MLB Odds & Picks for Orioles vs. Mets: New York Has Clear Edge Against Old Friend Matt Harvey (Wednesday, May 12)

Orioles vs. Mets Odds

The New York Mets host the Baltimore Orioles Wednesday afternoon in an interleague game. Both teams have performed as they were expected to going into the season. The Mets have a 17-13 record and are in first place in the NL East. New York is in the middle of a six-game winning streak.

The Baltimore Orioles are a sharp contrast to the Mets. Baltimore was projected to finish in last place in the AL East and it currently right there in the cellar. The Orioles are 16-20 nearly one-quarter of the way into the season and are even worse on paper than they’ve performed thus far.

Baltimore has a -13 run differential which is the eighth-worst in the league. That’s thanks mostly to a weak lineup, as several of the Orioles’ pitchers are performing better than their expectations. One of those pitchers is Wednesday’s starter and old New York Mets hero Matt Harvey. Will the Orioles continue to catch lightning in a bottle with Harvey against the team for which he once starred?

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Baltimore Orioles

After emerging as one of the best starting pitchers in the majors in the middle part of the last decade, Harvey, you might recall, fell off a cliff. He spent the last two seasons in Los Angeles and Kansas City and put up a negative WAR on each occasion, overstaying his welcome in both stops.

After seven starts in 2021, Harvey has a 3-2 record with a 3.60 ERA. However, he also has a 4.60 xFIP. At best, Harvey appears to have peaked in value this season.

While Harvey is vulnerable against the Mets, the Orioles’ lineup is in an even worse spot. The O’s average only 3.86 runs per game, which is the fifth-lowest in the league. Only the Detroit Tigers have been worse among American League teams.

With outfielder Anthony Santander hurt, the only reliable offensive players in the Orioles’ lineup are Cedric Mullins and Trey Mancini. There just simply aren’t a lot of spots in the lineup that opposing pitchers have to worry about.

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New York Mets

Taijuan Walker has quietly been one of New York’s best starting pitchers this season. He has a 2-1 record with a 2.38 ERA, and a 3.95 xFIP, and has been averaging 5 2/3 innings per start. While Walker should regress based on his xFIP being more than a run higher than his ERA, he should do well against a weak Orioles lineup.

The other key to the Mets’ success has been their bullpen. New York’s bullpen has an xFIP of 3.59, which is the third-lowest in baseball. With pitchers like Walker keeping the bullpen out of the game until late, part of the reason why the bullpen has done well has been that it has not been overworked.

As good as the Mets’ pitching has been, they’ve needed every bit of it considering the start their offense has gotten off to. New York averages 3.48 runs per game, the third-lowest in the league.

The lineup has several underperforming hitters who you can expect to break out and start hitting up to their expectations before long, including Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso and the newly acquired Francisco Lindor.

The Mets were projected to average 4.26 runs per game this season, and their figure should tick up closer to that total eventually.

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Orioles-Mets Pick

The Mets are the obvious pick against the Orioles. They have a better lineup and more reliable pitching. However, the market agrees, and we need to wait on a number that’s more appealing to bet it. At -185, there’s little value on the Mets even if they’re projected to win. Grab the game at -170 if it dips or you can shop around for it, otherwise stay away.

Pick: New York Mets Moneyline if -170 or better.

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