LSU vs. Mississippi Week 8 Picks: Do the Tigers Come to Play?

News of LSU coach Ed Orgeron’s impending departure puts football bettors in a sticky situation. Will LSU play hard for its lame-duck coach or will enough players start looking forward to the transfer portal, sucking the life out of the Tigers?

LSU is 4-3 straight up and on the Over (3-4 against the spread) this season. Prior to their upset of Florida last week, the Tigers owned one of the worst rushing offenses in the country and one of the weaker run-stopping units in college football.

Mississippi’s clutch victory at Tennessee keeps them in the hunt in the SEC West, thanks to a 6-1 SU record (4-2 ATS). The Rebels average 43.7 points a game and are 4-2 Over.

Here are my picks and predictions for the college football Week 8 SEC matchup between the Tigers and the Rebels (Odds via Circa Sports).

LSU vs. Mississippi Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, October 23, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS
Weather: Low 70s and Sunny

LSU vs. Mississippi Odds Analysis

Mississippi opened as a -10.5-point home favorite. Then, on Monday came the news from Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin that star quarterback Matt Corral was "beat up" from the Tennessee tilt and "not in great shape," casting a shadow on his availability for this Saturday. The line almost immediately went down to -9 or -9.5.

However, the total has stayed virtually the same at 76 or 76.5 and that certainly would tumble if Corral is ruled out. It seems like sportsbooks are taking a wait-and-see approach.

LSU vs. Mississippi Betting Picks

Mississippi -9 (-110)
Under 76 (-110)

SEE ALSO: Northwestern vs. Michigan Week 8 Picks

LSU vs. Mississippi Betting Predictions

Mississippi -9 (-110)

The Corral situation is a fluid one and would alter every dynamic of this contest. For now, we go with what we know and that the junior quarterback is playing.

Mississippi plays at a frenetic pace and averages 80 plays a game. The Rebels just ran 101 plays against Tennessee. That is taxing on the opposing team's defense.

While LSU players probably expected Orgeron to be let go at some point, I think the key rallying point for their coach came last week and should be expected again in the team's last home game. However, Saturday's game is an away game. The Rebels' relentless style just takes a toll and will force Tigers players to suck it up to compete.

Let's also not lose sight of the fact LSU upset Florida 49-42 last Saturday, yet only won by a touchdown despite a +4 turnover margin.

The Tigers will move the ball against a Rebels defense that allows 30.2 points per game and 338 yards a game. Yet, if Kiffin's club has an average game on defense and scores its average on offense (43.7 PPG), Ole Miss covers.

Under 76 (-110)

Going to use the same logic for the total, that both teams are right around their season norms.

Each team will score because both defenses have holes. As noted earlier, Mississippi gives up more than 30 PPG, while LSU's offense comes in at 32.4 PPG. This gives us a figure in the low 60s for a total score.

Next, we follow the digits and have the Rebels at 43.7 PPG on offense, with the Tigers giving up 28.4 PPG, which leads us into the low 70s.

My power rankings show Corral and crew should be right around their average and LSU should be close to their typical figures, producing a final score in the 70-to-73-point range for an Under.

The clincher to this thought process is this: Play Under on teams like Mississippi with a completion percentage of 62% or better, after allowing eight or more passing yards per attempt in three straight games. The Under is 54-17 in that exact spot.

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