On Wednesday morning, we published an article about Donald Trump’s second impeachment trial that began this week. It covers all the basics:
- The “incitement of insurrection” charges,
- The trial rules and schedule,
- Debates over the constitutionality of impeaching a private citizen,
- The cornerstones of Trump’s legal defense,
- How Democratic House managers plan to make their case, and
- The likelihood of Donald Trump being convicted when the Senate finally votes.
However, there’s one thing the first article didn’t discuss:
How we can wager on Trump’s impeachment trial!
Well, that’s what we’ll do on this page. Fortunately, Bovada’s oddsmakers have provided three impeachment trial prop markets for us political handicappers.
Impeachment Recap:
Before we get into the three impeachment trial betting lines offered at Bovada, let’s review how we got here.
If you’ve been keeping up with the Senate proceedings and are all caught up on the story, skip ahead to the next section – which opens with odds on how many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump.
Within a week of Trump supporters violently storming the Capitol, the House of Representatives voted to impeach Trump.
The final tally on January 13 was 232-197 and included 10 Republican votes in favor of impeachment, making it the most bipartisan impeachment in US history. House Democrats filed a single article of impeachment, charging the former commander-in-chief with “incitement of an insurrection.”
On Tuesday, Trump’s second impeachment trial in as many years opened in the Senate, almost exactly one year after Democrats’ first attempt failed.
The House managers – led by Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland — argue that Donald Trump’s refusal to concede the election while encouraging his supporters to “fight like hell” during a speech on the morning of the riots, the President committed a seditious act, making him responsible for what happened at the Capitol.
Of course, Donald Trump has already vacated the White House and is now a private citizen.
This fact has resulted in questions concerning the constitutionality of the impeachment process. Regardless, Democrats have a majority in the Senate – thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris’s tie-breaking vote – and voted down efforts to dismiss the trial on the grounds of being unconstitutional.
Still, the punishment for being convicted is removal from office; Trump was removed from office by the American voters. If they’re able to secure a conviction, it’s believed that the Democrats will push to bar the former President from seeking future political office.
Democratic leaders say the impeachment trial is about holding Trump accountable, even if he’s no longer in power.
“Following the despicable attack on January 6, there must, there must be truth and accountability if we are going to move forward, heal and bring our country together once again,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on the Senate floor. “Sweeping something as momentous as this under the rug brings no healing whatsoever.”
Starting on Wednesday, the House managers and Trump’s defense team will each have 16 hours to make their case.
The trial schedule breaks down into the following time allotments:
- Four hours each for Senators’ questions,
- Four hours each to debate witnesses, and
- Four hours each for closing arguments.
The length of the trial will depend on the upcoming debate over calling witnesses.
- If the Senate votes in favor of hearing witness testimonies, both sides will need time to issue subpoenas and prepare.
- If they decide to forego calling witnesses, the trial will likely conclude early next week.
How Many Senators Will Vote to Convict Donald Trump on Incitement by April 29?
| # of Votes to Convict | Odds |
| 50 or Fewer | +1600 |
| 51 or 52 | +800 |
| 53 or 54 | +210 |
| 55 or 56 | +180 |
| 57 or 58 | +800 |
| 59 or 60 | +2000 |
| 61 or 62 | +5000 |
| 63 or 64 | +10000 |
| 65 or 66 | +10000 |
| 67 or More | +10000 |
The question on everyone’s mind is how many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump at the end of this trial.
However, there are subtle signs the final tally may include more support for conviction than early Senate tallies suggest. If so, there’s serious betting value in picking 56 or more votes.
50-50 Senate Split
The Democrats secured a Senate majority by winning both Georgia runoff elections, resulting in a 50-50 split of the upper chamber. Since Joe Biden won the Presidency, his Vice President, Kamala Harris, is President of the Senate and the tie-breaking vote – giving the Democratic Party control of the chamber.
The only remaining question is how many Republicans will join them.
They’ll need at least 17 GOP members to cross the aisle to secure a two-thirds majority, and thus a conviction. However, early votes on trial rules suggest most Republican Senators are sticking with Trump.
Rand Paul’s Pre-Trial Motion
Two weeks ago, while the Senate was still working out the rules, Republican Sen. Rand Paul proposed a motion to dismiss the impeachment process altogether, arguing that it would be unconstitutional to hold a trial for a private citizen.
While Democrats ultimately defeated the measure, only five Republican Senators broke with their party and voted to proceed with President Trump’s impeachment trial.
The 55-45 result, conveyed strong GOP opposition to holding an impeachment trial, suggesting the final juror vote will fall well short of the 67 required to convict Trump.
All have been vocal critics of Donald Trump, especially since the January 6 siege of the Capitol. Romney was the only GOP Senator to vote to convict Trump during his previous impeachment trial.
Sen. Paul’s motion may have been blocked, but Republicans viewed the 55-45 outcome as a big win.
Had fewer than 34 Republican lawmakers sided with the Kentucky Senator, it would have signaled a likely conviction verdict for Trump. Paul told reporters that the result indicates the impeachment trial would be “dead on arrival.”
“We’re excited about it,” Rand Paul told the press after the vote. “It was one of the few times in Washington where a loss is actually a victory.”
Tuesday’s Arguments about Constitutionality
The conversation about the constitutionality of the Senate process came up again on Tuesday. Both sides had two hours to present their arguments.
Republicans repeated their contention that the Senate lacked the authority to continue the proceedings since the goal of impeachment is to remove a president from office and Trump is no longer in power.
This time, six Republicans joined the Democrats in upholding the Senate trial’s constitutionality, bringing the total to 56 – 44. They’re still 11 votes shy of a two-thirds majority but are gaining ground.
Bill Cassidy was the only Republican Senator to switch his vote; could this be a sign that other conservative lawmakers are open to breaking ranks with Trump’s wing of the GOP?
Sen. Cassidy explained that his change of heart was motivated by Tuesday’s opening presentations:
“The House managers were focused, they were organized … they made a compelling argument. President Trump’s team, they were disorganized. … One side is doing a great job and the other side is doing a terrible job. … As an impartial juror, I’m going to vote for the side that did the good job.”
Much like Rep. Liz Cheney before him, Cassidy immediately came under fire from GOP officials from his home state of Louisiana.
“The Republican Party of Louisiana is profoundly disappointed by Senator Bill Cassidy’s vote,” they said in a statement Tuesday. “We feel that an impeachment trial of a private citizen is not only an unconstitutional act, but also an attack on the very foundation of American democracy, which will have far reaching and unforeseen consequences for our republic.”
Trump is still an incredibly influential figure amongst conservative voters.
Louisiana GOP quickly rebukes Sen Cassidy, saying it is “profoundly disappointed” he backed the Trump trial. “We feel that an impeachment trial of a private citizen is not only an unconstitutional act, but also an attack on the very foundation of American democracy …”
— Carl Hulse (@hillhulse) February 9, 2021
Seeing the swift backlash against Republicans with the Democrats during the impeachment process could make other GOP members of the Senate reluctant to convict the former President.
Will More Republicans Flip?
The Republican Party is divided.
There are two wings of the party duking it out to determine the GOP’s future:
- Establishment Republicans led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and
- President Trump and his supporters. “Trumpism” often takes on a more working-class, anti-establishment tone.
If Donald Trump is convicted for inciting insurrection, it will be because Mitch McConnell whipped the Republican votes.
The Minority Leader has recently shown signs he’s ready to purge the former President from his party and return the GOP to Reagan’s corporatist, free-market fundamentalist center.
On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that McConnell encouraged his fellow Republicans to vote with their conscience – even informing them that senators who disputed the trial’s constitutionality could still vote to convict Donald Trump.
The Senate Minority Leader has also told sources that he hasn’t decided how he’ll vote. This is a crucial point because McConnell has twice voted to declare the impeachment trial unconstitutional.
One week after the Capitol riots, the New York Times reported that McConnell favored impeaching Trump:
“Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, has told associates that he believes President Trump committed impeachable offenses and that he is pleased that Democrats are moving to impeach him, believing that it will make it easier to purge him from the party, according to people familiar with his thinking.”
According to CNN, if Mitch McConnell wants Donald Trump convicted, he’ll be convicted:
“Several GOP sources said on Tuesday that if McConnell supports conviction, Trump almost certainly will be convicted by 67 senators in the impeachment trial.
“‘If Mitch is a yes, he’s done,’ said one Senate GOP source who asked not to be named.
“Many Republican senators are staying quiet about whether they’ll back conviction — a sign that they, too, could support conviction in an effort to rid Trump from their party.”
How Many Votes to Convict?
It sounds like the Minority Leader wants to lock the former President out of the GOP for good, which he can only accomplish by disqualifying Trump from holding office. Otherwise, the prospect of Donald running again will hang over the heads of Republican leadership for at least the next four years.
Due to the sizable payouts, I’d consider placing small bets on each of the number ranges above 56 votes to convict.
If you have $100 to stake, put:
- $50 on “57 or 58”
- $25 on “59 or 60”
- $10 on “61 or 62”
- and $5 on each of the three +10000 markets.
When Will the Senate Vote on Whether to Convict Donald Trump?
| Date | Odds |
| Before February 12, 2021 | +1600 |
| February 12, 2021 | +400 |
| February 13, 2021 | +800 |
| February 14, 2021 | +1100 |
| February 15, 2021 | +1100 |
| February 16, 2021 | +1200 |
| February 17, 2021 | +1350 |
| February 18, 2021 | +1350 |
| February 19, 2021 | +1350 |
Bovada is also offering odds on when the final impeachment vote will take place. To date, all signs point to a relatively speedy trial that’s finished by early next week. The only way it will take longer is if Senate jurors vote in favor of hearing witness testimonies.
Starting on Wednesday at noon, the House managers have 16 hours over two days to make their case for conviction. Trump’s defense team has the same amount of time to respond with their arguments for acquittal.
After both sides present their arguments, Senate jurors have up to four hours to question both teams. It during this stage of the trial that they’ll decide whether to call live witnesses.
If House managers believe they’ll benefit from first-hand accounts of the chaos at the Capitol on January 6, it could add several days to the trial.
“After the Q&A, the two legal teams will debate the need to subpoena witnesses and documents. The Senate will vote and a majority will be required in order to carry forward with these subpoenas. It’s not yet clear if House impeachment managers will try to call witnesses. It’s also not clear if a Republican would side with Democrats in favor of calling them. Trump has already indicated he will not take the stand.
“There are arguments in favor of calling witnesses — a full accounting and complete trial of an insurrection against the government — and against: Time taken up deposing witnesses in the impeachment trial will slow down and potentially muddy the water for the Covid relief package Biden is pushing through Congress. If there are witnesses, it would take time for both sides to prepare and a subsequent Senate agreement would have to be reached. All that would seem to suggest witnesses will not be called.”
I suspect the House managers will rely on their video presentations to tell the story of January 6 without dragging the trial out longer to call witnesses. Democrats want to make their case, show Trump’s GOP allies in the worse light possible, and then wrap things up while the public’s emotions are still raw.
I’ve come to know one universal truth in my time covering political betting: Democrats live for theatrics and symbolic gestures. Think Nancy Pelosi – and other congressional Dems — wearing kente clothe and taking a knee in the Capitol for George Floyd.
Will the Senate Convict Donald Trump in Biden’s First 100 Days?
American Odds
- Matchup Odds
- No-6600
- Yes+1200
The trial will conclude within Joe Biden’s first 30 days, but securing a conviction is less certain. So far, Republicans have been reluctant to cross Trump and his passionate supporters. They prefer to hide behind the issue of constitutionality, allowing them to vote to acquit the former President without offering an opinion on what took place on January 6.
Here are some quotes from GOP Senators:
Rand Paul (R-Ky):
“Zero chance of conviction,” said Paul in response to a question about Trump being convicted. “Forty-five Republicans have said it’s not even a legitimate proceeding so it’s really over before it starts. As far as witnesses, I think unlikely to be witnesses; if they do want witnesses, there’s going to be so much evidence that the President had nothing to do with this.”
Tom Cotton (R-Ark):
“I think it’s beyond the Senate’s constitutional authority to have an impeachment proceeding, the point of which is to convict and remove from office a man who left office three weeks ago.”
Lindsey Graham (R-SC):
“What we do [Tuesday] is going to make history for the time America exists. What Democrats have done is basically declared war on the Presidency itself. The impeachment in the House took place without a hearing, without one witness being called, and without a lawyer for the President of the United States. You can’t get a traffic ticket based on the procedures they used to impeach President Trump.”
Tim Scott (R-SC):
“I was in the chamber when the rioters were coming over. I was taking my jacket off, my tie off, rolling my sleeves up, just in case I had to fight. The chances of me understanding, appreciating the severity of the situation is 100%. The one person I don’t blame for that situation is President Trump. I don’t blame the nonviolent protesters outside. I blame the individuals coming in the chamber, coming in the building. So the Democrats should put the blame where it stands, where it should be, and that does not have to do with the President who said ‘go peacefully to protest.’”
Republican support appears to remain firmly behind Donald Trump.
That said, look at the betting lines!
It’s pointless to bet “No” at –6600.
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