MLS Odds, Picks, Predictions: Colorado vs. Seattle Betting Preview (July 4)

Colorado vs. Seattle Odds

Colorado aims to prove its early success has been no fluke when it hosts Seattle on Sunday in Major League Soccer action.

The Rapids have won five of their last seven games to climb to fourth place in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Sounders just keeps churning out results and are the league’s last remaining unbeaten club.

A home game against Vancouver put that streak in jeopardy, but Seattle ultimately found a second-half equalizer in a 2-2 draw last time out.

Let’s take a look at this showdown and see where they betting value sits.

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Offensive Consistency Driving Colorado This Season

The Rapids’ sneaky good form actually dates back to last season when they won five of their last seven games to earn a playoff berth before falling to Minnesota United in the first round.

However, the 2021 version of manager Robin Fraser’s side has only one victory over a team holding a playoff place, which came in a 3-2 triumph against Minnesota when it was struggling at the start of the season.

What does bode well for the Rapids against higher caliber foes is their offensive consistency. Colorado has scored in every game except its season opener at Dallas back in April. Diego Rubio has three goals, but the real story is that nine different players have already found the net this season.

That includes all but one forward or midfielder who has played more than 300 minutes. And the exception — Jack Price — leads the team with four assists.

Price is questionable for this affair with an unlisted injury. Danish midfielder Younes Namli — limited to four starts this season — remains sidelined.

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Seattle Still Rolling Along Despite Lack of Sharpness

By their own lofty standards, the Sounders have been less impressive since the middle of May following a sizzling start. They have drawn three of their last five matches — those draws came at home — while conceding five of the seven goals they have allowed all season.

Seattle has yet to keep a clean sheet since play resumed following the international break in early June. And horror of horrors, Seattle even let in a pair of goals that were neither penalties nor direct free kicks in their 2-2 draw against Vancouver.

Even so, the results haven’t really lagged. That’s partly because Raúl Ruidíaz continues to be the most productive striker in MLS not named Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez after scoring his ninth goal of the campaign.

And Josh Atencio — the Sounders’ most natural option in the playmaking role while Nicolas Lodeiro remains sidelined with a knee injury — has returned from his own injury stint into manager Brian Schmetzer’s starting lineup.

Betting Analysis & Pick

My initial instinct when this line came out was that it was likely to shift toward Seattle. That hunch was backed up by FiveThirtyEight’s MLS projections, which gives Colorado a 38% chance at victory and Seattle a 37% chance.

And if that shift occurred — say if Colorado had gotten above +150 odds — I would’ve played the host. The Rapids would be the strongest road opposition the Sounders have faced yet and history says the visitors will eventually lose sometime this season.

Instead, the line has creeped slightly in Colorado’s direction, which leaves me looking for a Plan B for a play.

One option is betting yes on both teams to score. The -162 odds and an implied probability of 61.8% are straightforward value, considering these teams’ offenses have found the net in 18 of their 20 combined games.

Yet, there’s also a strong case — and one with a larger payout — for betting the straight draw at +270 odds and a 27% implied probability.

According to StatsBomb, Colorado has generated 6.0 expected goals and allowed 4.9 xG in four games at home. Seattle has generated 6.0 xG and conceded 5.4 xG in four away matches.

In other words, there’s every reason to expect this will be a tight game and tight enough you’d expect it to finish even after 90 minutes more than 27% of the time.

Pick: Draw (+270)

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