NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Picks for Tuesday

We’ve got two more Elite Eight games on Tuesday Night: USC vs. Gonzaga and UCLA vs. Michigan. Will a one seed fall and miss their chance at a final four? Here are the best bets.

USC Trojans vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs

Tuesday, March 30, 2021 – 7:15 PM EST at Lucas Oil Stadium

USC will look to be the first team to beat Gonzaga this season. The Trojans have been the best defense inside the arc this season while Gonzaga has been the best offense inside the arc this season. Things are getting interesting in the Elite Eight.

The Matchup

Everyone is waiting for the moment where Gonzaga folds. Some believe the Gonzaga defense is weak and could be exposed while others believe this team is the best of all time. Gonzaga is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 61.2 percent and rarely turn the ball over. They’re also top 100 in offensive rebounding and getting to the line this season. The Bulldogs shoot 37.3 percent from long range and a whopping 63.9 percent inside. They’re also 73.6 percent from the foul line and get there at a solid rate.

Defensively, Gonzaga is allowing teams to shoot an effective field goal percentage of 47.2 percent and force turnovers about once every five possessions. They’re also very dominant on the defensive glass and limit opponents from getting to the line as they’re 37th in the country. Teams are shooting 32.1 percent from long range and 46.7 percent from inside against Gonzaga. These are above average numbers, but numbers that aren’t ridiculously good. That’s where many think a team like USC can take advantage.

USC, on the other hand, is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 53.1 percent and dominates the offensive glass behind the Mobley brothers. They’re also 36.3 percent from long range and 52.5 percent from inside on the season. However, they just can’t hit free throws, shooting 64.6 percent from the line. That could be the difference in the game.

If the game remains tight, it’ll be because of USC’s defense where they’ve limited opponents to a 44.5 percent effective field goal percentage. They won’t turn the ball over often and Gonzaga should win that battle but they’ll defend at a higher rate inside, allowing teams to shoot just 41.5 percent inside. Still, opponents are hitting 33.3 percent from long range, although Gonzaga isn’t a heavy three point shooting team, just like USC.

I’m anticipating a closer game than most would think and I believe Gonzaga is getting too many points on the top sportsbooks.

NCAAB Pick: USC +8.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

USC +8.5(-110)

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UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan Wolverines

Tuesday, March 30, 2021 - 9:57 PM EST at Lucas Oil Stadium

The UCLA Bruins started the tournament in the First Four game against Michigan State. Now they take on a Michigan team that had a loss against Michigan State earlier this year. Can UCLA continue their improbable tournament run against another Big Ten team?

The Matchup

UCLA has played in three overtime games in their last five games and have also played the most games in the NCAA Tournament due to playing in the First Four to begin the tournament. They’re going to have tired legs and that should be the difference on defense. UCLA is ranked 54th in defense on KenPom and has allowed teams to hit 33.8 percent from deep and 49.8 percent from inside. They’re also not a big threat to create turnovers.

Offensively, the Bruins also won’t turn the ball over very often and while Michigan forced a bunch of turnovers against Florida State in their last game, that was mainly Florida State making bad decisions. UCLA won’t make those poor decisions on offense and should be able to get plenty of shot attempts along with offensive rebounds and second chances.

The Bruins shoot 37.2 percent from long range and 50.1 percent inside. They haven’t been the best inside this season and could struggle against Michigan’s interior defense. However, this team has now taken plenty of threes in the tournament and should continue that against Michigan knowing that it’ll be hard to score inside.

The Wolverines are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 55.1 percent and won’t turn the ball over much either. So again, we’re going to see plenty of shots and less turnovers in this game between two teams that have been solid on the offensive glass as well. Michigan has nailed 38.3 percent from deep and 53.9 percent from inside and should have no problems continuing these averages against UCLA in the first place.

Both teams are shooting above average from the foul line and should get there at a higher percentage than these defenses are used to seeing.

With that said, I like the over in this one. I expected 140+ for the number and it’s sitting at 134.5 right at the betting sites.

NCAAB Pick: Over 134.5 (-110) at BetOnline

Over 134.5(-110)

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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

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