UFC Fight Night Las Vegas was this past weekend in Las Vegas. The main event featured a late replacement bout where Kevin Holland got in there with The Italian Dream Marvin Vettori and it wasn’t pretty.
The bigger better fighter, Vettori, showed the mixed martial arts world why he is a man to be feared and will be a threat to the world title. This guy is focused and fight ready every time we have seen him step in there.
Marvin has all the tools to succeed at the highest level and his dominating mauling style of takedowns and ground and pound is scarier than facing a knockout artist, in my opinion. If you’re fighting a KO guy then you at least know that he will give you the chance to strike with him.
If the guy has a Khabib’ish style of fighting, then you’re going to feel like you’re drowning. It is just a slower death. I’ve heard people say that drowning is worse than burning to death. I’m not sure if I buy that but I understand what they are saying because of the panic effect.
Kevin Holland has now been taken down 17 times in the past two fights. Granted, he has fought a couple of the best top control guys in the division in Marvin Vettori and Derek Brunson. This doesn’t mean that Kevin Holland is a bad fighter.
It just means that he has a glaring hole in his game and fighters will continue to exploit it until he fixes the problem. When will that be? Wow, I don’t know. The guy has a major amount of work to do but he is young, talented, and confident enough to beat anyone on a given day.
Well, if he isn’t taken down twice per round. That usually means you’re gonna lose.
Elsewhere on the fight card, Sodiq Yousuff fell victim to the Almighty Arnold Allen who had his opponent outsized in there and that was more or less the difference in what was a very well matched Featherweight fight in the UFC’s 145 pound division.
Mackenzie Dern looked better than ever against Nina Ansaroff Nunes. The latter was coming off of a successful pregnancy and child birth as well as years away from the Octagon and it showed. She didn’t look herself at all and Mackenzie was able to use her improved boxing to back her opponent up to the cage and then secure the takedown with plenty of time left in the round to get to work.
Eventually, with about 20 seconds left in the round, the BJJ world champion tapped Nina out with an armbar. There was so much respect shown between the two strong women. You love to see that.
Mackenzie seems like a real one regardless of how much hate she receives. I think a big part of the hate is fear from other fighters because she has the ability and skill set to defeat ANYONE in her division.
Two years in the making… #UFCVegas24: 🇦🇺 @RobWhittakerMMA vs 🇲🇽🇺🇸 @KelvinGastelum pic.twitter.com/6peukNZGk9
— UFC (@ufc) March 30, 2021
This next event coming up on Saturday will be headlined by a former world champion fighting a former world title contender from the UFC’s Middleweight Division. Kelvin Gastelum will be the betting underdog against Australia’s Robert Whittaker.
That is a fight you do not want to miss! I am leaning towards Bobby Knuckles here but Kelvin is likely to get the fight he wants, a striking match, so we could see a back and forth battle and a winnable fight for either athlete.
A former training partner of mine, Natan Levy, will get a chance to represent the country of Israel as well as Syndicate MMA out of Las Vegas when he fights the weathered Austin Hubbard who keeps getting tough matchup after tough matchup.
Young stars Tracy Cortez and Tony Gravely will also be fighting. Not each other, of course, but they will be tested.
Let’s finish up out betting review from last week as well as take a look ahead to this Saturday’s action from the desert in Las Vegas.
UFC Vegas 23 Betting Review
The first fight we picked was the first fight of the night. Sasha Palatnikov welcomed Impa Kasanganay to the UFC’s Welterweight Division with an even first round. I thought our more than 2-1 underdog was looking pretty good so far.
That’s all you can really ask for is a chance when you’re betting on a decent-sized puppy. Impa picked up the pressure in the second round and in one of the transitions as Sasha was defending the takedown, there was a slip and Impa snagged a quick choke for the win.
He didn’t even have the hooks into his opponent but when you’re that deep on the neck, you don’t have to. Congrats, props, and shout-out to Impa Kasanganay for being so opportunistic returning from the shadow realm with a victory but I am still not mad at the pick because the fight was dead even until a random slip and submission ended it.
We were on Luis Saldana to out strike Jordan Griffin and that’s exactly what he did. Should it have been enough for him to be crowned the victory by the judges’? Eh, I don’t know. That is a tough one because Jordan was certainly the aggressor as he usually is and scored a few takedowns as well.
Fans and commentators around the world were surprised to hear these results but guys, I’ve been telling you this for a couple of months now. Judges, especially Las Vegas judges, are scoring damage higher than control now.
For a long time, this wasn’t how it went. A fighter could outland their opponent 2 to 1 in significant strikes but if they were even taken down and controlled for just 1 minute or 20% of the round, they were more often than not chosen as the winner.
Judging has evolved and in my opinion, it is for the better. Damage should be scored higher than control. This is a fight and those looking for control points and treating it more as a competition than a scrap.
It’s still a fight but you see what I’m saying. Maybe we shouldn’t bet on favorites who need a controversial decision to get the win but we should all be 100% aware of how Vegas is scoring these fights. There has certainly been a shift and we should all take note.
On our parlay of the week, we had Joe Solecki and Liz Carmouche to both get the W for a plus money payout. That one hit without much worry even though Jim Miller did take the first round of two of the judges’ scorecards but that’s all the guy has left and it showed in rounds two and three with the younger fighter dominating on top.
Mike Perry came back and looked okay, I guess, against Daniel D Rod Rodriguez. Mike apparently actually trained for this fight with a full camp in Miami at MMA Masters but that simply wasn’t enough to get him to where he needed to be to even compete with D Rod.
Rodriguez had the reach as well as very straight shots that come down the pipe. Perry, conversely, wings overhangs, and dare I say that he paws some of those punches. I know he can crack and would knock me out but his technique is terrible.
I know you might have heard that term before about a fight or a fighter but it has never been more true with Perry.
He was outside leg kicking the southpaw which set himself up to be power kicked and drilled with D Rod’s laser beam left hand down the middle. I was very disappointed in Perry but at the same time, this was probably the best we have seen from D Rod since his first appearance inside of the Octagon.
A former training partner, well gym partner, Julian Marquez is too big for me, fought in his second fight back after a long layoff from a torn lat against the veteran Sam Alvey and looked excellent.
This was a far cry from the Julian Marquez we saw compete against Maki Pitolo a couple of months ago. That is fighting, though. Sometimes, guys show up and out, and sometimes they don’t even show up at all.
The Cuban Missile Crisis rocked Alvey with strikes on his way to a rear-naked choke finish when Smilin Sam just wouldn’t go to sleep from punches. Of course, the red-headed warrior took a nap and didn’t tap.
What more would you expect from that guy? He may not be the best overall fighter in the UFC by any stretch but he is as game as they come and that is more than the majority of the roster can say about themselves.
UFC Vegas 23 Betting Preview
Tony Gravely (-290) vs Anthony Birchak (+240)
Tony Gravely is a former member of the United States Air Force like myself so I have to pull for the guy. It doesn’t hurt, though, as a capper because he has some of the best wrestling in the UFC’s stacked Bantamweight Division.
His opponent here, Anthony Birchak, is a tough dude but undersized and lacks the wrestling defense to keep this fight on the feet where he needs it to have a chance to defeat the superior fighter, Gravely.
I’m not sure why Tony is getting a step down in competition in this fight. He looked great in his last bout dominating and getting the victory but the UFC has put him down as the first fight on the night against a journeyman.
Could it be the style of Gravely? Is that why he is getting shunned here by the company? That could very well be true. They make no secret that they don’t like guys going out there and playing to the judges.
Of course, it’s going to happen but if the company doesn’t like you, they can just cut you. I have seen guys win 3 out of 4 fights and get their walking papers. That’s just how it goes. They want exciting fighters who are doing just that, fighting.
If you’re simply competing as we mentioned earlier, then you are robbing the fans of a better fight. Sure, you could sit in the guard and throw body body head for 5 minutes like Georges St Pierre but then what?
Think about how much more exciting GSP’s fights would have been if he tried to get the finish each time! The guy went 5 years and over 75 minutes of fight time without a finish and he was fighting guys like Dan Hardy and Johnny Hendrix.
Either way, I love Gravely here as a parlay piece. Anthony Birchak is tough and will keep coming forward but I believe that will play directly into the game plan and style of Tony Gravely who invites your forward movement because he wants to get in on your hips and take you to the ground.
Chase Sherman (+115) vs Andrei Arlovski (-125)
Andrei hasn’t been cut yet?!
This comes as a surprise as I thought he was a goner with Jacare and Alistair Overeem but the man is going to do it at least one more time. Andrei is a very big guy still and he knows how to win fights.
He doesn’t mind at all holding his opponents up against the cage for the full 15 minutes should the referee let him. A fatter paycheck is more important to him than pleasing his fans or employers.
Chase can crack and those are the fighters who are going to beat Arlovski nowadays. The Tanner Boser volume strikers of the world who are kinda tall and lanky can be nullified and defeated but someone like that Sherman tank is likely going to put his lights out.
There will be KO props released later in the week but we already have the man at plus money so why get greedy.
Natan Levy (+105) vs Austin Hubbard (-125)
This is a very interesting matchup here between two highly unique striking-based fighters. Natan has very underrated wrestling, though, as well as a forever-good game plan from head coach John Wood at Syndicate MMA.
Natan is a Karate Black Belt to a very high degree and has some of the best kicks I’ve ever seen. Whenever I was sparring with him and we did quite a bit being the same size, he was letting his kicks go and thankfully pulling them when needed.
Thank you for that, brother. Nobody likes a heel to the dome!
It’s like his training just isn’t translating into the fight, at least as far as his hands and feet go. He trains his boxing with Jimmy Gifford, one of the most respected trainers in the LAs Vegas Valley.
Austin Hubbard has fought some of the best grapplers in the UFC already and shown a good account of himself in defeat. I think we will see more of the same here. The 6-0 Levy will be the more well-rounded offensive fighter with the takedown threat and that should be the difference in this one.
Kelvin Gastelum (+210) vs Robert Whittaker (-250)
Gas is going to get the fight he wants here against Bobby Knuckles. This one looks to be a striking battle for the ages. Robert was originally scheduled to fight Brazil’s Paulo Costa but the big guy couldn’t make it so in steps Kelvin Gastelum.
Kelvin is a killer on his feet and should possess a slight speed advantage over his foe on Saturday night but Robert Whittaker knows how to win and does so against everyone not named Israel Adesanya.
I don’t believe Rob will be able to work his wrestling here, though, and that means he will be striking with a striker. The (+250) on Kelvin Gastelum here is so freaking tempting but I will stay away for now.
Let’s revisit this fight when the method of victory props come out because right now, we are in a dog or pass situation with Rob as a 2.5 -1 favorite. I don’t want to throw the dog a bone so we will see where the betting lines move and sit on the method of victory.
In Conclusion
We didn’t have the best week for betting UFC but the fights we were right about were dead on.
It was nice to see Kevin Holland get smashed again. I can’t believe they were talking about this guy competing for a world title in the near future. He isn’t on that level. Getting taken down 17 times in the past 3 weeks is not a good look.
2020 was sensational for the young man but he isn’t fighting the Charlie Ontiveros’s of the world anymore. Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori are top ten guys with wrestling and top games good enough to threaten anyone in the division.
Arnold Allen set himself apart from Super Sodiq with a big win on Saturday. Look out for him to make some serious noise in the top five of the UFC’s Featherweight Division.
This week, I wanted to tip a couple of small dogs early on. Chase Sherman is likely to move to a betting favorite and Natan Levy fights so freaking smart. I love his IQ in there as well as his relentlessness in getting the takedown and even maintaining top control.
Get your bets in now and let’s wait on the method of victory props before we hit the main event between Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum.
https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/monday-mma-mashup-april-12-2021/
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