Mets vs. Dodgers: Throwing Smoke

With Carlos Carrasco still finding his form, the Over is our MLB pick for Friday’s tilt between the New York Mets and L.A. Dodgers.

New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Friday 20, August, 2021 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium

Okay, this time we’re pretty confident that Walker Buehler will start for the Los Angeles Dodgers. It was widely assumed that Buehler would take the mound Thursday night versus the New York Mets, but it’s Corey Knebel getting the spot start instead. Buehler will pitch Friday’s game for Los Angeles, and the Dodgers are –250 home faves on the MLB odds board at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) as we go to press. That’s up from –240 at the open.

Not coincidentally, the Dodgers were also –240 for Thursday’s game when the overseas lines opened and it was believed Buehler would start. That seemed like a pretty tight line versus Taijuan Walker; does it hold up now that it’ll be Carlos Carrasco throwing opposite Buehler? Pretty much. FiveThirtyEight rate Carrasco (3.59 FIP in 2020) six Elo points higher than Walker, which isn’t much at all, and their 69-percent projection for L.A. works out to –223 vig-free using the mother of all gambling calculators, the SBR Odds Converter. Nice.

Europe vs. Nevada, Two Out Of Three Falls

As I write this, BetOnline have the best price on the Mets at +224, so if you believe in the power of Nate Silver, putting New York in your MLB picks is neither profitable nor unprofitable – in and of itself, that is. We’ve touched a few times this year on how it’s good to fire as many single bets as possible (moneylines, run lines and totals) when you’re dealing with online sportsbooks that use the newer “European” approach, where they’ll limit your action if you appear too sharp.

One of the sharper things you can do as a bettor is load up on MLB props. These bets have higher potential profit margins than single bets, so if you’re looking at Friday’s matchup and you like some of the props on the board, bet bigger on those, and throw a small bet at New York as a smoke-screen – especially if the props you like are Mets-related. Even better, sign up for accounts at multiple top-rated sportsbooks, and make sure some of them still lean toward the old “Nevada” model of doing business, where they take in both sharp and recreational money and make at least some effort to balance the action.

If you’d rather stick with single bets – and you want them to be profitable – the total might be your huckleberry this Friday. As well as Buehler (3.13 FIP) has pitched this year, he’s still got the Over at 12-10-2, thanks to the formidable L.A. hitters (second overall in hitting at plus-23.6 WAR, according to Fangraphs) and their so-so bullpen. And Carrasco has the Over at 3-0-1 in his four starts since finally making his Mets debut, after he tore his hamstring in training camp. Make it another small wager, though, on what should be a relatively cool and humid night at Chavez Ravine, and may the sphere be with you.

MLB Pick: Over 8 (–113) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

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