Monday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Everton (April 12)

Brighton vs. Everton Odds

Things could get pretty interesting in Premier League action Monday when Brighton & Hove Albion hosts Everton in a showdown that could have major implications on each club’s futures.

The Seagulls enter this contest fresh off a frustrating 2-1 defeat against Manchester United at Old Trafford last time out. The road setback snapped their two-game winning streak, keeping them in 16th place on 32 points.

On the other side, the Toffees have been anything but themselves as of late. Positioned in eighth place in the table, they’ve gone winless in their last three league contests and most recently settled for a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace.

It was quite a barnburner the last time these sides met, with Everton capturing a 4-2 victory on home soil at Goodison Park. James Rodríguez finished with two goals and Dominic Calvert-Lewin opened the scoring in the Oct. 3 match, which at the time kept the club perfect on the season.

Let’s take a look at these combatants and see what might be in store.

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Brighton

I really don’t even know where to begin when it comes to this embattled side. Honestly, I’ve had the Seagulls sitting right around the bottom half of the league’s top 10 much of the campaign. Unfortunately, Brighton has come up short way too many times and finds itself only six points clear of the drop zone.

The Seagulls have some of the prettiest advances metrics you’d ever find from a team in the bottom five of a major European league. The Toffees sit on 41.8 xG and respectable 30.2 xGA, generating an +11.6 xGDiff and +0.39 xGDiff/90 minutes. Their xGDiff is good enough for fifth overall in the 20-team league.

Neal Maupay continues to lead the line for Brighton, scoring a team-best eight goals so far. He’s going to need additional help down the stretch if the club hopes to create some distance between itself and the others in the not-so-far-off distance.

Suffice it to say, the Seagulls have been their own worst enemy and should never be in the position they’re in. Brighton should be going after a spot in next season’s European football instead of looking in the rear-view mirror.

Everton

Manager Carlo Ancelotti can’t be too pleased with his side’s performances in recent weeks, but has to feel a little bit fortunate it’s still in the hunt for a berth in either Champions League and Europa League next season.

Everton is just five points behind fifth-place Liverpool and seven points away from Chelsea, which currently holds the fourth and final UCL berth. Losses to the Blues (2-0) and lowly Burnley (2-1) preceded the draw with Crystal Palace, giving the Toffees a single point through their last three fixtures.

Ancelotti’s men probably deserved better in that aforementioned stalemate with the Eagles, due to the fact they held a massive 2.7-0.8 edge in the expected-goals battle.

The Toffees will surely see this match as a chance to right the ship against the Seagulls, who are in the midst of an extremely bizarre campaign that’s been filled with shocking results and missed opportunities galore.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Bottom line: I don’t trust Brighton against Everton — or any other club for that matter — when it comes to needing a result in an important spot.

I’ve said it numerous times over the course of the season that I firmly believe this is possibly the best bottom-five club in league history. Yet, at the the same time, the Seagulls are without question one of the most underachieving outfits the league has ever seen.

That said, I am backing Everton via the Draw No Bet line at +135 odds as my top pick. This is the perfect spot for the Toffees to end their uncharacteristic slide, which will keep them back in the European soccer hunt.

I will also sprinkle a little on Calvert-Lewin to score anytime at ripe +205 odds. The Everton talisman opened the scoring in that October fixture, so look for him to add another goal to his account in the Golden Boot race.

Pick: Everton — Draw No Bet (+135) | Dominic Calvert-Lewin To Score Anytime — Yes (+205)

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