After a bruising defeat to the Los Angeles Rams, Tom Brady will be keen to make a statement in Week 4 as he leads the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a marquee showdown with the New England Patriots in Sunday night football.
The top-rated sportsbooks install the Buccaneers as the heavy road favorites despite their recent setback. Tampa Bay is laying a touchdown to the Patriots while the total is projected on 49 points on the NFL odds board.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, October 03, 2021 – 08:20 PM EDT at Gillette Stadium
NFL Odds and Lines
Lookahead lines opened with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers laying 5.5 points to the New England Patriots, but at the conclusion of Sunday’s round of NFL action, the line jumped out to Buccaneers -7. Granted, Tampa Bay suffered a sobering 34-24 loss to the high-flying Los Angeles Rams, in which they also failed to come through as the nominal 1-point road chalk.
However, the New England Patriots’ 28-13 loss to the New Orleans Saints on the same day appears to have had a bigger impact on the market. The Patriots were overwhelmed on both sides of the ball as the Saints romped to victory. It didn’t provide good optics for Bill Belichicks’ side, never mind the timing of it wasn’t ideal.
More specifically, it raises questions about rookie Mac Jones’ confidence to lead the Patriots into the biggest game of his fledgling career against the reigning champions and his boyhood idol, Brady.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Look to Bounce Back
Whether the Buccaneers were guilty of underestimating the Rams or a lack of preparations is up for debate. It doesn’t change the fact that they got their butts whooped by Sean McVay’s side at SoFi Stadium in Week 3 – a result that went against the closing odds across multiple sports betting markets.
Tom Brady struggled to get the offense going, but that’s a credit to the Rams defense which had the veteran signal-caller under enormous pressure. Brady went an incredible 41-of-55 for 432 yards and one touchdown, but the Buccaneers only put up 21 points when all was said and done. Brady even led the team in rushing, which is an aberration if ever there was one. Brady rushed for 14 yards on three carries and a score. Mike Evans led the team in receiving with 106 yards on 8 receptions.
Up next... #TBvsNE
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) September 29, 2021
On the heels of the loss, the Buccaneers slipped to a 2-1-0 record and 1-2-0 ATS record that includes a 5-point margin of victory and a -2.8 differential versus the spread.
The Buccaneers failed to cover the closing as the 9.5-point home chalk in Week 1 following a 31-29 win at Raymond James Stadium. They lost outright as the 1-point road chalk in Week 3 to the Rams. The lone cover came at the expense of a hapless Atlanta Falcons side as the Buccaneers took the commanding 48-25 victory.
New England Patriots Go Back to the Drawing Board
Mac Jones started brightly in his NFL debut, but the Patriots lost to the Miami Dolphins 17-16. The following week, Jones clinched his first-ever NFL victory at the expense of fellow rookie quarterback Zach Wilson and the New York Jets. Wilson had a forgettable showing, throwing multiple interceptions and practically gift-wrapped the victory for the Patriots.
Mac Jones’ second interception in the NFL is also returned for a TD
— Sportskeeda Pro Football (@SKProFootball) September 26, 2021
Last Sunday’s loss to the Saints was the most revealing account, giving insight into what the Patriots are about this season and how much progress Jones is making in his transition from college football to the NFL. On the flip side, it also highlighted some of New England’s offensive shortcomings, which might be down to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.
Jones went 30-of-501 for 270 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. He’d gone the first two games of the season without an interception. Jones led the team in rushing with 28 yards on six carries, while Kendrick Bourne led the team in receiving with 96 yards.
NFL Predictions and Picks
The hype and buzz surrounding this game is a bit of a distraction in the betting. Yes, the matchup will involve the first reunion between Brady and Belichick since the veteran signal-caller quit New England last season. Yes, fans will be delighted to see Brady’s return to his old stomping grounds at the Foxborough, giving him a warm welcome to boot. And, yes, history is on the line too as Brady is poised to surpass Drew Brees in the all-time passing record. But, no, the game isn’t just about these converging backstories.
At the crux of it, it’s another football game between two teams that head into Week 4 on the back of losses. As such, the motivation to bounce back will be great. The Patriots have home advantage and that does count for something. However, the Buccaneers are in a different league, and as the best team, this is their game to win or lose as exemplified by the NFL odds.
All told, this is a get-right game for Tampa Bay and they should take advantage of the many mismatches that will be presented against the Patriots to clinch the convincing victory.
NFL Pick: Buccaneers -7 (+100) with BetOnline (visit out BetOnline Review)
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.
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