NFL DFS tournaments are all about finding ceiling performance from players in our lineup. In order to maximize upside and correlation, we can use Vegas totals and game lines to help us identify game environments that may help produce these ceiling performances we’re looking for in GPPs. The goal of this article each week is to identify which games are most likely to provide the scoring environment we’re looking for in order to build game stacks in DFS. Similarly, this article will look at games that may either disappoint or are less likely to result in fantasy success.
On the surface, it sounds simple, but there’s more to this process than simply logging into a sportsbook and picking the games with the highest total. We need to be conscious of which games are likely to be most popular for DFS, which may be undervalued, and those that have more downside than the market perceives.
Note: Lines taken below from DraftKings Sportsbook are accurate at time of publishing.
Top 5 Team Implied Totals in Week 4
Fantasy points are most strongly correlated to team implied totals (how many points Vegas expects each team to score). As a result, it makes sense to look at players from the following teams, especially in cash games. This does not necessarily mean these are automatically the best games to stack in tournaments. More on that soon.
1. Buffalo Bills (32.0) vs. Houston Texans
2. Kansas City Chiefs (30.8) @ Philadelphia Eagles
3. Los Angeles Rams (30.0) vs. Arizona Cardinals
4. Cleveland Browns (28.0) @ Minnesota Vikings
5. San Francisco 49ers (27.8) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Bottom 5 Team Implied Totals in Week 4
Given the strong correlation between implied totals and fantasy success, players on the following teams could consider being faded, especially if they are likely to carry elevated roster percentage in tournaments. In cash games, it likely makes the most sense to look elsewhere.
1. Houston Texans (16.0) @ Buffalo Bills
2. New York Giants (17.8) @ New Orleans Saints
3. New York Jets (19.0) vs. Tennessee Titans
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (19.5) @ Green Bay Packers
5. Detroit Lions (19.5) @ Chicago Bears
Popular Game Stacks
Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles, KC -7, O/U: 54.5
The Chiefs offense didn’t quite get rolling the way we’re used to when they took on the Chargers in Week 3, scoring just 24 points with Patrick Mahomes committing multiple turnovers. However, this week’s matchup with the Eagles should provide little resistance, especially after Philly let Dallas hang 41 points on them on Monday night. Kansas City continues to struggle to cover the spread, so this game could be closer than most think. Since Week 1 of 2020, Kansas City is 7-12 against the spread, yet Patrick Mahomes‘ best games of his career have come on the road, where he averages 316 passing yards and 2.8 passing TD per game.
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