Alexandre Pantoja vs Brandon Royval Alonzo Menifield Best Sports Picks Cyril Gane Jared Cannonier vs Kelvin Gastelum Johnny Munoz Jose Aldo Karolina Kowalkeiwicz Manel Kape Mark Madsen vs Clay Guida Michael Chiesa Miles Johns monday mma mashup Rafael Fisiev UFC Betting

Monday MMA Mashup – UFC August 9

August 10, 2021
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UFC 265 was a fun one, no? I understand that the main event didn’t play out like a lot of you guys thought it would but I felt like we had a really high level event and I know the company got what they wanted.

All of the fighters they wanted to shine, fought well and delivered. There were some 50/50 matchups but they were what they were and even then, the fighters who prefer to finish like Vicente Luque and Song Yadong did their thing and got their respective victories.

If you watched our TheSportsGeek Youtube video seen below, you could see I was on Casey Kenney here and Song fought well. I heard a sharp guy tell me before the fight that Kenney is very hittable and against a sniper, that could be a problem.

He didn’t get put away and the fight went to a split decision but it looked like Song would have taken 6 out of 10 so we were on the wrong side there. It is hard to say with the Michael Chiesa vs Vicente Luque fight. Mike was winning until he wasn’t and the fight didn’t even last until the second round. Luque is something else, though.

He has nearly a 90% finish rate by now and climbing.

Could he be a problem for former teammate and current UFC Welterweight World Champion Kamaru Usman? That might be a stretch still but with that D’arce choke claiming another victim, Kam might be more inclined to a striking battle with Vince.

I have to be straight, though. I would still favor the champ by a decent margin in that potential matchup.

On the heels of such a successful event for the company, I wanted to note that we do significantly better on pay per view events and I am brainstorming to figure out as to why.

More on that soon. I think it is because we are getting a better idea of what the UFC wants to happen and the pay per view events are more transparent or their motives, I should say, are easier to identify.

We have to think like a sharp bettor, of course.

We have to think like a Wall Street trader at times. We have to think like a mixed martial artist, of course, and also a coach/cornerman. We need to think like the online bookmakers do.

This is the Art of War, guys.
Lately, though, we have been focusing in on what the company wants. We are getting into the head of matchmakers Sean Shelby and Mick Maynard. This has helped us out tremendously just in the short time we have been paying attention to this detail.

Yes, we are ROI is at about 19% for the past 22 months but we are above the 30% for the past 9 months. We have leveled up a few times over nearly two years of keeping data, and I promise you guys that we will continue to improve.

How high will the number get?

I don’t know. I did not set goals of 15 or 20% after we were stuck at 10 or 12 for so long. So, I am not sertting any more to get to 25 or 30%. That stuff is cool for some but I only see it as limiting.

If I was realistic from the start of this thing then I don’t think we would have come as far as we have. I would rather stay buried in the material and every now and again, count up the past month or so’s numbers, and see where we are at. If I get caught up in the ROI, I lose sight of the current week’s most valuable lines.

I have enough distractions and I don’t want any more. Some people operate much better like that but not me. Let’s review UFC 265 and look ahead to the next Las Vegas Fight Night event.

UFC 265 Betting Review

Johnny Munoz by Submisison (+210) 1 unit

My man Johnny Munoz did exactly what we thought he would do to get the night started off with a (210) win!

Jamey Simmons came into this matchup with little more than a puncher’s chance and at his base, he is an offensive wrestler and that, we knew, was not in the game plan for the vertically challenged American fighter.

Johnny Munoz Jr is a lifelong martial artist and with very good takedowns, he is going to be a dangerous fighter in the UFC’s Bantamweight Division. Johnny was ⅔ on his takedown attempts on Saturday at UFC 265 and I am surprised he needed that many to get the finish.

Clean win for Johnny and us as well for an extra pretty(+210) win for the good guys!

Miles Johns Moneyline (-200) 2 units

Miles was (-170) when we got behind him a month ago before the fight was rescheduled for UFC 265. The man is a force and I saw where someone on IG commented and said that guy is a like a fighter out of Tekken and I couldn’t agree more.

I have to be honest, though, guys, we were all over him at (-170) and where he opened for UFC 265 fight at (-200) but I didn’t think it would be such a clean victory.

He closed at (-240) so it felt great to be on the right side of such a large line movement. That was nice because Anderson dos Santos had me worried there for a little bit. Why? Well, he certainly isn’t 5’5” tall like the UFC website has him listed.

Johns is not tall at all but he was listed at 5’6” and dos Santos was a couple inches taller.

In the end, it didn’t help him very much as our guy was the better overall fighter and he showed it by limiting the movement of his opponent with the calf kick early in the fight.

That was a veteran move from a fighter with only 12 previous pro mixed martial arts bouts. I loved what I saw from Johns, especially the finish because he took a chance in the pocket and it paid off well with a liver shot to a perfectly placed overhand right.

This was another clean win for us and if you wagered 2 units to net 1 then that put you up over 3 units to start the night.

Manel Kape Moneyline (-200) 2 units

Manel Kape finally got his first UFC win and it was nice to get a win with him as well. We rode with him even after he failed us by more or less giving away the fight to Brazilian, Matheus Nicolau, by simply not throwing enough volume.

Kape debuted against a fighter who has two wins over the current champion and looked pretty good.

Especially considering it was his UFC debut. The company gave this guy so much hype and a really high level opponent for his debut so Manel came into his first fight with the UFC with a lot of pressure and expectations.

Ruin a bettor’s expectations like that and they will hate for a while, at least a couple of fights. I understand the Pantoja loss because that was his Octagon debut and maybe his jitters led to an early gassing and that is why he didn’t throw very much volume down the stretch.

It was in his second UFC fight, though, where a lot of us were backing him, me included, and he gave away the fight. For this, I am proud of myself for staying with him for the next matchup where he was a sizable favorite at (-200) but still affordable.

The books lost here and we won. They should have had the fight lined wider and Manel showed them and his opponent, Ode Osbourne, why with a flying knee attack all the way from Phuket, Thailand.

Manel is a Thailand trained fighter so I have to second my soapbox any time I get the chance.

Karolina Kowalkeiwicz Moneyline (-130) 1 unit

I don’t want to talk about it. I feel like I am sitting in the principal’s office right now. Karolina…wow. I have to admit that once I saw her face while she was standing inside of the Octagon whilst Bruce Buffer was announcing her name, I knew right away that I had failed you guys.

Betting on either lady here was such the opposite of a sharp move. I ambeyond disgusted with myself. It literally feels like I tried to steal something and I got caught. That is what happened, so…

Karolina matches up very well with Jessica Penne stylistically.

Penne is a submission artist with next to zero offensive wrestling capabilities. She needs her opponents to either take her down or in this case, simply follow her to the ground.

Jessica did land well when the two women exchanged punches early but ended up on her back with Karolina standing over her and landing some solid leg kicks to the outer thigh as Jessica laid in wait.

Penne said come on down here and Karolina, whose fight IQ hovers are the 15-20 mark apparently, took her opponent up on the offer to get submitted quickly. Was Karolina just in there jobbing?

Did the Polish mob get to her? Or maybe she has just been a broken fighter for a long time and I conveinently ignored that to try and steal a win here against a one dimensional 39 year old Strawweight fighter in Jessica Penne.

Horrible play and at favorite odds as well which makes it much worse. I’ll be in the latrine throwing up if you need me.

Parlay #1: Alonzo Menifield + Rafael Fisiev: -112

Okay, Zo was the first of these two respective fights and his opponent was a nearly 41 year old Ed Herman who was at a speed and possibly more importantly, reaction time disadvantage against the Texan.

The Lone Star crowd would, of course, be disappointed in the main event.

However, they got to see their boy light up but someone not put away one of the toughest guys ever to do it in Ed Herman.

Our second half of the parlay was Rafael Fisiev, another Tiger Muay Thai product but also coach which is scary just to think about how good you have to be to teach the ancient art of 8 limbs in Thailand.

What an honor and what a talent this guy is.

It was an impressive fight, though, for Rafy as well as his opponent, Bobby King Green. Bobby has some of the best punch defense in the game but it was the kicks of Fis that made the difference.

The fact that Green was running away for the first 8 or 9 minutes surely didn’t help his cause in front of judges from TEXAS…They don’t run down there and these guys were not impressed at all by Green’s slipping and moving.

One judge didn’t even give him the third round which most of us saw pretty clear for the UFC vet. The first two weren’t arguable, though, and Rafy definitely deserved the win. It didn’t play out as closely as a (-280) fight should have, though, but we got the win and it made not one but two parlays hit for us.

Parlay #2: Menifield + Fisiev + Johnny Munoz: +183

We already spoke about Munoz but I had to throw him on there because I felt great about his chances against a guy like Jamey Simmons who will likely get his walking papers before too long.

Game kid but small frame and not really a UFC level fighter. He could get another chance but I certainly don’t think the UFC is trying to do the guy any favors from here on out.

I believe they are done with him and he will continue to be used as fodder if they keep him around.

I thought this was a pretty clean (+183) if you ask me.

I know Bobby Green came on strong in the third round but we all knew he was going to have to put the Russian away to get the victory barring a bonehead decision from the judges.

And how many Russians are getting put away in the UFC? I’m just sayin’!

Michael Chiesa Moneyline (+100) 1 unit

This one is what it is. Mike got really careless in there, far more careless than he should have been fighitng one of the most opportunistic finishers in UFC history. Vicente Luque is a problem not just standing throwing strikes but he now has two D’arce choke submission wins in his last two fights.

And these guys he subbed are both grapplers at their base! Impressive stuff from Vicente. We were winning until we weren’t and that’s how it goes sometimes. We don’t know. Maybe Mike doesn’t make that mistake in 8 or 9 other hypothetical fights between the two men and Chiesa still wins 6 out of 10.

I can’t say that, though.

We will give Vicente 6 of 10 and take that one on the chin.

Jose Aldo Moneyline (-110) 2 units

This was a sharp play right here but to be completely honest with you guys, I thought it was an obvious pick. I spoke with a lot of my people who know fighitng but not necessarily from a betting perspective and they liked Munhoz here.

I just didn’t see it.

The guy is minus 5 inches of reach against one of the best jabs and straight right hands in the history of MMA. Yes, Aldo is aging but him and Pedro were born in their home country of Brazil just two days apart in the same year.

We were on the former champ here 100%. If Pedro were a surging young star who was 25 or even 30 years old, then yea, I could maybe understand chasing the dog here but the two men had even odds.

It was a no-brainer for me here.

Chito and Max Holloway were able to get to Jose Aldo when they put the pressure on because they had the length on him, the cardio, and the pressure.

Pedro had the cardio maybe but he himself was nearly half a foot deficient in the reach department at 135 pounds which is like having a foot of reach at 205 or at Heavyweight.

Therefore, he couldn’t even get the pressure game started because he was intercepted quite often by again, one of the best jabs of all time.

I will shut up because how can I brag about a pick that I said seemed obvious to me?

Cyril Gane Over 2.5 Rounds (-110)

Okay, we didn’t write about this but we covered it in our video so I suppose I should add in the Casey Kenney loss as well. We didn’t write about that but gave it away on Youtube and we lost.

The two plays at 1 unit a piece even out. We only won the round total bet by about 100 seconds so that play we could say was a bit lucky. The spot was (-200) on the over 1.5. Gane starting the way he did, establing that range by lenghtening his body so freaking well was amazing and most of us should have saw that coming.

I think the over 1.5 was the sharp move but we gambled with the over 2.5 to get close to even money and won. So, we got a little lucky here but that’s alright. I’m not too mad at it.

UFC Fight Night Las Vegas (August 21st) Betting Preview

A week off?! What? I didn’t approve this. You would think that taking a week off of fighting would help us all reset or possibly get some other things done around the house. Maybe go on a date or two. I don’t know.

Something…

Me? I will just be lost on a Saturday night sitting alone in my house with only my thoughts to entertain me. But for the work week, I plan on getting ahead of the other guys and girls that do this and making some predictions by this Saturday.

I don’t want to get too cocky and try to predict the entire card before everyone else but today, at least, we can touch on a few of the fights where I think we have some solid value on the betting lines.

The card is headlined by a couple of solid strikers at Middleweight, Jared Cannonier and Kelvin Gastelum. Jared, who used to fight at Heavyweight, carries a lot of power with him at 185 while Kelvin, a former Welterweight, is one of the fastest in the division right now.

Alexandre Pantoja vs Brandon Royval

We spoke about Alex earlier when we referred to Manel Kape’s competition level heading into UFC 265. Pantoja is one of the most talented stars at Flyweight and he has the most trouble with wrestlers who want to take him down and control him.

That is how you defeat a Muay Thai/BJJ guy. Minimize your risk by taking them down and not engaging much on the ground, focusing on control more than advancing postition or hunting for submissions.

That is the blueprint mas o menos. Well, the Brazilian’s opponent at the next UFC Fight Night in a couple of weeks from Sin City is another BJJ/Muay Thai guy who has an incredibly large frame for the Flyweight Division, Brandon Royval.

He might be a little bit too skinny, though, as we saw him get injured in his prevous bout kinda like we have seen twice now from Sean O’Malley a weight class up at 135. Cory Hill snapped his leg in a fight and he was 6’4” tall fighitng at the Lightweight limit of 155 pounds.

There is something to this and I am thankful I stayed away from the 142 pound division for most of my career because as tempting as it is, that is just too much and also I never feel like I have a strong base under me at 142, 145, or even 147. 150 was the sweet spot but that never happened unless it was a grappling tournament at 149. 155ers, if they were about 5’8-5’10”, were always monsters and easily overpowered me but that isn’t saying much.

Pantoja is the favorite in this fight and you can see why but Royval is such a wild card with his massive bone structure paired with awkward yet effective striking on the feet and a stellar submission game, is a live dog whether you like it or not.

For that reason:
I can’t get behind Pantoja at (-170). Miles Johns, yes, but Pantoja against a guy like Royval, no. You see the difference there? I know we have Harold Hindsight on our side for this one but betting against a live dog above (-150) is not a strategy that I approve of.

I hope this line moves even farther to the north and we can get Brandon Royval at some dashing dog odds of (+160) or more. Currently, he is sitting at around (+140) over at BetOnline.AG but I think the Pantoja money will come in harder seeing as Royval lost his last fight but Brandon is very young and there is a higher chance that he has leveled up from the loss because of that.

Mark Madsen vs Clay Guida

How old is Clay now? How many fights does this guy have? How many UFC fights?

A lot. He is a lot old and he has a lot of fights inside both the Octagon and outside of it. Clay Guida used to make me so mad when he would throw punches at the air but his hair was so dynamic, the judges thought his shots were landing.

Then, if he would take someone down, he would bark and yell, swing that hair, and land a forearm on the chest of his opponent but it looked like he was crushing them, well to the judges it appeared that way. Those non-observant fools are pretty easy to trick, though, as we know…

I don’t think he is taking former Olympic Greco Roman Wrestler down, though. Mark Madsen of Denmark is the real deal and I think we are getting some great value on him here against Clay.

Mad Dog does tire a bit in the third round but I think he steps off the stool forthe final 5 with a points lead in 8 out of 10 fights these two have. I think Clay overwhelms him in the third round one time out of 10 so that beings us down to 70% and with Mark’s betting odds at (-150) which has an implied probability of 60%, we have a nice edge on the books.

I promise you guys that win or lose, the line will move in the direction of the European Olympian even more. He will likely be more than a 2 to 1 favorite by fight time and much of our betting edge we have currently on the sportsbooks will be lost. Official Play!

The Bets
Madsen Moneyline
-150
Place Bet Now!

Jared Cannonier vs Kelvin Gastelum

Wow, I was really surprised when I saw these betting odds. I really expected Kelvin Gastelum to be the betting favorite but quite the contrary, it is the Army Veteran, Jared Cannonier, coming in hot as the (-168) fav.

That is a wide margin with Gastelum surely a live dog at (+145)!

How can he not be?

Kelvin gave Middleweight kingpin Izzy Adesanya his toughest fight to date at 185 pounds. That was a close one!

Adesanya closed the show well in the final round to secure the win on the judges’ scorecards but not after he had the fight of his life against the former last man chosen on The Ultimate Fighter reality show.

Jared Cannonier is a solid striker with good power for the division but the line is off to me. Cannon is good but I expected Kelvin to be the slight favorite. Looking at where this one opened up and I am shocked!

(-240) for Cannonier and (+195) for Kelvin Gastelum is madness!

That is 70/30 essentially in the implied probability realm which again, makes me really question it. I am not the only one, though, questioning this line because it has obviously moved quite a bit to where it is now.

Please Note:
We are still a ways away from the fight so I would hang tight for a bit but if there is any more movement towards Kelvin possibly getting near even money, I might make a small play on Gas to get it done.

He has solid value where he is now at nearly a (+150) underdog so throw half of a unit on him now and the closer we get to the fight, we will have a stronger idea and possibly make a more significant wager.

In Conclusion

UFC 265 was an excellent show! Everyone the UFC wanted to win, won, and we once again, crushed another pay per view event!

  • +210
  • -200 2 units
  • -200 2 units
  • -112
  • +183
  • -110
  • -102
  • +125

  • -130
  • -110
  • +100

This was for both the Youtube video and the articles with the parlay party included. We won both of our parlays thanks to a strong second round from Rafael Fisiev which was really the only close fight of the night that we won.

Karolina and Mike Chiesa were both winning in the first round before they lost, and Casey Kenney lost a split decision to Yadong Song.

Our 3 losses could have gone the other way but all of our wins were clean!

It was a great night for us. I, of course, am still pretty nauseous about the Karolina pick but we should have a rule against betting against flakes or low-level MMA fights we aren’t confident about.

11-3 overall with a return on your investment of 82%!

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/monday-mma-mashup-ufc-august-9/

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