Best Sports Picks Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier Gilbert Burns and Stephen Wonderboy Thompson Ilia Topuria jennifer maia Kris Moutinho vs Sean O’Malley Meisha Tate vs Marion Reneau Omari Akhmedov UFC 264

Monday MMA Mashup – UFC July 12

July 13, 2021
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Well, that just happened…

I am still not sure exactly how it happened yet but Conor Mcgregor broke his tibia and has already had surgery. He said it was a clean break but that Dustin Poirier should be celebrating the win.

Was it a fluke?

I don’t think the win was a fluke at all but the way it happened, yea…Even if Conor did break the leg or at least start the crack in the bone before it broke, I really don’t think it was anything Dustin did to make it happen.

Here is a quick vid with some good shots of how the leg break may have begun. Dustin Praraya as the narrator says checked it here and he did point and Dustin, of course, echoed this sentiment in his post fight interview.

There is another theory though:
That is that the break began just seconds before it ended and there is actually better video evidence of this happening. Both, of course, could still be true and I think that makes more sense because what you’re about to see is Conor’s leg folding over as he lands high up on the quad.

I have never seen a shin bone break from landing on the quadriceps, though, so I think in this case, both may be true.

This is a post from the legendary John Wayne Parr, a multiple time world champion in Muay Thai from Australia. He is a great follow and a remarkable story. If you haven’t heard of him before, I recommend reading up on the guy because he has to be one of my favorite humans on earth.

If you can find a way to dislike this guy then you, my friend, are truly a hater. Get some help.

His opinion is one that I trust, but since he is so likable, we don’t get much of an opinion from such a humble man. Does that mean that my ego is the size of Texas? Because I have opinions growing out of opinions that are pregnant with more opinions.

What a wild night it was!
Either way, though, Dustin Poirier got the win fair, and square and Conor McGregor lost even more fans by the way he talked about the fight afterwards. I don’t blame him, though. The man is a competitor, and he lost after his leg seemingly broke in half on its own.

Elsewhere on the fight card, Gilbert Durinho Burns surprised a lot of people by taking down Stephen Wonderboy Thompson several times to win a unanimous decision 29-28 on all three judges’ score cards.

We picked Gil to get the win when the fight was first announced back in April.

However, saw the opportunity to hedge closer to the fight with a bet on the Karateka to win by decision for (+160). We got Burns at (+135), and a Wonderboy submission was pretty much out of the cards, so that just left a TKO by him as the only result that could beat us.

Putting an even amount of money on each fight, guaranteed us at least a 17.5 % return on our investment. We are sitting at a 19% return on your investment over the past 21 months of UFC betting, so this was around our average and even if it brings it down a bit.

It is still plenty enough to make us successful in the long term.

I want to get above that 20% mark and stay there, but it is hard. Overall, we had a solid night of betting. Let’s review how well we did and also do a quick glimpse ahead to next week’s betting opportunities. We will be using odds from our trusted friends over at Betonline.ag.

UFC 264 Betting Recap

Omari Akhmedov: +145

We got the night started off on the wrong foot when Omari Akhmedov fell short against Brad Tavares. It was a split decision, and we had him at nearly 1.5 to 1 betting odds, so I’m not entirely mad, but I did feel better about the bet and certainly sold it harder to you guys than I should have, so I apologize.

So, for those of you that know me well, you know whenever I am sooooo certain, you should probably pass. I wasn’t certain here. I did say that the line was off, and it should have been 60/40 in Omari’s favor instead of the 60/40ish we had for Brad.


Omari got him down a couple of times, but Tavares never stops making his opponents work, and offensively, it was a worse matchup for Akhmedov than I first thought.

I really didn’t like starting the night off with an L but it got better.

Jennifer Maia

We were on Maia when these odds were released a while back, and we got the dub, but it wasn’t pretty.

This fight played out much closer than I wanted it to or was expecting, but the massive gash on her forehead and blood covered face of Jessica Eye didn’t make for the best optics when the judges made their decision on a winner.

For just a (-180) payout, it was too much of a sweat, but thankfully, we slipped by with a win.

Ilia Topuria

Ilia Topuria is the truth, and I was happy we waited on this one until almost fight time because absolutely dumb money came in on Ryan Hall during fight week and got the betting line down to (-210).

I thought this was an absolute steal and recommended a large 4 unit play on the future title contender from the Republic of Georgia.

Hopefully:
You stopped there with that bet and didn’t get greedy as I did and go for the decision prop, but at (+280), I still think it was a solid play. Hall had next to zero chance in this fight and flopped to his back about 20 times during the first round.

This was playing out perfectly, keeping the action low, but Ilia still clearly winning, but Hall went for his third spin kick of the round, not smart bro, and Ilia closed the distance and took him down as he spun.

After getting his head bouncing with a couple of hammer fists, Ilia then started throwing super heavy and, before we knew it with just a few seconds remaining in the round, knocked Hall unconscious.

It was still a profitable play because we invested so heavily into the moneyline, and that was by design. What a savage that guy is, and poor Ryan Hall wasn’t ready. The spin kicks were really stupid against such a better striker with all that power.

Kris Moutinho vs Sean O’Malley

This one felt good.

Everyone was on O’Malley to knock Kris out mas o menos before the opening bell but once I saw the kid’s ears, learned of his Mexican heritage, and saw how he was not scared in the slightest of O’Malley at the weigh ins, I had to take the over 1.5 rounds for a (+150) payout.

The end of the first round was a bit hairy but other than that, it was a good play. The fight was finally stopped late in the third round but he had the clown haired O’Malley backpedaling the entire time.

Gilbert Burns and Stephen Wonderboy Thompson

Am I mad at myself for hedging here?

No. We can’t do that. We hedge because it is the smart thing to do at the time and we are choosing against our greedy side which is almost always a great idea in the betting game.

When the fight was first announced back in April, Burns opened as a (+135) underdog and I wrote a specific blog telling you guys to jump on the odds.

I wasn’t correct about the line movement that was about to come but we were correct about the result of the fight. It was close, though, and Wonderboy was one takedown defended away from getting the W.

Where Wonderboy went wrong in this fight is that he never really gave Gil anything to worry about.

He didn’t get his respect and yes, Stephen was winning the stand up by landing more, it was at such a low volume and intensity, Burns only needed to focus on the footwork to time up his takedowns.

I am sure Wonderboy realizes this now but man did he look a lot worse than he has in his last few fights. I was hoping he would be able to get the win because he decision line paid out higher but we still profited .35 units on 2 units wagered in total.

Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier

First of all, I had been tipping Dustin by live bet after the first round thinking it was likely Conor would win the first five minutes and give us Poirier at dog odds. The fight played out like it did, though, and we missed an opportunity.

But at the same time, who saw this coming?

I tried to give you guys a flyer on McGregor by decision hoping this rematch would play out like the Nate Diaz rematch. He was (+800) to win a decision and after I tipped it, the line moved down 25% to 6 to 1.

I don’t think that was because of me but the line does tend to move in the direction we say it will probably 90% of the time.

The main event was a profitable one for us though!

Before it even began as we took the prop bet for the men not to touch gloves. After the things Conor said about Dustin’s wife and threatened to kill him inside the Octagon, I felt like this was easy money.

And it was. (+200)….thank you!

Overall a solid night of betting for us!

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

Meisha Tate (-120) vs Marion Reneau (+100)

Bet this now.

I know Meisha hasn’t fought in a long time but Marion Reneau is like 45 years old for goodness sake. There is a reason they are feeding her to Meisha here.

Tate is incredibly affordable at (-120)! Official play, GO!

The Bet
Meisha Tate
-120
Place Bet Now!

Parlay Amanda Lemos + Phil Hawes: -147

This isn’t a huge payout but Amanda Lemos is the truth and Deron Winn matches up horribly with Phil Hawes who is probably going to knock him clean out if I’m being real with you.

Official play #2.

Parlay
Amanda Lemos + Phil Hawes
-147
Place Bet Now!

In Conclusion

It was a great show. I hate that UFC 264 ended the way it did but that’s life. Conor didn’t even make it back to the locker room before he remembered how rich he was and started smiling and laughing like his normal self.

I am just happy to have gotten that prop bet payout of 2 to 1. Talk about free money, some of the prop bets on these big cards are just that.

Who in the world thought there was a 70% chance they would touch gloves?

I don’t know but that person is feeling pretty stupid today. I know that.

I was proud of the O’Malley fight going over 1.5 for our (+150) payday. 10-1 odds on the favorite and we still profited 1.5 units. I can’t be mad at that.

Hedging with Wonderboy is a decision I am cool with as well because we were just one takedown defended away from cashing that ticket. I am not as proud of the Burns pick, though, even though I did it blind without seeing where the rest of the betting world was going.

Everyone and their great aunt Sally were on Wonderboy here so it does feel good to go with Burns.

We pointed out the fact that Wonderboy had never really faced a takedown artist in his entire UFC career and that showed.

It was a fun show and don’t be shy about jumping on those two bets I just told you about or just double up on Meisha. I think she wins that fight pretty easily!

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/monday-mma-mashup-ufc-july-12/

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