Lakers vs. Kings: NBA Picks and Predictions

The reeling Sacramento Kings look to bounce back from a tough home loss when they host the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday night. Here’s a complete preview, including updated odds and NBA picks.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Sacramento Kings

Wednesday, March 03, 2021 – 10:00 PM EST at Golden 1 Center

The Kings opened as 3.5-point favorites and over at FiveThirtyEight, they have them at +1.5 at press time (they haven't considered that LeBron James will miss this game). This leaves a 4.5-point gap between the projections and the actual NBA odds. We need at least two points between the projections and the lines before we lay any serious wood. Here we are getting enough but you can trust the Lakers with AD, LeBron and possibly Kuzma and Caruso? FiveThirtyEight gives the Lakers a 56 percent chance to win. The equivalent moneyline is -127.

For support, we turn to USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin’s projections; he has the Lakers at -8.50 using his Rating numbers, and at -7.31 using his eigenvector analysis. That leaves plenty of room to grab potential betting value with the Kings at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).

LeBron is Out for the Lakers

It's hard to see teams led by LeBron James losing four straight games often. The Lakers had dropped their last three but they responded with impressive home wins against the Trail Blazers and Warriors. Dennis Schroder's return helped, especially with AD out and he played a big role in these two victories, averaging 17.0 points, 4.0 assists and 3.0 rebounds. The Lakers followed that up with a 114-104 home loss against the Suns on Wednesday, despite 38 points, six assists and five rebounds from LeBron James (plus-5.9 Offensive Box Plus/Minus), who will miss this game with a left ankle sprain suffered earlier in the season.

LeBron did not accompany the Lakers on their flight to Sacramento and according to the team, h will receive treatment while he is in Los Angeles. The Lakers desperately need the All-Star break to rest and regroup, as Anthony Davis (plus-4.3 Offensive Box Plus/Minus, plus-2.1 Defensive Box Plus/Minus) will likely be out at least another three weeks and Marc Gasol, Kyle Kuzma and Alex Caruso could all miss this game as well. Dennis Schroder had 17 points and six assists against the Suns and the Lakers need him to go off against the Kings if they want to be competitive on Wednesday. They also need a big game from Montrezl Harrell, who finished with just six points and two rebounds in 19 minutes against the Suns.

Kings Suffer Devastating Loss Against Hornets

The Kings ended nine-game losing streak with a 110-107 road win against the Pistons last Friday and they were about to beat the Hornets at home on Sunday but they blew an eight-point lead with 34 seconds left and eventually lost the game 127-126 on a Malik Monk and-one with 1.4 seconds remaining. Not having Hassan Whiteside and Jabari Parker has affected them but the setback against the Hornets is inexcusable.

This team has a good roster and they are better than what their 13-21 record suggests but they just can't seem to find themselves. The Kings have lost some tough games but this setback against the Hornets could be their most painful. Can they put it behind in time to host the Lakers, who are also desperate for wins? Six players (all in double-figures) provided the 126 points against the Hornets, which is not ideal. Getting other players involved is a must if they want to keep up with the Lakers.

Prediction

The Lakers are the better team, even with AD out but they're playing the second game of a back-to-back after hosting the Suns on Tuesday in a very tough game and as mentioned before, LeBron James will not play on Wednesday. You can't overlook this young, talented Kings team that will be more rested.

Also keep in mind that rookie Tyrese Haliburton (plus-3.2 Offensive Box Plus/Minus) didn't play against the Hornets because of a calf injury. Haliburton is day-to-day so monitor his status for Wednesday because he can be a difference-maker on offense. As always, we suggest you wait as long as possible to find out who's playing before placing your bets. I like the Kings to win straight up. De'Aaron Fox, Harrison Barnes, Buddy Hield and Marvin Bagley III can do enough to beat this depleted Lakers squad.

My Pick: Kings -175 at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Kings-175

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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

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