Best Sports Picks Parlay Of The Day

Major League Baseball Parlay Of The Day 6-2-21

June 3, 2021
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Unfortunately for us, the month of June didn’t start out as well as the month of May ended, as we had a rough day yesterday. That being said, it wasn’t a complete disaster of a day as we did find dog some juicy dog money winners on the Cardinals (+165) and Rockies (-104) and money line winners on the Indians (-148) and Astros (-134), as well as hitting a couple of totals bets. And while we didn’t hit a parlay yesterday, after hitting several last week worth over $5,000, it didn’t have to be the way, as we ran unlucky in a couple of key spots.

Both the Seattle Mariners and New York Mets blew multi-runs leads, with Seattle leading 4-1 and losing 12-6 and the Mets leading 4-0 before blowing the game late and losing 6-5. Those beats both stung, but the really painful loss yesterday came to us on our 3-team totals parlay. We took the over in both the White Sox/Indians game and the Phillies/Reds game, and both early games came in well above the total, putting us just a game away from cashing our parlay. The final leg of the parlay was on the over 7.5 runs in the Padres/Cubs game. Our bet was looking like a lock in that one, as the teams combined for 7 runs in the first 5 innings, and all we needed was 1 more run to cash our ticket for a jumbo $700 payout.

But despite several base runners in the game’s final 4 innings of play, including a spot where the Cubs had 1st and 3rd and just 1 out in the 7th inning, we couldn’t plate that final run and came up a half of a run short of a winning parlay. It was one of those spots where you have huge long-term EV, but the variance took hold, and we got unlucky. What can you do? I guess you have to run bad once in a while, right? Today, we get back to the drawing board, in search of max value, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!

Money Line Parlay

Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on money line parlays. The money line is your most basic way to bet on a baseball game. Because baseball has so few runs scored, we don’t see a point spread on a game like we do with the NFL and the NBA; rather, MLB betting offers a money line bet. With a money line bet, if you want to bet the favorite, you have to lay odds, and if you want to bet the underdog, the book will lay you odds. One example would be the New York Yankees as -200 betting favorites. That means you win $100 for every $200 that you bet on New York if the Yankees win. If you want to take an underdog, an example would be The Seattle Mariners +200. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win $200 if Seattle comes in.

Minnesota Twins (-143) at Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles have been the worst home field team in the American League this season. That didn’t stop them from picking up the rare win yesterday at Camden Yard against the Minnesota Twins, but it is hard to expect a team that is just 7-19 at home to win back-to-back games. After having a respectable month of April, Matt Harvey saw the wheels fall off in May, as he made 6 starts and went 1-5 with an ERA of nearly double digits. In his last 5 starts, Harvey has gotten hammered for a combined 28 total runs, and the Orioles lost all 5 games, with a run differential of -21. In his last 2 starts in Baltimore, he gave up 10 total runs in just 5.2 innings pitched on a whopping 11 hits and 2 walks.

Randy Dobnak hasn’t been a lot better for the Twins, as he has an ERA of 6 and a half runs. Dobnak was a solid starter for Minnesota last season, and after being used out of the bullpen exclusively this season, Minnesota gave him a shot as a starter late last month. In his 1st outing as a starter, he tossed 6 shutout innings against the Cleveland Indians. But in his last start, he got roughed up by the Kansas City Royals for 6 earned runs. Dobnak was actually pitching fairly well in that start against KC, as he didn’t allow a run until the 5th inning and was still in the game in the 7th, where he was clearly out of gas and gave up several more runs when he probably shouldn’t have still been in the game.

This play on Minnesota is a straight fade of Matt Harvey and the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore has been too awful at home this year to expect them to win again today, after winning yesterday, and when you look at how terrible Matt Harvey has been in the last several weeks, it feels like the Twins are going to light him up. I don’t love backing the Twins, as they stink, but if backing the Twins means that I get to fade the Orioles, then sign me up.

Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays (-157)

Alek Manoah is going to be a superstar someday for the Toronto Blue Jays. Last week, Manoah made his long awaiting Big League debut, at Yankee Stadium no less, and dazzled, as he shut down the Bronx Bombers to the tune of 6 shutout innings, allowing just 2 hits while striking out 7. Manoah was a first-round draft pick back in 2019 and has been on the fast track to the show ever since. He was nearly unhittable in triple-A this year, with a 0.50 ERA in 3 starts, and he forced the Jays hand, demanding to be called up, as his production just couldn’t be ignored. Today, he gets to pitch against a Miami Marlins team that has been one of the weakest hitting and lowest scoring teams in baseball all season long, and he just might do something special.

Miami will try and match Manoah with a budding young star of their own in Pablo Lopez. Lopez has been mostly great this season for Miami as he has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 9 of his 11 starts, but on the road, he has had a couple of blow up starts that have seen his road ERA inflate to over 5 runs. The concerning thing for Miami fans is that even when Lopez has pitched well, it hasn’t always converted to wins, as the Marlins are just 5-6 when Lopez starts this season. If you want to get on board with this Alek Manoah hype train, you better jump on now, as the books are already pricing him aggressively. If this kid keeps pitching like he did last week, we are going to quickly see him priced like an ace, which will make it hard to back him profitably. I’ll take Toronto today as Manoah is going to pitch well, and Pablo Lopez just might get hammered, and even if he does pitch well, it probably won’t matter, as the Marlins never win when he pitches anyway.

Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies (-104)

Yesterday we got to back the Colorado Rockies as home underdogs against a Texas Rangers team that had the worst road record in the American League and had lost 12 straight road games. Today, the teams run it back for game 2 of this series, and the Rangers have now lost 13 straight road games, and inexplicably they are again road favorites. I am not sure what the books see in the Rangers in this matchup, but I don’t see any way that you can justify Texas as being the favorite when they haven’t won on the road in nearly a month. Jordan Lyles is decent on occasion, but his full body of work shows me a guy with a 2-4 record and 5.79 ERA.

And yeah, Antonio Senzatela isn’t any good either, but he has pitched better in his last couple of starts than he did earlier in the year, as he has allowed just 5 combined earned runs in his last 3 outings. As bad as the Rockies have been on the road, and they are all-time bad away from home, they are actually a pretty good team when they play at Coors Field. In Denver this season, the Rockies are 17-12. Those 17 wins are the 4th most in the National League, trailing only the Cardinals, Dodgers, and Padres. Playing baseball in the thin air of the Rocky Mountains is very different than playing anywhere else, and the Rockies have it figured out. If they could ever win on the road, they could end up posting a respectable record. In this bet, I get to take advantage of an underrated home team while also fading the worst road team in the AL and get juice to do it, and if that isn’t high value, I don’t know what is!

Money Line Parlay

  • Teams Odds
  • Minnesota Twins -143
  • Toronto Blue Jays -157
  • Colorado Rockies -104

$100 Bet Pays $546

Game Total Parlay

The game total bet, commonly known as an over/under bet, is when you bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. These totals tend to range from 7 or 8 runs on the low end up to 12 to 13 runs on the high end, and you have to pay juice on both sides of the action. A typical totals bet would be, for example, 8 total runs with -110 juice on the over or the under. If the teams combine to score 9 runs or more, the book pays out the over bets, if the game comes in at 7 runs or less the books pay the under bets, and if the total lands right at 8 runs, all bets push.

Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays Under 8 Runs (-110)

We already talked about how Alek Manoah is a stone-cold savage on the mound, and more likely than not, Pablo Lopez is going to be at least decent as well. This total feels far too high for a matchup with such strong starting pitching, and this number stinks of public ignorance when it comes to just how good these guys actually are. We see that a lot in Major League Baseball betting, where pitchers with big names, but mediocre results, guys like Patrick Corbin and Eduardo Rodrguez come to mind, get priced like aces, and young guys that nobody really knows yet, get priced like bums. I love to find spots like this one where the number is off just because Joe Public doesn’t know that Alek Manoah is a monster and that Pablo Lopez very rarely gets touched up. The Blue Jay’s bats scare me a little bit, but the weak Marlin’s lineup should help offset those fears, and will I jump on the under 8 runs in this one.

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros Under 9 Runs (-110)

Speaking of a couple of underappreciated starting pitchers, Framber Valdez and Nick Pivetta are both pitching really well, and I am shocked to see such a high total in this game. At least in his game, both of these teams are high scoring and capable of putting crooked numbers up on the scoreboard, so the line is somewhat defensible, but at the end of the day, I see the under as the side to be on. We are going to break down this one in more detail here in a little bit, but Nick Pivetta is having a career year at 6-0 with a 3.86 ERA, and Framber Valdez looked sharp in his 1st outing of the season last week and was great for Houston in 2020, with a 3.57 ERA. These teams can both hit the baseball, but I don’t see double-digit runs hitting the board tonight at Minute Maid Park.

Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 Runs (-110)

Matt Harvey might give up enough runs all by himself to push this total to the over! Harvey has allowed at least 5 earned runs in each of his last 4 starts, and even though I think Randy Dobnak is a much better pitcher than his current stats might lead you to believe, it’s not like he is going to go out and completely shut down the Orioles today either. This is one of those games where neither team is in contention, both starters have major question marks, and these teams are going to play carefree and just might beat each other’s brains in. This game has slugfest written all over it and could end up going WAY over the total. It is a high number, but I doubt we even end up sweating it out much as there will be fireworks today in Baltimore.

Game Total Parlay

  • Teams Odds
  • Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays Under 8 Runs -110
  • Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros Under 9 Runs -110
  • Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 Runs -110

$100 Bet Pays $700

The Daily Dog

Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can find high-value underdogs on the board basically every day betting Major League Baseball, and there is no way to win faster than by parlaying a couple of dogs together and getting paid.

Tampa Bay Rays (+120) at New York Yankees

The Tampa Bay Rays picked up a rare loss yesterday, as they had won 15 of their previous 16 games before blowing a 2-0 lead yesterday in the Bronx against the New York Yankees. The Rays usually stellar bullpen gave the game away in the bottom of the 11th inning when Clint Frazier walked it off with a 2-run bomb. The teams rematch today with New York trying to further close the gap on the 1st place Rays, with Jordan Montgomery getting the start for the Yankees. Montgomery has been hot and cold for the Yankees, as he has had some nice outings, but he has also allowed at least 3 earned runs in 6 of his last 9 starts.

Shane McClanahan gets the nod for Tampa Bay, hoping to stay hot. McClanahan made 5 starts last month, and the Rays were a perfect 5-0 in his outings. I can’t give McClanahan all of the credit, though, as he only worked a combined 23.1 innings pitched in those starts, but he has done more than enough to give his team a chance to win games every time that he pitches, and the Rays have taken advantage of that, and they are winning a lot of games. I am pretty surprised to see Tampa Bay as dogs in this game, as Shane McClanahan is the better side of the starting pitching matchup, and the Rays have been blistering hot as of late. Tampa Bay has the most wins in Major League Baseball, yet the books continue to disrespect them and price them conservatively. I have been backing the Rays a bunch in the last month, and I love to be able to get them today as road dogs, as in addition to having the most wins in baseball, the Rays also lead MLB in road wins. I smell upset in the Big Apple.

Boston Red Sox (+125) at Houston Astros

I have bet on the Houston Astros in each of the first 2 games of this series and cashed tickets both times. But here in game 3, I will switch gears and jump on the other side and back the Boston Red Sox. Nick Pivetta has been really good this year for Boston, as the Red Sox have won each of his last 6 starts, and on the year, they are 9-1 in his 10 starts. Pivetta is looking like a lock to make his first-ever All-Star team this season, at 6-0 with a 3.86 ERA. This Red Sox lineup has been near the top of the game in every hitting stat, and they love to support Pivetta with ample run support. Boston has scored 7 earned runs or more 6 times, and the combination of a high scoring offense and Pivetta’s solid results has led to a lot of success for the Red Sox. Boston came into this series as one of the best road teams in the American League, and after dropping the first 2 games of this series, they are going to get back on track today in game 3 of this 4-game set.

The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay

  • Teams Odds
  • Tampa Bay Rays +120
  • Boston Red Sox +125

$100 Bet Pays $495

Get Rich Or Die Trying

In this final section, we are going to go for the jumbo payouts! These are your lottery ticket types of plays that aren’t going to come in all that often but pay off big time when they do. A wise man once said, if you don’t swing hard, you never hit any home runs. Well, in this section, we swing for the fences!

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (-157)

It’s looking like the end of the road is near for veteran starter Jon Lester. Lester got off to a late start to his season, and after pitching fairly well in his first couple of starts, Lester hasn’t been very good recently. In his last 3 starts, Lester has managed to work just 13.1 innings and has gotten hammered for 12 total runs. Washington was just 1-4 in the month of May with Lester on the mound, and only the Colorado Rockies have fewer road wins in the National League right now than the Nationals. Drew Smyly isn’t any good either, but his best start of the season came against these Nationals, where he worked 6 innings and allowed just a single unearned run. The Braves have been one of the more frustrating teams in the majors this year, as they are supremely talented but have been inconsistent in terms of wins and losses. I’ll lay a little wood on Atlanta, as they are in too good of a spot to blow this game in a soft matchup.

St. Louis Cardinals (+200) at Los Angeles Dodgers

Yesterday when we backed the St. Louis Cardinals as huge underdogs, I mentioned that the line was off by at least 50 points. St. Louis is a really good team that only trails LA in the win column by 1 win, yet the Dodgers were laying -200? It didn’t make any sense at all. It was by no means a lock, but a play on the Cardinals showed outrageous long-term value. When St. Louis won the game, and we cashed a super juicy payout ticket, we got to realize all of that value.

The books didn’t learn their lesson from yesterday, as the Boys in Blue are even bigger favorites today than they were yesterday. Carlos Martinez hasn’t been overly consistent for St. Louis, but in his last 6 starts, he has allowed 2 earned runs or less, 4 times. I don’t love betting against Walker Buehler as the guy is great, but I didn’t love betting against David Price yesterday either, but I still did it as it was the right play. And surprisingly enough, despite Buehler’s strong production, the Dodgers have lost 4 of his last 7 starts. This is another high-risk, high-reward, play but we saw yesterday that when these bets do come in, they offer super juicy payouts. Give me the Cardinals, as this is a laughably overpriced line.

Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners (+135)

We backed the Seattle Mariners yesterday as home underdogs, as they had won 8 of their previous 9 games. Things were looking great as Seattle jumped out to a 4-0 lead early in the game, and Mariner’s starter Marco Gonzalez was sharp after missing more than a month’s worth of action with an injury. The Seattle bullpen has been surprisingly strong this year, but yesterday wasn’t their day, as the A’s smashed them for 11 runs and ended up blowing the game out late. Seattle will start Chris Flexen, who has been almost unbelievably good at home this year for the Mariners. At home, Flexen has posted a 1.63 ERA in 5 starts. On the year, Seattle has a 7-2 record when Flexen gets the nod, and he has been particularly great at home in his last 2 starts, working a combined 12.2 innings and allowing just a single earned run.

Sean Manaea has been great at home as well, but unfortunately for A’s fans, the A’s are on the road today, where Manaea has an ERA of 5 runs in 4 starts. Oakland hasn’t won a road game with Manaea on the mound since April, and I like what is going on with this Mariner’s team right now. They are finally getting healthy, and they have been playing good baseball in the last couple of weeks. No team has more wins as underdogs than the Mariners, as Seattle has won 22 times when getting juice so far this season. I like Seattle to get over yesterday’s disappointment and knock off the A’s at home.

Get Rich Or Die Trying Parlay

  • Teams Odds
  • Atlanta Braves -157
  • St. Louis Cardinals +200
  • Seattle Mariners +135

$100 Bet Pays $1,155

Wrap Up

Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on Major League baseball can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s Major League Baseball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free MLB picks each and every day!

https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/major-league-baseball-parlay-of-the-day-6-2-21/

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