MLB Odds & Picks for Rockies vs. Cardinals: Betting Value on the Total (Saturday, May 8)

Rockies vs. Cardinals Odds

The Cardinals have come back to Earth after a stellar run of wins and will look to continue to notch wins against one of the worst teams in baseball in the second game of their series with the Rockies on Saturday.

The Rockies have been exceptionally poor away from home, but with St. Louis sitting as such a steep favorite, there may be no value on the moneyline.

With that, should we turn to the total and fade two bad pitchers? Let’s take a look at the numbers and find out.

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Colorado Rockies

After taking two games of three from division-rival San Francisco, the Rockies left the hitter-friendly Coors Field, which this season has masked one of, if not the worst offense in baseball. They promptly lost 5-0 in the series opener on Friday.

Colorado has opened the season at 2-12 on the road behind an offense that has posted a 75 wRC+ in those games to rank well below average. It’s natural that we see a steep drop-off in production from this team on the road — we do every season — but last season, the Rockies managed to go 14-16 away from home, significantly better than their 12-18 home record.

So, that’s why the Rockies will rarely be worth backing on the road, even coming off a series win over the red-hot Giants. Another reason would be the fact that Chi Chi González will get the ball, which could spell disaster.

The righty has given up seven earned runs on 12 hits over 9 2/3 innings in his last two outings, and given the quality of contact he allowed, it could have been much worse.

The Diamondbacks had a whopping 10 hard-hit balls off González in his last outing, which was five days ago, and in his turn before that, he allowed seven hard-hit balls. With that, it should come as no surprise that he’s allowed hard contact at 45.1% and has an expected ERA that’s exactly two runs higher than his real-life 4.38 ERA.

Also alarming is a 13.3% walk rate for González; when he’s not getting shelled, he’s issuing free passes. There’s little to like about González, even against a league-average offense.

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St. Louis Cardinals

The Redbirds have cooled off ever so slightly. They won 10 of 12, then lost two straight before picking up the win in the opener on Friday.

Their offense sputtered in those two losses to the Mets, piling up just three runs in 16 innings against some middling pitching across one full game and one doubleheader. Perhaps the injury to a hot bat in Yadier Molina has finally caught the Cardinals, or perhaps the Mets’ bullpen and Taijuan Walker deserve more credit. Either way, this will be a prime spot for the offense to get back on track.

It will need to, considering who the Cardinals have on the hill. Carlos Martínez, who, like González, has been absolutely rocked this season, always puts this team in an advantageous spot.

His profile is actually very similar to his opponent’s with a poor 43.5% hard-hit rate compounded by a 13.5% walk rate. These numbers are actually slightly better than the ones he produced in 2020, which is scary in its own right, but it illustrates the steep decline the once-promising righty has seen.

It’s worth noting that this lineup has been up against it when facing right-handed pitching. The Cardinals rank 23rd with just an 86 wRC+ within the split and have had to lean on their almost exactly league-average arms to get them through these games.

Against Colorado, those hurlers should be in for a bit of an easier time.

Rockies-Cardinals Pick

Neither of these offenses can lay claim to much of anything so far this season, but even as bad as they’ve been, it’s still pretty hard to pass up a total we’d see in a pitcher’s duel because, well, we’re definitely not going to see one.

Both men are struggling mightily any way you slice it, allowing baserunners upon baserunners. If you can guarantee that — and I think with so many walks and hard-hit balls you can — you like your chances of both teams converting on some of those opportunities. The probabilities are in your favor.

With that, I’m going to break one of the Cardinal Rules of gambling, which is that if you see something too good to be true, it probably is. I simply can’t ignore how bad (and lucky) these two pitchers have been and the presence of talent in both lineups.

These two teams should get us across the finish line.

Pick: Over 8 (-117)

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