This Spring, we are launching our coverage of the 2024 presidential election cycle — nice and early! Is it far too soon to make a picture-perfect prediction about the state of US politics in three years?
Absolutely!
Nevertheless, the top prospective candidates are already creating teams and surveying the political landscape ahead of the next two election cycles, so why wouldn’t we?
The top political betting sites are already getting in on the 2024 futures betting action — political handicappers would be crazy not to start studying electoral conditions and game planning too.
Admittedly, lots can – and will – happen between now and the next general election cycle.
We won’t be making concrete predictions or staking significant resources on the 2024 contests yet. However, we can observe high-potential candidates’ messaging choices and political maneuverings to get a better idea of who has presidential aspirations and how the fields of competitors start to take shape.
At an extremely premature first glance, the 2024 presidential election cycle promises to be fascinating.
Both major parties have enormous geriatric albatrosses hanging over their heads. White House suitors on both sides must weigh their personal ambitions against the possibility of offending Joe Biden or Donald Trump by infringing on their respective decisions.
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Announce one’s intentions too soon, and it could aggravate the most important voices at the top of each party.
For example, Pete Buttigieg can’t launch a 2024 campaign before President Biden officially retires or declines to seek reelection.
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Wait too long, and a candidate could miss out on valuable momentum and prestigious endorsements.
For example, even if Donald Trump Sr. Decides not to run again, he will still wield immense influence over GOP voters.
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Right now, the odds imply that Trump will single-handedly decide the Republican nomination with his endorsement.
Right-wing contenders can’t announce their intentions to run before Trump publicly bows out – lest they risk insult — but must be in a position to receive the torch from the 45th president of the United States once he makes his plans known.
Democrats’ 2024 Outlook
On the Democrats’ side, President Joe Biden and his VP, Kamala Harris, are favorites to win the nomination. Of course, those plans are entirely reliant upon the health of the 78-year-old incumbent.
If she’s the sitting President in ’24, Kamala will probably run unopposed for the Democratic nomination. But if Biden finishes his four years, then decides to retire, that’s different.
Either way, Vice President Harris will be the DNC’s favorite — but the field of competitors could expand over concerns stemming from her flop of a 2020 campaign.
Should preliminarily rounds of polling show similar appeal levels as Kamala’s December 2019 stats, Dem operatives will be inclined to open up the field.
Republicans’ 2024 Outlook
The situation is even less within the Republican Party. The GOP finds itself in a transitional period with powers on both ends of the inner-party ideological schism jockeying to lead US conservatism in their respective direction.
Moderates want to restore “order” and “decorum” after Donald Trump. They want a return to Bush-era conservatism based on free-market fundamentalism, free trade, and hawkish foreign policy.
These establishment neocons are substantially outnumbered by Trumpism’s wing of the GOP, which is redesigning the party to appeal to more working-class sensibilities (even if the promises of populism are nothing but empty rhetoric and “culture war” distractions).
As a result, the 2024 party nomination is wholly up to Trump.
- If he wants another crack at the White House, Donald Trump Sr is the candidate.
- If he prefers occupying the “Kingmaker” role on the sideline – all the attention and power with none of the responsibility – Trump will anoint the Republican nominee via his endorsement.
To find additional 2024 presidential election odds, visit our highest-ranked political betting sites!
Sen. Marco Rubio
In 2016, the Florida Senator was one of the Donald Trump primary buzzsaw’s most memorable casualties. Over the years since, Rubio has embraced aspects of Trump’s conservative style while straddling the line and attempting to unite the party’s “populist right” with establishment moderates.
Sen. Rubio told Axios in late November that “Republicans need to rebrand their party as the champions of working-class voters and steer away from its traditional embrace of big business.”
He appears to be exploring a path to the White House built upon “working-class” cultural appeals – and perhaps aspects of Trump’s anti-interventionism and trade policies –but with a more polished presentation and a friendlier relationship with the establishment.
Walking the Tightrope Between Trump and “Polite” GOP
Since the 2020 election concluded, Marco Rubio has been vocal about his desire to reshape the GOP.
Lessons from 2020
- Trump lost the White House but received over 70 million votes in the process – the second most in US election history.
- Republicans also gained seats in the House.
- It’s obvious the conservative electorate is still enthusiastically behind Donald Trump – and nowhere near ready to “get back to normal.”
Like so many post-Trump/next-generation Republicans (ex. Hawley, Cotton, DeSantis), the senior Senator from Florida believes he can harness the chaos and working-class language of Trump’s 2016 campaign without the former President’s baggage.
Currently, he’s attempting this by hyper-focusing on culture war issues like “cancellations,” Dr. Suess, conservative censorship on social media. Most “Trump Republicans” are also zealous opponents of pandemic lockdown measures.
“Common Good” Conservatism
Marco Rubio plans to address this moment in US political history with what he’s coined “Common Good Conservatism.”
Facing unprecedented levels of wealth inequality and a worsening economic crisis, the majority of Americans surveyed said they believe the next generation of citizens will have it worse than their parents – the first time in US history that’s been so.
Rubio believes the GOP’s future success relies upon constructing its post-Trump identity around those sentiments. He describes a plan to make Republicans “the party of common-sense wisdom and working-class values.”
To the extent that any real “Trumpist” economic analysis exists, the former President’s leading heirs tend to share in his desire to restrict immigration across the US’s southern border along with the 45th president’s more adversarial positioning towards China. However, they rarely vocalize support of measures like Trump’s tariffs.
- He expresses faith in conservative ideologies while acknowledging that “the free market exists to serve our people. Our people don’t exist to serve the free market.”
- Rubio also recognizes Americans’ deteriorating attitudes towards large corporations “that only care about how their shares are performing, even if it’s based on moving production overseas for cheaper labor.”
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“We still have a very strong base in the party of donors and think tanks and intelligentsia from the right who are market fundamentalists, who accuse anyone who’s not a market fundamentalist of being a socialist to some degree,” Sen. Rubio explained to Axios, describing the establishment Chamber of Commerce Republicans who’ve dominated the party since the Reagan administration.
“If the takeaway from all of them is ‘now’s the time to go back to sort of the traditional party of unfettered free trade,’ I think we’re gonna lose the [Trump] base as quickly as we got it. … We can’t just go back to being that,” he continued.
- Rubio also discussed variables like the anti-establishment messaging that propelled Trump’s 2016 campaign past Hillary Clinton. “They’re very suspicious, quite frankly, dismissive of elites at every level. And obviously, that’s a powerful sentiment,” the FL Senator mentioned.
More importantly, those quotes demonstrate Rubio’s awareness that the GOP must move away from ideologues like Mitch McConnell if they’re to retain any of the working-class appeal created by Trump.
If the right loses blue-collar voters without recapturing the giant swathes of the suburbs lost to the Democrats, Republicans are doomed electorally for the foreseeable future.
Yet, he always stops short of meaningful material solutions.
The Florida Senator points out the flaws in existing orthodoxies and appropriates working-class aesthetics without advocating for genuine populism.
Rubio recently wrote a USA Today op-ed outlining his support for Amazon workers fighting to unionize at an Alabama warehouse.
The angle he takes in the dispute is the perfect encapsulation of how the Senator conveys “working-class populism” while perpetuating the usual Republican, anti-labor arguments.
Supporting Organized Labor vs. Amazon
Recently, political pundits were caught off-guard by Sen. Marco Rubio openly taking the side of workers trying to unionize against their Amazon employers.
“The days of conservatives being taken for granted by the business community are over,” Sen. Rubio wrote in USA Today two weeks ago, referring to a common conception among Republicans that Big Tech giants like Amazon engage in “anticompetitive strategies” and censorship against conservative voices.
In the op-ed, Rubio levies the usual right-wing, anti-union talking points about “adversarial relations between labor and management [being] wrong” while simultaneously supporting the Amazon employees’ effort.
“Republicans have rightly understood the dangers posed by the unchecked influence of labor unions. Adversarial relations between labor and management are wrong. They are wrong for both workers and our nation’s economic competitiveness,” he explains.
Nevertheless, Rubio supports an ongoing effort by Amazon workers in Alabama to unionize. Corporations like Amazon, he says, have “been allies of the left in the culture war,” except for “when their bottom line is threatened,” and which point he alleges they “turn to conservatives to save them.”
The article exposes that Rubio’s opinions aren’t rooted in an underlying ideology; his stance on any given topic depends on the players involved.
“Here’s my standard: When the conflict is between working Americans and a company whose leadership has decided to wage culture war against working-class values, the choice is easy — I support the workers. And that’s why I stand with those at Amazon’s Bessemer warehouse today.”
“Uniquely malicious corporate behavior like Amazon’s justifies a more adversarial approach to labor relations. It is no fault of Amazon’s workers if they feel the only option available to protect themselves against bad faith is to form a union. Today it might be workplace conditions, but tomorrow it might be a requirement that the workers embrace management’s latest “woke” human resources fad.”
Rubio’s piece reads like an attempt to re-establish the balance of power between Republicans and Big Tech.
He doesn’t want collective bargaining, higher pay, and improved conditions for Amazon warehouse workers as much as he wishes to cause pain for Jeff Bezos.
The Senator outright admits he’ll only support labor movements occurring at companies deemed antagonistic or unfair to Republicans!
One might even assume all Amazon needs is to donate to conservatives and distribute censorship somewhat more evenly, and Republicans like Rubio will go back to focusing on the “right to work” and the “free market.” You know, in the name of “building bridges” and such.
Over the next couple of years, we should learn the following:
- Is Sen. Rubio merely co-opting the labor issue as part of a larger conservative culture war?
- Is it possible that the Florida Senator genuinely supports stronger unions but knows the only way to back workers without alienating the Chamber of Commerce Republicans is to wrap his support in cultural gripes?
Only time will tell…
Will Marco Rubio Run (Again) in 2024?
We can’t yet know whether Marco Rubio will emerge as a serious contender for the Republican presidential nomination. He’s starting from as good a spot as almost every realistic GOP candidate not named “Trump” or “DeSantis.”
On the one hand, the Florida Senator’s 2016 effort was less than inspiring. On the other, the senior Senator has shown the determination for making post-Trump adjustments to the GOP while understanding the necessity of doing so.
To gain the kind of momentum required to win the 2024 primaries, Sen. Rubio must continue increasing his populist bonafides while convincing Trump supporters he’ll be a disruptive force opposing the political establishment.
It will prove an exceptionally tricky path to walk – not that there’s any shortage of Republican presidential hopefuls intent upon walking it!
2024 Democratic Primary Odds:
2024 Presidential Election Odds:
https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/marco-rubios-2024-election-betting-odds/
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