TPN/Getty Images. Pictured: Rafael Nadal.
It’s hard to believe, but the quarterfinals of the French Open are almost all set. The Round of 16 will conclude Monday, and there are plenty of popcorn-inspiring matches on the card.
I’ve picked out some matches I see particular value in, and without further ado I’ll get down to them now.
Jannik Sinner vs. Rafael Nadal
Start Time (approximately): 10 a.m. ET
The smart money in this tournament has been on Rafael Nadal to lose at Roland Garros for just the fourth time in his long career, and the first time since 2016. For a third consecutive year, his run to the French Open hasn’t been the most convincing, with a couple of tough losses on the dirt, but I’m still not entirely convinced that will stop him from capturing the title.
Regardless, as the years go on the likelihood of a Nadal loss increases and here is where it begins to get to get tricky for the Spaniard. If you’re selling a Nadal win — and you’d be wise to with the way he’s priced — you’ll want to begin with a bet on young Jannik Sinner.
The teenager is destined to be the world No. 1 one day and his run to the top 20 has been absolutely insane. He’s so cool and comfortable playing on the clay in big matches, proving a tough out for some of the best in the world.
Sinner’s never taken a set off Nadal in their two meetings, the first of which was at Roland Garros last year. In that match, he served for the first set before playing a tight second and fading hard in the third. In his loss to Nadal in Madrid this year, he got off to an early lead with a break in the first game, but wound up losing the first set 7-5 before losing the next by a 6-4 margin.
He’s proven to be up to the task of playing first strike tennis against the best clay-courter in the world, and I expect him to get in plenty of offense against this version of Nadal. He’s likely not going to win here, but it’s about time he takes a set or at the very least makes Rafa work just a little bit. Based on their two meetings, he should cover with relative ease here.
Pick: Sinner +8.5 (-107)
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Diego Schwartzman vs. Jan-Lennard Struff
Start Time (approx.): 6:15 a.m. ET
Speaking of guys having down years on the clay, Diego Schwartzman has looked pretty broken. Normally one of the kings of clay, the Argentine went just 7-6 this year on the dirt before picking up a few wins at Roland Garros. Now, he’s going to face his toughest challenge yet.
Jan-Lennard Struff is on some sort of run here in Paris, beating three high-quality clay court players in the opening rounds. A win over Andrey Rublev –one of the world’s best — was good enough. Then he beat Facundo Bagnis in the midst of a great season and tennis prodigy Carlos Alcaraz.
Struff’s massive serve and forehand have never been working in chorus better, with his forehand wing doing serious damage and landing exactly where he’d like it to on the court. He’s facing one of the best returners in the game, but Schwartzman has hardly looked the part this year and hasn’t really faced a quality opponent yet.
Struff has been nearly impossible to break, and if Schwartzman struggles to hold as he always does, things could tilt decidedly towards the German. This is one of my favorite spots of the tournament.
Picks: Struff ML (+175)
https://www.actionnetwork.com/tennis/monday-french-open-betting-odds-picks-how-to-bet-sinner-vs-nadal-more-june-7
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