Last Chance Value Picks for Betting Ohio State vs. Clemson

New Year’s Day is a college football bonanza and the four-game bowl slate is capped by No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Clemson the Sugar Bowl College Football Playoff semifinal game. Here are some last-minute betting recommendations via SBR’s top-rated sportsbooks. 

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Clemson Tigers 

Friday, January 1, 2021 – 08:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Superdome

One problem with the College Football Playoff, which debuted in the 2014 season, is that for the most part, the semifinal games haven’t had much drama. Are you aware that eight of the previous 12 semifinal games have been decided by at least 17 points and that the average margin of victory in the 18 combined CFP games, championship games included, has been about 19 points? 

Oddsmakers clearly don’t expect the first semifinal game Friday between No. 1 Alabama and No. 4 Notre Dame to be close as the Tide are whopping 20-point favorites at the top-rated sportsbooks – that’s easily the biggest spread in CFP history. Here, the No. 2 Tigers are 7.5-point favorites over the No. 3 Buckeyes. 

Seeing Ohio State getting at least +7.5 on the NCAAF odds is strange. It hasn’t happened since New Year’s Day 2015 when the Buckeyes were the No. 4 seed in the first CFP semifinals. Ohio State was exactly 7.5-point dogs when they upset No. 1 Alabama 42-35 on the way to OSU’s last national title.  

One Last Lawrence vs. Fields Showdown 

In last season’s Fiesta Bowl CFP semifinal, Clemson was ranked third and Ohio State second, but the Tigers were 2.5-point favorites at the best betting sites and won 29-23 before losing to LSU in the national title game – which also happened to take place at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. 

If Friday’s game is anything like that previous Tigers-Buckeyes matchup, we are in for a treat. OSU jumped out to a 16-0 lead, but the momentum changed when Trevor Lawrence had a stunning 67-yard touchdown run late in the first half to make it 16-14. Lawrence hit Travis Etienne on the winning 34-yard TD pass with 1:49 left. Justin Fields did drive the Buckeyes back down the field, but he was intercepted in the end zone in the final seconds. Buckeyes wideout Chris Olave took the blame for that “mistake.” It was OSU's first loss under coach Ryan Day, and it remains the only one.  

“It was a one-on-one with me on the safety, and I was supposed to run the post,” Olave said afterward. “But when I looked back, I thought he scrambled, so I tried to work the second part of my route. He ended up throwing it, and that's how the game ended.”

Olave is one of Ohio State’s top receivers this season with 36 catches for 528 yards and five scores. He was one of a handful of Buckeyes sidelined due to COVID-19 protocols in the Buckeyes’ 22-10 win over Northwestern in the Big Ten title game, but he will play in this one. I don’t read too much into Fields’ lousy performance vs. the Wildcats – he was 12-for-27 for just 114 yards and two picks – because he was without Olave and dealing with a sprained thumb.  

This will be the last collegiate game for either Fields or Lawrence – if you want a lock bet, take Lawrence at -5000 with BetOnline to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The Jaguars are absolutely taking him. Fields may no longer go No. 2 overall to the Jets as many are now projecting BYU QB Zach Wilson there because Fields hasn’t been near as good this year as last. 

INTERCEPTED! What a finish! #CFBPlayoff pic.twitter.com/7u8sU3d2IA

— ESPN (@espn) December 29, 2019

Sugar Bowl Props 

The favored first touchdown scorer Friday at SBR’s top-rated books is Etienne, who may go down as the best running back in ACC history (he’ll be a 2021 first-round pick). He’s priced +460 to be the first TD scorer and -370 to score at any time. To score at least two TDs, he’s +160. 

Ohio State’s Trey Sermon, who had been good but not great this season before crushing Northwestern with a school-record of 331 yards rushing, is +850 to be the first TD scorer, -140 to be an anytime scorer, and +420 for at least two TDs. I’ll take a shot on Sermon as the first TD scorer at that price, as Clemson starts two freshmen on its defensive line, and each of the Buckeyes' starting five weighs 310 pounds or more, leading the Big Ten's No. 1 rushing attack. 

The Buckeyes are +4.5 on the first-half spread, and I like that because Clemson may start slowly with the news that offensive play-caller and coordinator Tony Elliott will not be at the game due to COVID-19 protocols.  

Lawrence is listed at over/under 334.3 passing yards, and I’d go under that big number. He doesn’t have near the receiving talent he did a year ago, so I’d expect more of Etienne – take over 121.5 rushing and receiving yards for him.  

OSU allows 261.3 yards passing per game and has one of the nation’s top cornerbacks in All-American Shaun Wade. The Big Ten’s Defensive Back of the Year had two picks this season (one returned for a TD) and three pass breakups. Wade could shut down the Tigers' top wideout Amari Rodgers (69 catches, 966 yards, seven TDs). Rodgers is given an over/under of 94.5 receiving yards, and with my college football picks, I’m going under.  

Sugar Bowl Picks: 

First Half Buckeyes +4.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Trey Sermon first TD scorer (+650) at BetOnline

Trevor Lawrence Under 341 Passing Yds. (-114) at BetOnline

Amari Rodgers Under 93.5 Receiving Yds. (-114) at BetOnline

Travis Etienne Over 121.5 Rush and Receiving Yds. (-110) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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