As Super Wild Card Round fast approaches, we preview several of the top bets on the weekend’s NFL betting card and provide free picks for all six first-round matchups.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills
Saturday, January 9, 2021 – 1:00 PM ET at Bills Stadium
The Buffalo Bills threw down the gauntlet during the home stretch, rattling off six wins in a row to close the season with a 13-3-0 SU mark and their first AFC East title since 1995. Not satisfied with just crossing the divisional milestone, which they accomplished by eviscerating the Denver Broncos 48-19 in Week 15, Buffalo cranked it up by several notches in pursuit of the No.2 seed in the AFC. A feat accomplished in stunning fashion, blowing out the New England Patriots 38-9, and then crushing the Miami Dolphins – and in turn their playoff aspirations – behind a 56-26 thumping in the last two weeks of the season.
On the strength of Buffalo’s run of form in the last month, along with their overall record on the season, the Bills emerge as the dangerous floaters in the AFC. The team that has performed above expectations, and it's now best suited to challenge the defending champions, Kansas City Chiefs, for SBLV glory. In short, the vogue NFL pick in the AFC.
The Bills boast the second-best offense in the league in terms of both total offense and average points per game (31.3), and they’re the best in the AFC in terms of average points scored per game. Josh Allen is enjoying a banner season, throwing a franchise-record 45 TDs in the regular season (37 passing and 8 rushing scores), while wide receiver Stefon Diggs leads the NFL with 1.535 yards all while scoring 8 TDs.
18 completions
.@JoshAllenQB closed out the regular season strong before heading to #SuperWildCard Weekend!@BuffaloBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/5vQOE2aKwG
— NFL (@NFL) January 5, 2021
18 completions
The Indianapolis Colts squeaked into the postseason thanks to a win over the Jaguars and a Miami Dolphins loss (courtesy of Buffalo) in week 17. However, the manner in which the Colts made the cut is partly responsible for the less than favorable outlook they’re concerned about. To begin with, they barely beat the hapless Jaguars in week 17. Prior to that, they bottled it in spectacular fashion against the Pittsburgh Steelers, allowing a 24-7 lead to slip through their fingers on the way to a 28-24 loss.
In a nutshell, Indianapolis’ diminished chances according to the betting sites are their unpredictability. Although the Colts finished with a solid 11-5-0 SU mark – a record many teams would envy – they were only 2-4 SU against winning teams. Blowout losses to the Ravens, Browns, and Titans take some of the shine off of the Colts. Especially in the context of their upcoming matchup with one of the hottest offenses in the league.
When the Colts are hot, they’re a tough team to beat. It’s impossible to tell though which Colts team shows up in Buffalo this weekend – the one that upset the Titans and Packers or the one that wilted against the Ravens, Browns, Titans, and Steelers. It’s a right tossup in the betting as such. The Bills are the logical bet to win, but the Colts could win too. Push comes to shove, form tips the balance in favor of the Bills.
NFL Picks: Bills -290 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
Saturday, January 9, 2021 - 4:40 PM ET at Lumen Field
The overriding question ahead of this NFC West showdown on Saturday is the health and fitness of Jared Goff. Will the Rams quarterback be cleared to play almost a fortnight after having thumb surgery on December 28? The Rams organization reportedly is hopeful, but it’s a stretch, nonetheless, to expect Goff to recover enough to be able to compete at a high level. Even if Goff suits up, how effective will he be with a surgically repaired thumb on his throwing hand is impossible to tell. One doesn’t need a medical degree to guess he won’t be anywhere near 100%; never mind that even before his injury, Goff was struggling. The Rams' QB had three touchdowns to three interceptions in his last three starts.
If Goff is unavailable, backup John Wolford gets the start on Saturday. Wolford was adequate enough in his NFL debut with the Rams in week 17, doing his bit to help lift the Rams to the 18-7 victory over the Cardinals – albeit leading the offense to merely nine of the 18 points. Most of the heavy lifting was done by the special teams and defense, by thwarting the Cardinals' offense. While also contributing the rest of the points via defensive scoring. It’s worth noting though that the fact that Kyler Murray was hobbled and left the game for a period played a big factor in LA Rams’ victory.
The occasion is greater this Saturday than it was in the previous week. Making it a big ask of either an injured Goff or an inexperienced Wolford. It’s a tough spot for Sean McVay to be in too. The only bright spot is the Rams defense, which can give Russell Wilson and Co. a run for its money. But if the Rams offense is in any way inadequate this weekend, it places a huge burden on Aaron Donald and Co. They might not be able to carry it for all four quarters. Especially, if Russell Wilson taps into the MVP-level of form with which he started the season, and that led him to toss more than 40 TDs this season.
The Seahawks go into the playoffs riding the momentum of a four-game winning streak, including a 20-9 win over the Rams in week 16 that delivered the NFC West title to Seattle for the first time since 2016. Under Pete Carrol’s reign, the Seahawks boast a perfect 6-0 SU record at home in the first round of the playoffs, an added confidence boost to their already encouraging form ahead of Saturday’s clash with the Rams. The Seahawks offense is the kind of unit that can never be underestimated, while the defense has made massive gains in recent weeks.
All told, this is a fascinating contest, one that could still go either way because it’s a heated divisional rivalry. That said, the balance does tip in favor of the Seahawks to come through with the win at home. As such, the Seahawks appear to be the better bet for straight-up NFL picks.
NFL Picks: Seahawks -190 with BookMaker (visit our BookMaker Review)
Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, January 10, 2021 - 4:40 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Superdome
The Chicago Bears are one of several teams that squeaked into the playoffs in the final week of the season, doing so despite suffering a heavy loss to the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field. The Rams, who beat the Cardinals in the final week, helped pave the way to send Chicago through. Indeed, given the sketchy manner in which Chicago reaches this stage, it’s not surprising that bookmakers aren’t holding out much hope. Across the NFL odds board, the Bears enter Super Wild Card weekend as the biggest road underdogs.
Chicago’s lopsided 35-16 defeat to the Packers proved sobering and brought the Bears crashing back down to earth with an all mighty thud. It certainly has fans realizing that the Bears have no chance against the New Orleans Saints if they play anywhere nearly as bad as they did against the Packers. Actually, the Bears might not be able to help it: Chicago is a subpar 1-6 SU against teams with winning records this season. The only victory came earlier in the season, when Nick Foles led the Bears to a narrow 20-19 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Bears started the season brightly, but then the wheels came well and truly undone, as the Bears fritted away a 5-1 SU start by losing six on the trot. Had it not been for a favorable NFL schedule down the stretch, the Bears would have been hard-pressed to get into the playoffs. Mitch Trubisky’s resurgence is heart-warming, as well the general improvement of Matt Nagy’s prospects of returning next season. But expecting an upset in this game is quite a lofty expectation – a longshot bet that’s not for the fainthearted.
Brees to Cook with 3 secs left in the half
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) January 5, 2021
: vs Bears
: Sunday (3:40 pm CT)
: CBS / Nickelodeon / Amazon Prime
The Saints are coming off a commanding 33-7 win over the Carolina Panthers, despite playing without their entire running back corps. It’s not the first time Sean Payton has had to deal with adversity and challenge this season, only to rise to the occasion and navigate a winning course for his side. Midway through the season, Drew Brees suffered injuries to his ribs and hips, paving the way for backup Taysom Hill to lead the offense in his absence to a 3-1 SU mark. Nothing seems to phase the Saints, no challenge too great – or so it seems.
To be fair, the 8-8-0 SU Chicago Bears hardly loom threatening when one considers they’re merely 3-7-0 SU in their last ten games. In lieu of a first-round bye, the Saints couldn’t have asked for a better matchup on paper. The playoffs mark the beginning of a whole new season – wiping the slate clean, so to speak – and the Bears may well fancy their chances against the Saints.
They wouldn’t be the first underdogs to pull off the unthinkable upset. That said, we’re talking about a team led by Trubisky, who only a few weeks ago was past his sell-by-date and on his way out of Chicago. In a matchup between Trubisky and Brees, surely the balance tips in favor of the latter. So long as the Saints don’t underestimate the Bears in general, they should come through as the significant home faves for straight-up NFL picks
NFL Picks: Saints -505 with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The Rest of the Wild Card Round
Rapid-Fire ATS NFL Picks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Football Team
Saturday, January 8, 2021 - 8:15 PM ET at FedEx Field
NFL Picks: Buccaneers -410 with BetOnline
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, January 10, 2021 - 1:05 PM ET at Nissan Stadium
NFL Picks: Titans +160 with Intertops (visit our Intertops Review)
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, January 10, 2021 - 8:15 PM ET at Heinz Field
NFL Picks: Steelers -254 with BookMaker
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