Mavericks vs. Jazz: NBA Picks and Predictions

The red-hot Utah Jazz look to complete a two-game home sweep of the Dallas Mavericks on Friday night but could be without Donovan Mitchell again. Which way to lean at SBR’s top-rated sportsbooks? 

Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz 

Friday, January 29, 2021 – 10:00 PM EST at Vivint Smart Home Arena

As I’m sure every NBA fan knows by now, this year’s regular-season schedule is quite different with only 72 games – and it’s far from a sure thing that every team plays the full 72 games. There are a lot of baseball-type series to cut down on travel, meaning clubs play back-to-back games in one location instead of a traditional home-and-home. 

That’s the case here as Utah beat visiting Dallas 116-104 on Wednesday. The teams are not scheduled to play again in the first half and surely will not play again this season (barring the playoffs) in Salt Lake City. Presumably, the Jazz will visit Dallas at least once in the second half. 

This is actually the first baseball-type series of the season for the Mavs. It’s the second for Utah, which swept two at home against New Orleans on Jan. 19 & 21. 

Including Wednesday, the Jazz have won the past eight meetings in Salt Lake City; technically, the Mavs were the “road” team when beating Utah in the Orlando bubble last summer. Overall, the Jazz are 67-23 at home vs. Dallas. They are 5-4-1 against the spread on NBA picks in the past 10 at home, but again, that includes the one game in Orlando.  

Mavs In 3-Game Funk 

On our Wednesday upset picks story, we picked Dallas as having a shot to win in Utah even though the Jazz were on a nine-game winning streak.  Our thinking was that the Mavs were on normal rest, getting a few players back off the COVID list and that Utah was playing the second of a back-to-back and maybe, just maybe, a Jazz player got hurt Tuesday night. 

Funny thing is, at around noon on Wednesday it was announced Jazz All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell was out in the concussion protocol from Tuesday’s game. That dropped the spread on Mavs-Jazz from -4 to -2 in favor of Utah and I was really feeling good about a potential Dallas win. 

Alas, the Mavs lost 116-104 – their third straight defeat. The Mavericks were down by 25 points late in the third before garbage time allowed them to get the score respectable. The defense has been a problem in that skid, allowing an average of 122.0 points per. Dallas, which had given up 70 first-half points in each of the two previous games, allowed 69 in the first half vs. Utah.  

| @JordanClarksons is a problem

31p | 7r | 4 3pm | 1b | 1s pic.twitter.com/X3Re1AHIdR

— utahjazz (@utahjazz) January 28, 2021

The Mavs did get back Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Dwight Powell off the COVID list, but none of them did much and their minutes were limited after being away from the team so long. Finney-Smith’s return shifted Willie Cauley-Stein to the bench and he disappeared with two points in three whole minutes.  

Per usual, Luka Doncic led the way for Dallas with 30 points, six assists, and four rebounds, although Dallas was outscored by seven points with him on the floor. Kristaps Porzingis was minus-24 in 32 minutes.  

The Mavs are 1-4 ATS at the top-rated betting sites in their past five after a loss. 

Jazz Are Cashing For Bettors 

Don’t look now, but Utah has the NBA’s best record (14-4) and longest winning streak of the season at 10 in a row – amazingly covering the spread in all of them. The Jazz have outscored opponents by 153 points in the streak and won all but one by double digits. They have trailed in the fourth quarter for a total of 57 seconds overall in that stretch. 

While Utah is the -210 favorite on the NBA futures odds at BetOnline to win the Northwest Division, the Jazz are still +750 third favorites in the Western Conference and +1600 to win their first NBA title. 

With Mitchell out, Jordan Clarkson took his scoring role Wednesday with 31 points off the bench in 33 minutes – no other bench player saw more than 13 minutes. It was the 10^th time in Clarkson’s career that he had a 30-point game, and he has spent most of it coming off the bench.  

Aussie Joe Ingles actually started for Mitchell (the first time this season the Jazz have changed their starting lineup) and had 21 points, eight assists and four rebounds. Believe it or not, Ingles needs just two more made three-pointers to pass Hall of Famer John Stockton (845) for the Jazz’s all-time franchise record. 

Rudy Gobert dominated the post with 29 points and 20 rebounds for his first 20/20 game of the season. Utah outrebounded Dallas 50-36 and on one possession got four offensive rebounds that would lead to a dunk by Gobert. 

Backup big man Derrick Favors also was out, too early to know for Friday on Favors (not that he would affect any pick). Mitchell, who averages 23.4 points and 4.9 assists, was also out. Both are listed as questionable for this game. 

This hot streak can’t last forever, but the Jazz are 9-0 ATS on the NBA odds in their past nine as favorites. This will be closer than Wednesday but we’ll give the points. 

NBA pick: Jazz at -4.5 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Jazz -4.5(-110)

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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

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