis who I suggested over Acuna at +800.

Nonetheless, if the advanced numbers were at the foremost of the voting, Harper would be the favorite to win the NL MVP at the moment. Whether he emerges into the race over the course of the next seven weeks remains to be seen.

BRYCE HARPER IS THE MOST UNDERRATED PLAYER IN BASEBALL TODAY pic.twitter.com/bPpgQwgVno

— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) August 5, 2021

Tough NL MVP conversation at the moment, so let’s wait and see what happens.

Is There Value in Favorites?

We’ve discussed the NL MVP race when it comes to who’s at the top and who might be worth a shot underneath, so we’ll focus this portion on the Cy Young race.

Right now, I don’t see much betting value in the favorites. Buehler’s the current favorite at +250 at BetUs while BetOnline had Zack Wheeler atop their list. As it stands right now, it’s so difficult to handicap that it feels like throwing darts, and that’s not what we want to do when it comes to the top of the odds chart.

For Buehler, leading the NL with a 2.16 ERA at the moment helps. He’s also dealing with new teammate Max Scherzer (+800) and Julio Urias (+6000) as betting options, but Buehler isn’t in the same type of internal competition that the aforementioned three-headed monster in Milwaukee are dealing with, at least in terms of the Cy Young chase.

Walker Buehler against the Giants and Padres this season

7 starts, 3-0, 1.34 ERA, 45 K, 0.85 WHIP

When the lights are the brightest, this is who you want on the mound. Best ‘big-game’ pitcher in the show 🔥 pic.twitter.com/7f4VkTTWDy

— Blake Harris (@BlakeHarrisTBLA) July 29, 2021

We also haven’t mentioned the Giants’ Kevin Gausman (+450) who owns a 2.31 ERA himself and ranks fourth in the senior circuit’s pitching department with a 3.4 fWAR behind Wheeler, Woodruff and Gausman.

Let’s let the situation evolve a bit if we aren’t going with some long-shot options such as Freeman in the NL MVP race or Peralta in the NL Cy Young competition.