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Monday MMA Mashup – UFC August 2

August 3, 2021
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Monday MMA Mashup – UFC August 2
I told y’all Sean Strickland was a bad man!

We struggled on the undercard again somewhat but nailed the main event. Sean, in my opinion, could have put Uriah Hall away more than once in that fight but he chose to carry him/hang on to some of his own gas in order to go the full 5 rounds.

Sean needed that 5 rounds for some more confidence, I guess, and it isn’t likely he will get the chance to do so again before he potentially challenges for the world title. I was thoroughly impressed once again by this guy but at the same time, not surprised.

The UFC has been pushing the false narrative that Uriah Hall was a changed man and he wasn’t going to fold under pressure like he has done time and time again in his career. A couple weeks ago, we chose recency bias over a larger sample size/history and paid for it.

I wasn’t going to do that again and I understand as well as anyone that these mental blocks just don’t disappear overnight or even over a couple of years. This is especially true in the fight game.

Sean is also a lot younger than Uriah and I already made a million points for Strickland.

I’m glad he got his spot to shine and the rest of the MMA world is getting to know this interesting transparent character who is a pure psycho and pure fighter to his bones.

As for this coming Saturday, we have an absolutely gigantic main event in every sense of the word with Cyril Gane and Derrick Lewis fighting for the Interim UFC World Heavyweight Title.

I can’t wait for this one but the betting lines, where they are right now, are making it difficult for us to find value.

I like Cyril in this fight but I don’t know about liking him enough to bet on him at 3 to 1 or should I say bet against Derrick Lewis at a betting line that juiced up.

The latter is a scary proposition and anyone who saw his fight with Curtis Blaydes, you understand why. Derrick only needs one but Blaydes was a specialist and I think the Parisian, Gane, is the best all around mixed martial artist the UFC Heavyweight Division has ever seen.

Also on the card this coming Saturday at UFC 265 will be a stylistic clash between two of the Welterweight Division’s best in Brazil’s Vicente Luque and Spokane, Washington native, Michael Chiesa.

Let’s get to our review and preview with betting odds provided by BetOnline.AG and possibly identify some leans or maybe even early week picks for UFC 265!

UFC Fight Night Las Vegas Betting Review

Cosce vs Rowe

I have to be real. I thought Cosce was a solid pick for this fight at (-150) but Phil Rowe displayed a lot of growth in that fight and got the win over the less experienced Orion Cosce. Luckily, we decided against taking a shot on Cosce’s moneyline and took out a flyer on him to win by decision.

Our biggest play for the fight, though, was on the over 1.5 rounds at (-170) which hit even though The Fresh Prince put out the NorCal native late in the second round by TKO. Watch out for Phil Rowe in the future.

I can see him building on this and possibly becoming another Neil Magny if he works more on his takedown ability.

Parlay

Rafa Garcia and Bryan Barbarena

It isn’t often we lose both legs of our parlay but this was one of those times, unfortunately. Jason Witt came through with the wrestling and Bryan needs to fight more often than he has been to keep that rust off.

Rafa Garcia ran into a grizzled vet and Chris Gruetz looked better than he has in a long time.

That was a bummer but it isn’t like we would have hit our parlay anyway.

Sean Strickland

I feel like I have spoken enough about this guy in the past few weeks. He was a horrid stylistic matchup for Uriah Hall and I hope you guys learned not to listen too closely to what the UFC guys and commentators have to say leading up to the fight.

They were using Uriah Hall’s big name to promote Sean. They knew Uriah wouldn’t handle the pressure well and not surprisingly, he didn’t. This is fighting and these athletes don’t change physically overnight much less mentally which is much more difficult.

Strickland is a mad man and I love him. As far as him not getting the finish, I stand by the fact that he carried Uriah in there. John Wood was telling him to go ahead and get him out of there but Strickland wanted to go 5 rounds at a high pace and prove to himself that he can do it.

UFC 265 Preview

Johnny Munoz

I really like this kid. He is legit and will definitely win some fights inside the Octagon in his career. He debuted against a really tough opponent in Nate Maness who has an incredible frame for the UFC’s Featherweight Division.

Johnny opened up at (-150) against Jamey Simmons this weekend and I thought, wow, what a great line. It’s too bad we saw it after the fact. The question now is: Does Johnny have value where he is now at (-210)?

I think so. Jamey Simmons is not really a UFC level fighter to me and Munoz will have the grappling and more specifically the wrestling advantage in this matchup and that should carry him to victory.

I think Johnny will make a nice parlay piece and if you want to bet him at (-210), I am not mad at that either.

Manel Kape

The UFC really wants to get this guy a win but man, his volume is too low. The guy can really strike well but clams up. Ode Osbourne is a strike first guy as well and coming down from the 135 pound class.

He wasn’t undersized there either but Bantamweight is just so stacked right now so I don’t blame anyone for bouncing. Here is the issue with Ode, though. His cardio sucks and I don’t think dropping a weight class is going to help that. Especially, not against a guy like Kape.

Kape will have energy in the 4th round because he is low volume so as long as he can make it 1-1 going into the final stanza, I like his chances in the 3rd to secure the victory. It is still a volatile matchup, though, so don’t put Kape in a parlay.

Drako Rodriguez

Okay, Drako dropped the ball in his last fight and people are hating on him for that but he just got caught. Vince Morales is not the best guy either but Drako should probably be a (-150) here so we are getting solid value on him at (-115).

This isn’t a great pick, though, so just throw a unit on the guy.

Casey Kenney

This is a good fight against Song Yadong but Kenney is the more well rounded mixed martial artist.

Taking down the Chinese star is not going to be easy, though, but if they do remain standing in a striking battle, I like Casey’s volume better than the counter punching waiting style of Song.

For (-115), though, it’s a solid play.

He opened up at (+105) so unfortunately, that line is gone but not far and we have the favorable movement on our side as well. Casey is a solid pick here at nearly even money. If he was a sizable favorite, I would stay away.

In Conclusion

Sean Strickland is the man! You gotta love that guy and it was nice to take advantage of the line holding steady at 2 to 1. People were buying the false narrative that Uriah Hall was a changed man.

People don’t change, especially those in their late 30s, especially those who are UFC fighters.

I love Uriah Hall but he shuts down under pressure and always has so why would we expect him to do any different?

As for this week’s action at UFC 265, there is some solid betting value but I don’t want to get ahead of myself and make a bunch of predictions without going through the fight tape first.

The main event…maybe take a shot on Derrick Lewis by knockout because I think that is about the only way he is going to get the dub. (+455) is crazy. The books know what’s up. They have him at 14 to 1 to win a decision and he doesn’t really submit anybody so what else is there?

His TKO odds should be just north of his moneyline but they are giving you a crazy number so that you play it and then look stupid when he doesn’t knock him out.

I see what they are doing but heck, it is pretty hot and tempting.

Enjoy the fights this Saturday and we will be back with more betting predictions for the fight card as the week progresses.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

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