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Monday MMA Mashup – April 26

April 27, 2021
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If you missed UFC 261 this past weekend, I’m sorry. I’m sure you’ve heard and seen, though, that it turned out to be one the best UFC fight cards of all time.

I’m not just saying that because the combatants were fighting in front of a crowd for the first time in over a year or because we nailed a lot of our predictions. It was a great show full of surprises. Some were a whole lot easier on the eyes to watch than the others but that is MMA, you’re liable to see something you’ve never seen before nearly every week.

From the bottom of the UFC 261 fight card to the three title world title fights, UFC 261 delivered in the biggest way possible, and the company along with the sport of mixed martial arts made yet another giant leap in popularity.

From a betting perspective, it was a very good night for us. It didn’t start that way but we finished as strong as possible. I regret not playing Rose Namajunas at (+160). That fight, I was back and forth on but by the end of fight week and seeing Rose on the pads and how locked in she was, I was giving her a slight lean.

If you have (+160) betting odds, then a little lean is all you need to pull the trigger.

Kamaru Usman showed us that he will be in the GOAT conversation very soon with a couple more wins like the one he got at UFC 261. I don’t think I have ever seen sweat fly off a man’s head like that before.

“I’m a problem”. Kamaru is kind of cringe to me as far as listening to him speak but at the same time, you see an athletic genius but even more so, a man driven for perfection.

It’s what we all dream about. Waking up every day and chasing perfection. While many of us rely too heavily on motivation to take the every day steps to reach our goals, Kamaru is more like a machine that almost runs on autopilot.

Maybe, I’m insulting him because he has the same demons as me or the rest of us but props to Kamaru for continuing to evolve as a mixed martial artist even when he didn’t have to. Even after he was already the world champion.

Dana White talked about this at the post fight press conference. He said Kamaru wasn’t his favorite fighter a few years ago because his style was more so to control his opponents than to damage them with violence or attempt to submit them with his grappling.

Wow, those days are not over. Kamaru can pull out the wrestling card whenever he needs it but now that his future opponents know that he can knock their head clean off, defending the takedown just got a lot more difficult.

More on Kamaru Usman in a moment. The entire card was incredible. Valentina Shevchenko as Dana White said appeared to be pissed off that people were doubting her because she lost a round in her last fight.

I have to admit that the thought did cross my mind that at least Jessica Andrade was going to bring a different set of challenges that the champ hasn’t seen at this level. But she is on her own level of course.

Bullet never gave her opponent the opportunity to do what she does best, and that is offense.

Andrade is all offense. She lands 6 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 5. Valentina did surprise us with her takedowns and once the beatdown position was reached, Jessica had but a prayer.

There was, of course, the Chris Weidman leg break. I have quite a bit to say about this one.

This coming Saturday, the UFC is not letting any momentum slip after such a successful UFC 261 as they are flying back to Vegas and putting on another Fight Night event inside of the small Octagon and not in front of a live crowd.

Light heavyweights Jiri Prochazka and Dominick Reyes will headline what is really a sleeper of a fight card. Former Muay Thai world champion Loma Lookboonme will be fighting along with the resurgent psycho Sean Strickland, and featherweight striker Gabriel Benitez.

There are more great matchups that still have me stumped so we will get to them as the week progresses.

I do have a few fighters who are in the (-200s) that will make perfect parlay pieces.

Let’s review our betting performance from UFC 261 and then do a quick betting preview so you can get ahead of some of the betting lines this week before they balloon up.

UFC 261 Betting Review Winners

Ariane Carnelossi

Ariane got the dominant win very early over her foe, Na Liang, but I chose to stay away due to this being a lower level women’s MMA fight where there is simply much more parody than at the higher levels.

Also, Ariane was coming off of a long layoff and Na Liang was just making her UFC debut. That was just too many variables for me but seeing her win in dominant fashion stung a little. We have to get over those mosquito bites quickly, though, because if we don’t, then the next time around, we will likely lose trying to chase a play for no reason.

Just like buses, there will be another valuable betting line that comes along in just a moment.

Jeffrey Molina

Wow, this kind put on a show. He and his opponent, Qilling Aori, won Fight of the Night for their back and forth war. Molina pulled it out but I feel like we passed on the right fight here.

Aori was so much bigger. His head alone doubled the dome of Molina but that didn’t slow down the kid from staying in the bigger man’s face and fighting with a ferocious heart.

It was a pleasure to see and the excitement was only beginning for the fans.

Zhu Rong

So, the kid choked. I was banking on that, actually. Zhu Rong was out first play of the night and since the 21 year old kid making his 21st appearance in a professional mixed martial arts bout was kind of a wild card, I thought taking a stab at the (+300) line for him to win a decision wasn’t a bad play.

I still don’t think it was. The best bet here was the over 2.5 rounds for (+120). I know Vargas had a higher payout on the moneyline but he got hit with some really powerful clean shots. If Zhu would have just thrown with more volume and used his kicks to keep the range, the fight was his.

In the end, we were just about 100 seconds of Rong getting some control time away from a 3 to 1 payout. Losing sucks. That will never change but I’m not mad at the pick. The kid is a sniper and he only wanted to counter punch.

The 35 year old Vargas figured that out very early in the fight and threw with combinations and forward pressure. It is much easier to counter a stationary target that only throws one strike at a time and the veteran made sure not to play that game against the sniper.

Danaa Batgeral

We got back on the winning track with a method of victory play here on Mongolia’s Danaa Batgeral. Kevin Natividad is a gamer. He loves to press the action and get into firefights.

That’s who he is but his chin doesn’t match his heart at this point. That is a recipe for getting knocked out. This is especially true against a fighter like Danaa Batgeral who continues to impress as he has easily out struck all three of the opponents he has faced inside of the Octagon thus far in his UFC career.

We went with the (+210) for Danaa to simply get the stoppage win inside the distance. His betting odds to get the TKO were virtually the same so there was no reason to risk him taking a last minute submission.

First round TKO for Batgeral.

Pat Sabatini

This was a fight I almost pulled the trigger on but the value you were getting on the favorite had diminished over 200%. Pat opened at more than a 2 to 1 underdog and closed as more than a 2 to 1 favorite.

This is, of course, a line move to pay attention to but you kind of missed the bus. It had already moved and it’s tough even for the most opinionated of all of us to confidently say the sportsbooks were off THAT much.

These folks know what they are talking about. It isn’t easy trying to beat them.

In the end, Sabatini used his dominant wrestling and excellent top control to ride out a win here against the tough as nails Canadian, Tristan Connelly.

Dwight Grant

This was another fight that I feel great about passing on. Dwight Grant was a 2 to 1 favorite in some online sportsbooks going into Saturday night and I just didn’t see it.

His opponent, Stefan Sekulic, was just 0-1 in his brief UFC career with a loss against Ramazan Emeev, one of the most dominant grapplers in the division. So, we didn’t know how he would do against a striker and Grant has been quite inconsistent himself.

Sekulic came on strong in the second half of the fight and especially right before the bell of the third round giving what was kind of a boring fight an exciting ending.

The only play here was on the underdog and even though he was close, the cigar was just out of reach. Not even a carrot for Stef on Saturday.

Brendan Allen

This is about the only fight on the card in which I regret passing. Brendan looked like a much improved fighter on the feet and he was still wise enough to use his grappling to get the win over the kickboxing heavy attack of Karl Roberson.

Brendan Allen was just (-130) at BetOnline.AG before fight time and that was a steal. I was seeing him up at (-170) and (-180) and thought, nahhh. That’s okay, though. It is always better to pass than to lose and we didn’t lose anything here other than an opportunity.

Randy Brown

Here was another (-130) from BetOnline.AG that hit with an early finish. Cowboy Oliveira has been around a long time and has always been notoriously inconsistent. That is why when I see his name, I tend to look the other way.

Maybe I miss out on an opportunity here and there but we also aren’t losing any money on the guy. It isn’t just the results of his fights that are up and down. The fights themselves are so helter skelter.

He’s winning. He’s losing. What is he doing?! He won! Oh, no. Now he’s gassed. Aaaand he lost.

That is not good for our wallets, our fingernails, or our respective complexions.

Big win for Randy Brown and Cowboy Oliveira appears to be on his way out. Cheers to an unsung hero of the UFC, Charles Cowboy Oliveira.

Jimmy Crute

I won’t talk too long here. I thought Crute matched up well with Anthony Smith and would use his wrestling to get the victory. We took out a flyer on the Aussie star to get the submission for a sexy 7 to 1 payout.

Jimmy landed some big kicks early while Anthony Smith’s jab never looked more effective than on the t-rex armed Crute. Anthony only needed one leg kick, though, and it wasn’t even on the calf.

The peroneal nerve was hit, though, fairly high up on the thigh and Jimmy’s leg was done. Or was it?

He still got a couple of takedowns with his bad leg before the end of the round. As he “walked” back to his corner, though, he had zero control over his ankle. It was rolling badly just trying to take one step.

That is when the doctor stopped it between rounds. I didn’t like that because Crute could have got another takedown. He did it twice with the same bad leg and the nerve could start to fire again at any time.

I didn’t like the stoppage but I wasn’t that mad either. Anthony still had a 90% chance at victory if not more at that point.

We didn’t know it yet but we were only getting started with the lower leg flopping.

Uriah Hall

Just in case, you haven’t seen it…

I had to find the one with sound for you guys. I really don’t want to kick a man while he is down but if you remember when Anderson Silva broke his leg on Chris shin, Weidman ran around the Octagon celebrating.

Hey, I get it. You checked the kick. You broke your opponent’s leg and you certainly won the fight. That is the name of the game. Watch the fighters in Thailand when this happens. Never a celebration.

Then it happens to Chris. I’m not saying it’s karma but the world works in mysterious ways and this one was weird. Poor guy, though.

We had Chris to get the win and the prediction was a wash. He could have looked great or terrible. We never got the opportunity to see. The kick he threw was very technical and strong but he didn’t set it up and Uriah, the better kickboxer, was poised for the check.

Chris Weidman just posted this on his Instagram a few hours ago. It is nice to hear him in decent spirits considering this devastating time.

What a warrior! Prayers up for Chris Weidman.

Valentina Shevchenko

I did give some thought to taking a chance on Jessica Andrade here as the sizable underdog but thankfully we decided on the round total and a method of victory for the champion instead.

The under 4.5 rounds was slightly favored at (-120) and I felt that Jessica’s aggression along with power, precision, timing, and accuracy of Valentina’s strikes would equal a TKO win. Well, we didn’t get exactly what we expected.

Valentina didn’t even bother trying to strike with Jessica. She saw a fighter who is almost always on top when training and in her fights. Therefore, her weakest position, we all have them, would be on her back.

Her guard likely isn’t as good as a skinny fighter who gets taken down a lot. She is a top control fighter and her BJJ game was cut to shreds by the champ. Shev finished her off from the beatdown position in the second round.

It was a double victory for us taking the under 4.5 rounds for (-120) as well as the method of victory on Valentina inside of the distance for a (+135) payout. Those aren’t the highest paying odds but they hit and I’m happy.

Please Note:
One thing I want all of you guys to do is to check out our brand new Youtube page and send it to a couple of friends. This past week was the first that I was able to contribute to. Apparently, I will be on camera this week so don’t miss this ugly mug telling you how to lose your money.

Here is our video from last week. Jackie Rae has a golden voice and quite a bit of sports betting knowledge as well.

Make sure to like, subscribe, and share!

Rose Namajunas

Thug Rose!

Check out everyone’s favorite Thug, Rose Namajunas as Bruce Buffer was making the introductions.

Chills! Last night gave me so many chills. What an event and the Jacksonville crowd felt like Brazil or Ireland.

In hindsight, Rose would have been a good bet, of course, but I honestly never had a very good read going into this one.

Kamaru Usman

What can we say about this guy? Future Hall of Famer? Certainly. Future Greatest Fight of All Time? Possibly. I rank him higher than Khabib Nurmagomedov right now.

Colby Covington is next, though, and maybe the fight plays out differently. Maybe one or both of them decide to use their wrestling. The fight was tied going into the 5th round. Kamaru showed the heart and determination of a champion but it was still close.

The rematch will be an anticipated one. His fight at UFC 261, though, opposite Jorge Masvidal was as one sided as their first meeting. Kamaru wasn’t lying, though. He said he was out to break Masvidal.

While Jorge never broke mentally, his lights were shut out and I’ve never seen so much sweat fly off a man’s head in my life. He does have a lot of hair and it made for quite the camera shot.

Kamaru opened up with the jab to the body setting up either a level change and/or an overhand right. Then the overhand right came and landed flush in the first round. He got the respect of Gamebred and Jorge was looking for the shot over the top now.

Then, Usman throws more overhangs in the second round but these were wild and looping. They almost seemed…forced or purposefully bad. Now Jorge is not only thinking the overhand is coming, he is also thinking he is going to counter it.

Then comes, the modified left hook into a hand grab and pull but I don’t even think that was needed. From there, Kamaru Usman through the straightest right hand the sport of mixed martial arts has ever seen and I stand by that.

Herb Dean, of course, let Jorge take about 4 or 5 shots too many but that is what Herb does so it’s to be expected.

We cashed on a terrific (-355) payout on Kamaru Usman to win by TKO.

Overall, great night for us and even more so for the UFC and their ever-increasing fan base.

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

Sean Strickland (-250)

This man is a psycho and I have full confidence in him to beat just about anyone in front of him who isn’t a dominant wrestler.

Sean has hands and more than bad intentions.

He wants to hurt you. He wants to damage your soul, your psyche, and, of course, your face.

Giga Chikadze (-185)

Giga, another filthy striker like Strickland, is now 5-0 in his UFC career and will get a chance to defeat a legend when he fights Southern California’s Cub Swanson. I am a big fan of Cub and he has the tendency to surprise in these underdog spots.

I just don’t think he is going to get Giga down if a brute like Venezuela’s Omar Morales couldn’t. Cub is not a big guy.

I remember the first time I saw him was in the locker room of a Combate America in Los Angeles. I was warmig up my fighter and he was doing the same. I am a little bit slimmer than Giga and around the same build and height and I thought Cub was TINY.

He is one of the best mixed martial artists with the deepest tool bags the UFC and WEC Featherweight Divisions have ever seen but he has his miles and Giga is just a bad matchup for him.

Cub is giving up 4 inches in height and 4 inches in the reach department. That is too much to then out strike a GLORY level kickboxer.

Parlay Giga and Strickland: +116

They are going to have to get it done with striking but these two are some of the best in the UFC at exactly that.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

In Conclusion

UFC 261 couldn’t have gone any better, in my opinion. This entire card was a success.

Okay, sorry Chris Weidman.

What happened to you, brother, is every fighter’s nightmare. Nobody enjoyed this and I wish the man a speedy recovery.

Crazy, though, how it happened to him after he did it to Anderson who was just defeated by the man who did it to him, Uriah Hall.

Please Note:
Much respect to Uriah Hall for being a professional martial artist in every sense of the phrase after this happened. Did he run around? Did he celebrate his win? No. He didn’t even raise his hands or crack a smile. Uriah was devastated and I am sure this one will stay with him forever.

Outside of that moment, though, the night was essentially perfect for the fans, the UFC, and the fighters who were able to win.

This coming week has some very interesting fights and I will be hard at work all week capping them and then getting the predictions out to you guys. If you haven’t already, click on the link for our Youtube page. Like, share, and subscribe!

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