Best Sports Picks March Madness

March Madness Betting Breakdown: South Regional

March 19, 2021
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After already reviewing the West and Midwest regionals, today we take a look at the South Regional. The South Regional is full of teams that nobody expected to be playing in the tournament, as several of the AQ teams in the region finished well down their regular season league standings. There might not be a region more up for grabs than the South region, with Baylor, Ohio State, and Villanova all stumbling to the finish line of the regular season. There is ample opportunity for madness in this region!

All week long at TheSportsGeek, we are going to bring you an in-depth breakdown and analysis of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, bringing you all of the sharp betting advice you need to win your college hoops bets and your bracket pool! Let’s get started!

First Round Matchups

In this first section, we are going to take a look at each of the eight first round matchups in the midwest Regional. Not only are we going to tell you which teams are going to win and advance, but we are also going to tell you which teams are going to cover the spread. Good teams win, great teams cover!

#1 Baylor Bears (-25.5) (22-2) vs. #16 Hartford Hawks (15-8)

For much of the season, the Baylor Bears had a legitimate claim to being the top team in the nation. College hoops fans were robbed of seeing the Bears playing against Gonzaga in the non-conference when the game was canceled just minutes before tipoff, and when Baylor was sitting at 18-0, it was hard to deny that they just might be the best team in the country. But since then, the Bears have stumbled somewhat, as they have lost twice and had close calls to bad teams like Iowa State and Kansas State. I’m not trying to say this Baylor team isn’t elite; they absolutely are, but they aren’t playing as well right now as they were a month ago, and that’s for sure.

Baylor gets an easy game to start the tournament, as they match up with the Hartford Hawks, the champions of the America East conference tournament. Hartford was a surprise champion in the AEC, as they finished 4th in the regular season, and they are sure to be outmatched in this game against Baylor. The line is absurdly overpriced, though, so I will take the Hawks getting a ton of points and hope that they just get blown out, not embarrassed, by a Baylor team that isn’t at their best right now.

#2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-16) (21-9) vs. #15 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (16-10)

Similar to Baylor, Ohio State isn’t peaking at the right time, as they head into the madness. Ohio State surged into the top-5 nationally when they reeled off 10 wins in 11 games, including wins over the likes of Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. But the Buckeyes hit the skids at the end of the regular season, losing 4 straight games to close out the year. They did right the ship somewhat in the Big 10 tournament, though, as they made it to the finals before losing to Illinois in overtime.

Oral Roberts was another surprise team, as they finished in 4th place in the Summit League regular season standings, and before a 5-game winning streak to end the season, including the run to the league conference tournament title that got them their dancing shoes, the Golden Eagles were sitting at just 11-10 on the year. The Golden Eagles have a porous defense ranked 285th in the nation, and it feels like the Buckeyes 4th rated offense is going to run wild in this game. 16 points is a lot of points to lay in an NCAA tournament game, but with Oral Roberts’s inability to defend and Ohio State’s ability to score efficiently, this one is going to get out of hand quickly. Back the Buckeyes in a blowout.

#3 Arkansas Razorbacks (-8.5) (22-6) vs. #14 Colgate Raiders (14-1)

I have been riding Arkansas all season long. I am a huge fan of the Razorbacks head coach, Eric Musselman, from his time at Nevada, and now that he is coaching in a power conference, his recruiting has gone into overdrive, and he is ready to lead Arkansas to dominance in the SEC for years to come. The Razorbacks finished 2nd to Alabama in the SEC this season, and they are poised for a deep run in March as they were on fire, winning 12 of 13 before losing to LSU in the SEC conference tournament.

But this game feels like it could be a trap for Arkansas, as they are forced to play a Colgate team that almost never losses. Colgate is 14-1 on the year, and really, they haven’t even been challenged often, as they have won all but one of their games by at least 9-points. The Patriot League was not great this year, so it’s hard to know if those wins are legit or not, and with Colgate having not played a single non-conference game, that is all we have to go off of right now. A lot of people are looking at this game as a sexy upset pick, but I’m not. I think Arkansas will run the Raiders into the dirt with their aggressive defense and fast pace and that they win and advance, covering the spread along the way.

#4 Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5) (18-9) vs. #13 North Texas Mean Green (17-9)

We all know just how great the Big 10 has been this year. The league got a whopping 9 teams into the NCAA tournament, and in the final AP Poll of the year, the league had 4 teams in the top-10. But one team we aren’t hearing a lot about, is the Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue has been under the radar all season long, and Matt Painter’s team has very quietly had a stellar season. Purdue came out of the gates slow to start the season at 7-5, but since then, they are 11-4, and they have a nice collection of signature wins on their resume. The Boilermakers beat Ohio State (twice), Michigan State, Wisconsin, Maryland, and Liberty, all teams that are playing in the NCAA tournament.

The Boilermakers will continue to try and prove people wrong as they play against the North Texas Mean Green, the Conference USA tournament champions. The South Regional is chalked full of teams that weren’t expected to be dancing, and you can add North Texas to that list, as the Mean Green finished tied for 5th in Conference USA in the regular season. North Texas lost the last 3-games of the regular season before winning 4 games in 4 days to win the Conference USA tournament and punch their dance cards. Not shockingly, the Boilermakers feel undervalued in this game as they have double digit victories over Penn State, Michigan State, Indiana, Liberty, Notre Dame, and Nebraska, all teams that rank better or similarly to North Texas. I expect more of the same as Purdue wins, covers, and nobody talks about it, as they continue to fly under the radar.

#5 Villanova Wildcats (-6) (16-6) vs. #12 Winthrop Eagles (23-1)

If this isn’t a prototypical 12/5 upset game, I don’t know what is! Villanova was looked at as one of the top teams in the nation for much of the season, but since their senior leader, point guard Collin Gillespie, went down with an injury, the Wildcats just haven’t been the same. After an 11-1 start, the Wildcats were just 5-5 in the second half of the season, and they have losses to Providence, Georgetown, Butler, and St. John’s that were bad ones.

Winthrop, on the other hand, just doesn’t lose, as they are 23-1 on the year, and they smashed their way through the Big South conference tournament, going 3-0 with an average margin of victory of nearly 26-points per game. A lot of people are calling this upset, and I hate to be a bandwagon fan and bet with the public, but I also see Winthrop winning this game. Villanova was playing bad down the stretch, and they just haven’t been able to replace what Gillespie did for them on the floor and in the locker room. I am taking the Eagles and the points and also making a play on Winthrop to win this one outright and advance.

#6 Texas Tech Red Raiders (-4) (17-10) vs. #11 Utah State Aggies (20-8)

It is hard to know just how good this Texas Tech team is this year. We all thought they would be really good coming into this season, and at times, they have lived up to that hype. But at other times, they looked good, but not great. The Red Raiders are just 6-7 in their last 13 games, and 3 of those wins came against teams that aren’t playing in the NCAA tournament. Chris Beard has a reputation for winning big games in the tournament, but this year, it doesn’t feel like he has a team that can get to the Final Four.

I am surprised at this number, though, as, despite the fact I am a bit bearish on the Red Raider’s ability to cut down the nets this year, I don’t think Utah State should even be in the tournament at all! You can count me as a Mountain West conference hater, as I feel that the league was wildly overrated this year. Outside of league play, the Aggies were downright bad, as they went 3-3 in the non-conference with losses to BYU, VCU, and South Dakota State. Utah State acquitted themselves well in league play, but again, I just don’t think that is as impressive as a lot of other people do. Texas Tech wins this one and covers the spread as I am taking a Big 12 team over a MWC team every time.

#7 Florida Gators (-1) (14-9) vs. #10 Virginia Tech Hokies (15-6)

The Florida Gators could have been a team that competed at the top of the SEC this year. But after losing their best player, Keyontae Johnson, to a heart ailment, the Gators have struggled to keep their heads above water. Florida has wins over West Virginia, LSU, Ole Miss, and Tennessee, but most of their wins came over teams like Kentucky, Georgia, Auburn, and Vanderbilt that aren’t playing meaningful games in March.

Virginia Tech hasn’t been playing their best recently, but they have shown that they can beat really good teams. Virginia Tech beat Villanova early in the year when they were healthy, and they also have wins over Clemson, Duke, and Virginia. The selection committee seems to think that Florida is the better team in this game, but I think the Hokies are the more accomplished squad. I like Virginia Tech to win this game in a mild upset.

#8 North Carolina Tar Heels (-1.5) (18-10) vs. #9 Wisconsin Badgers (17-12)

North Carolina is playing well in the last month. After an up and down start to the season, North Carolina added several signature wins to their resume by beating Duke, Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Louisville. The Tar Heels 18-10 record looks a bit mediocre on the surface, but their SOS of 28th tells me that they actually had a successful season. The Heels already have 12 wins over the top-100 this year and matched up against a Wisconsin team that is in free fall; it feels like they are about to add another nice win to their record.

Wisconsin fell victim to a brutal Big 10 schedule, and after an 8-1 start to the season, they are just 9-11 since. The Badgers played the 9th toughest schedule in the country, and of their 12 losses, all of them came against teams in the top-100, and a whopping 8 of them came against the top-10. Winning in March is all about momentum, and right now, the Badgers just don’t have it. They have only lost to good teams, but North Carolina is a good team too. This game will be competitive, and I wouldn’t want to lay a ton of wood on the Tar Heels, but I think Roy Williams finds a way to win this game and cover the number.

Potential Upsets After Round One

In this section, we are going to start projecting how things are going to go down after the first round. This can get sticky quickly, as we are projecting games between teams that might not even be playing, but if you want to identify those Bracket Busters early on, this is the place to do it.

#3 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. #2 Ohio State Buckeyes

After taking a couple of underdogs in the first round and seeing two double digits seeds advance in Virginia Tech and Winthrop, I see the round of 32 going all chalk. But the upsets pick up again in the Sweet 16, as I have both Arkansas and Purdue picking up upsets. Not only do I have Arkansas knocking off the higher-seeded Ohio State, but I also have them winning this bracket and heading to the Final Four. The Razorbacks have been blistering hot as of late, and I see them riding their momentum all of the way to the Final Four.

#4 Purdue Boilermakers vs. #1 Baylor Bears

I nearly went out on a limp and picked Baylor to lose to North Carolina, but I feel that Baylor will sneak out of that game with a win. But I see the Bears season ending well earlier than most people do, as I just don’t like what I have seen out of this team recently. They played with fire and nearly lost to awful teams like Kansas State and Iowa State, and if they keep playing around like that against Purdue, they are going to lose. Maybe Baylor losses to North Carolina, maybe they lose to Purdue, or maybe it takes Arkansas to knock them off, but at the end of the day, I don’t see the Bears emerging from the South Regional. Sorry Baylor fans, but this ain’t your year!

Who Wins The South Region?

I just talked about how I feel that Arkansas is going to win this region. The Razorbacks are peaking at the perfect time, and with Baylor and Ohio State doing the exact opposite, it is Arkansas that is the team to beat down south, in my opinion. Was the SEC as good as the Big 10 or Big 12 this year? No, it wasn’t. But it wasn’t far off, as the SEC finished 3rd on Kenpom’s conference power rankings this year. A great team, from a good league, with a fantastic coach, that is peaking late in the season? That is a recipe for success in March.

Wrap Up

We are now just a couple of days away from the start of the NCAA tournaments and don’t you dare fill out your bracket without first consulting TheSportsGeek’s legion of college hoops experts. And when you do get that bracket all filled out, make sure you check out TheSportsGeek’s March Madness bracket challenge, where you can win cash, cars, and guaranteed prizes!

https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/march-madness-betting-breakdown-south-regional/

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