The opening weekend of the 2021 NCAA Tournament saw plenty of madness, including seeing four double-digit seeds advance to the second weekend and the Midwest No. 1 seed Illinois going down to Loyola Chicago last Saturday. When the smoke cleared, three No. 1 seeds, two No. 2 seeds, one No. 3 seed, and only one No. 4 seed remained.
There is still plenty of gambling left to do this March and plenty of money to be made.
*Odds courtesy of MyBookie sportsbook.
Two for One
Sat. 2:40 p.m. ET – No. 12 Oregon State vs. No. 8 Loyola Chicago (-7) O/U: 126
This game between two teams who aren’t supposed to be here produces double the wagering pleasure. Listen up to learn which of the underdogs you should be backing before they tip it off Saturday afternoon.
The No. 12 seed Beavers sat at 14-12 heading into the Pac-12 tournament before riding red-hot shooting to win their conference tournament. And their roll did not stop there. Oregon State picked up double-digit wins as an underdog against both No. 5 seed Tennessee and No. 4 seed Oklahoma State in the first two rounds of the NCAAs. The Beavers shot 47 percent from three in the opening round against the Volunteers to pull off the upset before using defense to defeat the Cowboys in the round of 32, holding Oklahoma State to 27-percent shooting from the field.
Meanwhile, the Ramblers of Loyola Chicago also have picked up two double-digit wins to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, defeating ACC tournament champion Georgia Tech in the first round, and then defeating No. 1 seed and Big Ten tournament champion Illinois in the second round. Loyola Chicago’s defense absolutely neutralized anything the Fighting Illini tried to get going last Sunday, forcing 17 turnovers and winning the rebounding battle against a bigger team.
The opening matchup of the Sweet Sixteen is going to be a rock fight, and the Ramblers are more than fine with that. Loyola Chicago’s defense has shut down better-shooting teams than Oregon State this season and should have no difficulty forcing turnovers and making the Beavers uncomfortable.
The Ramblers led the country this season in points per game allowed, as opponents averaged a measly 56.1 points per game this season against them. That marks the best in Division I by over two points allowed per game.
Loyola Chicago head coach Porter Moser already has led this team to one Final Four back in 2018 and he has figured out a way to make teams uncomfortable in March. Loyola Chicago will be able to stop any offensive attack Oregon State throws at them and win this game by double figures, more than likely holding the Beavers under 55 points.
Pick One of Two: Loyola Chicago -7 (-110)
This is not the only bet to make on the Ramblers. Loyola Chicago currently is at +140 to win the Midwest Region and they should be able to make their second Final Four in the last three tournaments. The other matchup in the region is No. 2 seed Houston and No. 11 seed Syracuse.
While Syracuse could not miss on the opening weekend, they will run into problems in a hypothetical matchup against the Ramblers who love to slow the game down. Houston likes to play at the same pace at Loyola Chicago, but the Ramblers are the hotter team right now and are playing with house money and loads of confidence. The Ramblers are going to make the Elite Eight, and getting them at +140 against either Houston or Syracuse is a great value.
Pick One of Two: Loyola Chicago To Win the Midwest Region (+140)
Go Over and Above, and Here’s Why
Sat. 7:25 p.m. No. 15 Oral Roberts vs. No. 3 Arkansas (-11) O/U:159
The Golden Eagles are without a doubt the Cinderella team of the tournament after knocking off No. 2 seed Ohio State in overtime to start their tournament and then coming back two nights later to defeat No. 7 Florida 81-78.
Oral Roberts is led by Max Abmas, who leads the country in scoring with 24.5 points per game, Abmas averaged 27.5 points per game on the opening weekend and made a total of 16 threes in the process. Finding a way to deal with him will be a major emphasis for the Arkansas defense on Saturday evening.
The Razorbacks reached the Sweet Sixteen, but it was not without a couple of scares along the way. Arkansas overcame a halftime deficit against No. 14 Colgate to advance to the Round of 32, where a last-second defensive stand secured a two-point win over No. 6 seed Texas Tech.
Despite all of the offensive firepower in the Razorbacks backcourt, it was forward Justin Smith who led the team in scoring with 29- and 20-point performances, respectively, in the first two rounds to get them to the second weekend.
Musselman sought out teams he believed were NCAA Tournament teams to play in the non-conference when scheduling Oral Roberts, showing them respect before anyone else knew of their NCAA potential. However, it is highly unlikely he saw a rematch coming in the Sweet Sixteen.
The first matchup was on Dec. 20 when Arkansas picked up an 87-76 win. The Golden Eagles held a double-digit lead at halftime before the Razorbacks got out and ran. Arkansas was led by forward Justin Smith in that game as well, as he scored 22 points and racked up 17 rebounds. The Razorbacks also were able to contain the usually explosive Abmas in that contest, as Abmas scored just 11 points on 1-of-6 shooting from beyond the arc as the two teams combined for 163 points.
This game will see a ton of points again and Abmas should have a much bigger game because the Razorbacks are getting torched from beyond the arc so far in the NCAA Tournament. (For evidence, see what transpired in their opening-round matchup against Colgate.
Oral Roberts boasts the best free throw percentage in the country so when they get to the line, they will take advantage. Not to mention, Arkansas will dominate the glass in this one and get a ton of easy second-chance points. The Golden Eagles will not be afraid of the Razorbacks despite their SEC pedigree, considering they already have hung with them once this season.
Expect Arkansas to win, but Oral Roberts will keep this game close enough to force the Razorbacks to keep their foot on the gas and get this game well into the 80s. It is a high O/U betting total, but there is a reason for that. Take the Over 159 points in what should be a fun shootout and then you won’t even have to worry about who wins the game.
The Pick: Over 159 points (-110)
Woof! Woof! Take the Dog in This One
Sat. 9:55 p.m. ET – No. 11 Syracuse vs. No. 2 Houston (-6) O/U: 140
The Orange are back at it again as a double-digit seed in March, winning two games as an underdog to advance to yet another Sweet Sixteen. This time Syracuse did it by defeating No. 6 seed San Diego State and No. 3 seed West Virginia. A different Boheim leads this team, as guard Buddy Boeheim averaged 27.5 points in the first two games while making 13 threes for his father, Coach Jim Boeheim.
The Cougars cruised to an opening-round win over No. 15 seed Cleveland State, but found themselves in trouble late against No. 10 seed Rutgers before a three-point play the old-fashioned way in the final seconds propelled them into the lead and then a late steal secured them a 63-60 victory. The American Athletic Conference tournament champions find a No. 8, 11, and 12 seed in between them and the sixth Final Four berth in program history, which suddenly seems very appetizing and achievable than ever before.
The Cougars are going to have to make this game ugly if they want to win. Expect the Orange to knock down some early threes to make the Cougars uncomfortable. Syracuse forced 14 West Virginia turnovers and plenty of bad shots that acted as turnovers. The Orange are playing confident basketball right now and should be able to pull off yet another upset to advance to the Elite Eight.
The Pick: Syracuse Moneyline (+215)
A First-Half Lock and the Big Picture
Sun. 2:10 p.m. ET – No. 5 Creighton vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (-13.5) O/U:158
The Blue Jays were a popular choice to be upset early in this tournament, but were able to survive a valiant upset attempt by No. 12 Santa Barbara in the first round and then dominated No. 13 Ohio from start to finish in impressive fashion to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. Their reward for that? A matchup against the team that no one wants to face in this NCAA Tournament.
That would be No.1 overall seed Gonzaga, which cruised to the second weekend after dominant wins against No.16 Norfolk State and No. 8 Oklahoma. The unbeaten Bulldogs can beat you in so many ways and the Sooners quickly found out that it was going to be big man Drew Timme in the Round of 32. Timme scored 30 points and 13 rebounds in a monster performance that quieted a hot start from Oklahoma and produced a double-digit lead for the Zags by the half.
Expect Mark Few to have his guys ready to play out of the gate in this one after the slow start against Oklahoma and take the Bulldogs to cover the first-half spread of 7.5 points. Taking the first-half spread prevents a backdoor cover from Creighton in the final minutes if Gonzaga pulls its starters.
And as bonus thought, at his point don’t overthink the big picture. No one in this tournament has yet shown the chops to be able to knock off this Gonzaga squad and deny them the national championship they seem destined to secure. It’s not a bad idea to make the play for them to win it all while you can still glean some value from it.
The Pick: Gonzaga -7.5 1H (-105)
The “Don’t Overthink It” Bonus Bet: Gonzaga (+140) To Win the National Championship
Upset Special No. 2
Sun. 5:00 p.m. ET – No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 1 Michigan (-2.5) O/U:144
The Seminoles advanced to the second weekend after getting somewhat of a scare put into them by well-coached No. 13 seed UNC-Greensboro, but found their form in a blowout win over talented No. 5 Colorado. Guard Anthony Polite was anything but against the Buffaloes defense, torching them for 22 points on 8-of-12 shooting from the field. Florida State held a 24-20 lead at the half before exploding for 47 points in the second half to create separation en route to picking up an 18-point win.
The Wolverines dominated No. 16 Texas Southern in their opener as expected before being pushed to the brink by No. 8 LSU before pulling away in the final minutes for a 79-70 win. Michigan forward Isiah Livers did not play on the opening weekend because of an ankle injury and all signs point to him remaining on the sidelines for the second weekend as well.
Guards Chaundee Brown Jr. and Eli Brooks stepped up in a big way, pouring in 21 points each, to stave off elimination. Center Hunter Dickinson recorded a double-double and will need to keep stacking together big games if this team wants to continue playing this season.
Florida State can score with Michigan, but the big difference between them and LSU is on the defensive side of the ball. The Seminoles allowed a full seven points less per game than the Tigers and that should be enough to keep them in the game even if their shooting goes cold for possessions at a time. Florida State has enough size, length, and athleticism to make the Wolverines uncomfortable on both ends of the floor.
The difference-maker in this game should be future lottery pick guard Scottie Barnes for the Seminoles. He has primarily facilitated so far in the tournament but should be able to get some points for himself against the Michigan guards. Expect Florida State to exploit the loss of Isiah Livers similar to the way Ohio State did in the Big Ten tournament and end the East region’s No. 1 seed’s season on Sunday evening.
The Pick: Florida State ML (+125)
https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/ncaa-tournament-six-pack-of-betting-picks-for-the-sweet-sixteen/
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