NCAA College Football Week 4: Best Underdog Picks

Can you believe that we’re already heading into Week 4 of the college football season? It feels like the season just started the other day. As much as I like fall football, just slow down already. We’ve come close to having some big playoff busting losses already this season. I’m not going to call a ranked Oregon team beating a ranked Ohio State team a playoff buster, but Tulane almost beating Oklahoma, and then most recently Georgia Tech and Clemson were close.

Georgia Tech nearly pulled off the upset of the week against Clemson. The Tigers needed a big stop late to prevent a loss versus the upset minded Yellow Jackets. If we’re looking at talent alone on both sides, it shouldn’t have come down to that for Clemson. However, Clemson survived and earned a 14-8 win at home. In another close call, Alabama fended off a late surge by Florida.

Still the last Florida quarterback to defeat Alabama… pic.twitter.com/SmQ8IQsA1q

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) September 18, 2021

The Gators were a 2-point conversion away from tying the game up with minutes remaining in the contest. They came up short at the goal line on a QB option that looked disjointed. Unfortunately, that wasn’t going to work against the Alabama defense to tie things up 31-29. I was pulling for an upset, and oh, I had OVER 60, so yeah.

Nebraska was competitive in Norman, as the Sooners looked ordinary for the second time in three games. The Cornhuskers played hard, but came a touchdown away from forcing overtime. That effort takes a bit of pressure off Scott Frost for the moment, though he will have to start winning big games in the Big Ten.

SPARTANS WERE ROLLING IN SOUTH FLORIDA 👀

Payton Thorne tosses 4 TDs as Michigan State takes down No. 24 Miami, 38-17! pic.twitter.com/S6JyiXY5ZM

— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) September 18, 2021

In the most impressive upset of the week, or at least from what I watched, the Michigan State Spartans looked great in Miami. They went on the road to win as 7-touchdown underdogs in impressive fashion. Michigan State was the better team for 4 quarters, as the Spartans pulled away for a 38-17 win. It looks like Michigan State got it right with hiring Mel Tucker. Let’s take a quick look at three teams that could have a good shot at an upset in Week 4.

• Where To Bet On College Football in 2021

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Virginia Cavaliers

Date and Time: September 24, 7:00 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

The Virginia Cavaliers are licking their wounds after getting run off the field by Sam Howell and the Tar Heels. Their hapless defense had no chance, as North Carolina rolled Virginia by a score of 59-39. Howell ended the game with 307 passing yards, 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception through the air.

Howell also hit the ground running with 112 yards and 7.5 yards per carry. The Tar Heels probably could have scored more if they wanted. The silver lining of the 20-point loss is Brennan Armstrong and the Virginia offense. Armstrong looked sharp with 554 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception.

Final from Chapel Hill.

See you at Scott on Friday. #GoHoos | #THEStandard pic.twitter.com/ec8ssFfv7D

— Virginia Football (@UVAFootball) September 19, 2021

That was the first real offense that Virginia had to deal with and it didn’t go well. William & Mary and Illinois weren’t a measuring stick by any means. North Carolina did whatever they wanted to do on the Virginia defense. The Cavaliers are going to face a sneaky good offense in Week 4 against the Demon Deacons.

Wake Forest is a 3-0 team going into this week with a 42-10 win over Old Dominion, 41-16 over Norfolk State, and most recently a 35-14 win against Florida State. That win was an absolute dagger to Florida State.

This is a Seminoles team that went to overtime with Notre Dame, and then lost to Jacksonville State in a monster upset, and then the loss last week. They must have just thought their season was done after the Notre Dame loss. Florida State will rightfully get criticized, but let’s give credit to an underrated Wake Forest team.

The Demon Deacons have a good quarterback in Sam Hartman, and three talented running backs. Hartman is going into Friday with 691 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He should be able to exploit a defense that is reeling after last week’s debacle in Chapel Hill.

I’m anticipating an entertaining game in this one. I am not interested in laying points with a team that didn’t play a down of defense against North Carolina. The Demon Deacons are Tar Heels lite, but still believed Hartman can find openings to move the ball.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Trends:

Wake Forest

• 4-1 overall in their previous six games versus Virginia
• 6-0 ATS in their previous six games versus Virginia
• 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games on the road versus Virginia
• 5-1 ATS in their previous six games versus the ACC
• 7-3 overall in their previous ten games

Virginia

• 6-2 overall in their previous eight games
• 6-0 ATS in their previous six games at Virginia
• 1-6 ATS in their previous seven games versus Wake Forest
• OVER is 14-5 in their previous 15 games
• OVER is 8-1 in their previous nine games versus a team with a winning record

Texas A&M Aggies (No. 7) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (No. 16)

Date and Time: September 25, 3:30 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

The Texas A&M Aggies are back on the road after walking past the New Mexico Lobos last week. That’s all they had to do is walk to beat New Mexico. It was a good game with Texas A&M shutting out the Lobos for a 34-0 win.

Two of their three wins have been against Kent State, 41-10, and New Mexico, 34-0. The one team they’ve played that is halfway decent gave the Aggies a fight in Boulder. It was a defensive battle, with Texas A&M just holding on for a 10-7 win.

Hogs are 3-0 😤 pic.twitter.com/cdBFrzatGZ

— Arkansas Razorback Football (@RazorbackFB) September 19, 2021

Zach Calzada passed for 183 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. It was enough to edge out Colorado two weeks ago. If the Texas A&M offense isn’t going to do any better, they are likely going to have problems against the Razorbacks on the road.

This is going to be a tough environment to play in at Razorback Stadium. Arkansas’ fans believe in this team, and an upset over No. 7 Texas A&M would put them back on the map. I can’t remember the Razorbacks being much since the Ryan Mallett era. Their defense looks like they’re in business this season.

Arkansas had a statement win at home two weeks ago. They dispatched the Texas Longhorns in an upset, 40-21. You wouldn’t have known that Arkansas were the underdogs in that one. They had six runners that gained at least 6.3 yards per carry, including quarterback KJ Jefferson who ran for 73 yards and 7.3 yards a carry.

I can see this one being a defensive battle between the Aggie and Razorback defenses. The line looks a tad shady, with the No. 7 team in the country going to attract plenty of money to cover. However, going to AT&T Stadium isn’t going to be an easy trip. It should be tougher than many anticipate.

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Trends:

Texas A&M

• 10-0 overall in their previous ten games
• 9-0 overall in their previous nine games versus Arkansas
• 7-0 overall in their previous seven games versus the SEC
• 7-2 ATS in their previous nine games in Week 4
• 4-1 ATS in their previous five games after a win

Arkansas

• 12-3 ATS in their previous 15 games
• 8-4 ATS in their previous 12 games versus Texas A&M
• 5-0 ATS in their previous five games in September
• 8-2 ATS in their previous ten games versus an ATS win
• 10-3 ATS in their previous 13 games as an underdog

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators (No. 11)

Date and Time: September 25, 7:00 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

The Florida Gators just about did the unthinkable and bounced the Alabama Crimson Tide last week. Perhaps if their kicker didn’t miss an extra point early in the game, or they converted a 2-point conversion late, we’d be talking about a big upset for the Gators. That wasn’t the case, though, as Alabama escaped Gainesville with a 31-29 win.

They stayed around in that game as a result of their attack on the ground. Malik Davis carried the rock for 96 yards and a touchdown on 9.6 yards per carry Quarterback Emory Jones gained 80 yards on 4.2 yards per carry. Jones and Davis both chipped in with a score on the ground for 6 points.

It’s Game Week! #GoGators pic.twitter.com/8eEckBs198

— Gators Football (@GatorsFB) September 20, 2021

Jones didn’t pass the ball well, which ended up being the difference in the contest. He completed 17 of 27 passes with 181 yards and an interception. If Anthony Richardson was healthy enough to play in that game would we have had a different outcome? I think so. Richardson has all the makings of a future star.

Tennessee is coming off a 56-0 blowout over Tennessee Tech. That doesn’t prove much. In their other two games, the Volunteers beat Bowling Green, 38-6, and a loss against Pittsburgh 41-34. Hendon Hooker could be the x-factor in this one against Florida.

Hooker passed for 188 yards with 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, and 49 rushing yards on 5.4 yards per carry versus Pittsburgh. He got the start against Tennessee Tech and was in command with 199 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 64 rushing yards with a score on the ground. This is a grand opportunity for Hooker to steal the starting job.

Florida looked ordinary in a 42-20 win against a terrible South Florida team the week before Bama. They were in a lookahead spot and didn’t show much interest in the Bulls. On the other side of the Alabama game, this could be a letdown for Florida.

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators Betting Trends:

Tennessee

• 3-8 ATS in their previous 11 games
• 2-6 ATS in their previous eight SEC games
• 1-6 ATS in their previous seven games versus a team with a winning record
• 1-5 ATS in their previous six games as an underdog
• UNDER is 13-5 in their previous 18 games

Florida

• 12-2 overall in their previous 14 games at Florida
• 8-0 overall in their previous eight games versus Tennessee at Florida
• 15-4 overall in their previous 19 games
• OVER is 4-2 in their previous six games