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John R Wooden Award Betting Guide

February 14, 2021
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The NCAA recently released their late-season John R Wooden Award watch list. After starting the year with fifty players on the radar for the most prestigious award in college hoops, they have now cut the list down to the top twenty. The books have seen this new list and have updated their odds accordingly. In this article, we are going to take a look at the favorites, the middle of the pack, and the longshots, and give you one player from each tier to bet on. Let’s get started!

The Favorites

Earlier this year, I put together a betting guide for the John R Wooden Award, highlighting the players that I thought would contend for the Heisman of college basketball this season. If you didn’t get a chance to check it out, it can be found here. But I will let you know, you are going to be kicking yourself for not taking my advice back then, as four of the five players I highlighted are now on this top twenty list, and the odds back in November were a lot better than they are now! Here are the top five favorites right now to take home the most prestigious individual honor in college basketball, the John R Wooden award.

  • Luka Garza – Iowa Hawkeyes (-2000)
  • Jared Butler – Baylor Bears (+500)
  • Ayo Dosunmu – Illinois Illini (+900)
  • Jalen Suggs – Gonzaga Bulldogs (+2000)
  • Drew Timme – Gonzaga Bulldogs (+2000)

Luka Garza – Iowa Hawkeyes (-2000)

Luka Garza has been the favorite to win this award ever since he decided to return to Iowa City for his senior season. When I highlighted Garza back in November, you could have gotten the Iowa big man at +400, now you are going to have to lay -2000 to back Garza. When you look at the stats for Garza, it is easy to understand why he is the overwhelming favorite.

Garza is averaging 25.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.6 blocks per game. He leads a Hawkeye team that is currently ranked 15th in the latest AP poll. While the books seem to think that Garza can’t lose, at least based on this ridiculous price they are offering right now, I am not so sure that Garza is as big of a favorite as most people think. There are two major reasons that Garza is slipping down my board late in the season.

First, Iowa has underperformed recently. It is hard to say that being the 15th best team in the nation is a bad season, but Iowa started the year out in the top five, and a month ago, they were sitting at 12-2 and very much looking like the national title threats we all thought they would be coming into the season. But Iowa has struggled recently, as they had a stretch where they lost four out of five games. You don’t need to be on the best team in the nation to win this award, but the committee almost always picks a player from a really good team. If the Hawkeyes can’t get it turned around, it is going to hurt Garza’s chances.

The other reason I am skeptical about Garza, it his play has taken a dip recently as well, particularly on the defensive side of the floor. Garza just doesn’t have the lateral movement to guard some of the best players in the Big 10. He has been a liability on defense, and teams have taken advantage of it.

As balanced as Iowa appears to be on the surface, if Garza doesn’t play well, they can’t win. In their last three losses, Garza has averaged just 17 points and 4 rebounds per game. Garza is still deservingly the favorite, but if he keeps playing poorly and the Hawkeyes keep losing, he will quickly drop down this list. Stay away from Luka at this price as we can find more value further down the board.

Jared Butler – Baylor Bears (+500)

Jared Butler has emerged as a do-everything leader at guard for the Baylor Bears. Butler has improved his scoring, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals from a year ago, and he seems to be a near-lock to be a first-team All-American. Butler has really stepped up his game on defense, as he can lock down just about anybody on the perimeter.

The big issue for Butler right now is that the Bears keep seeing their season delayed due to COVID-19 issues. While the rest of these guys are racking up stats and helping their team win, Butler and his Bears are sitting on the sidelines waiting to get back on the floor. Baylor hasn’t played since February 2nd, and they won’t play for another week. That is going to hurt his case for player of the year for sure, even if it is at no fault of his own.

The other thing that is a bit of a blemish for Butler, is that he has no-showed a couple of big games for Baylor. Against Oklahoma, he had only 8 points on 0-4 shooting from the field, and against Texas Tech, he had just 7 points and 7 turnovers. The Bears still managed to win those games, but with all of these guys being so good, and little to separate them, inconsistent results like that could be enough to keep the Wooden Award out of reach for Butler.

Ayo Dosunmu – Illinois Illini (+900)

Ayo Dosunmu has been an absolute monster for the Fighting Illini in the second half of conference play. After starting out 5-3 in Big 10 play, the Illini have won five straight conference games, and Dosunmu deserves a lot of the credit for leading that charge. Last night, Dosunmu helped Illinois recover from a slow start on the road and led his team with 31 points in the come from behind win at Nebraska, in a game that the Illini could not afford to lose. He hit an absolute dagger of a three-pointer in overtime to seal the deal for the Illini.

In the game before that, Dosunmu had his first-ever triple-double against a very good Wisconsin team, going for 21 points, 12 boards, and 12 dimes. Dosunmu fills up the stat sheet with averages of 21.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 5.1 assists a game. He has scored 30 or more points in a game four times this season.

Illinois has used this late-season charge to pull into 2nd place in the Big 10, trailing only Michigan, who hasn’t played in weeks. If the Illini can take the Big 10 regular-season title, and Dosunmu continues to be unstoppable, I think he could absolutely catch Garza for not only player of the year in the Big 10, but also for national player of the year as well.

Jalen Suggs/Drew Timme – Gonzaga Bulldogs (+2000)

I am bunching these last two guys together as they both play for the nation’s top team, the Gonzaga Bulldogs, and they both offer the exact same odds. When I wrote this up in November, Timme was a guy that I mentioned was going to surprise everybody, and I suggested you back him back then, at get this, 300-1 odds! Those odds have now dropped down to just 20-1, and Timme has been just as good as I knew he was going to be.

Timme has excellent footwork and can stretch the floor and shoot the ball from the perimeter. The Zags just have too many guys to guard, and Timme can devastate teams if they don’t key in on him on defense. Timme is one of the most efficient players in the country, as he shoots a blistering hot 62.5% from the field.

Really, the only thing I can say bad about this guy, is that the Zags are so good that they don’t always need him to play a major role every night. Timme is happy to do whatever his team needs him to do to win basketball games, even if that sometimes means sacrificing his own stats.

This is a very unselfish team in Spokane, and every player knows how they fit into the bigger picture. That has led the Zags to the number one ranking in the nation, as they haven’t lost a game, but it does somewhat hurt these individual player’s chances at winning an award like this one. That leads me to the other Gonzaga Bulldogs in the top five, freshman sensation Jalen Suggs.

Suggs came into this season as the highest-rated recruit in the history of the Gonzaga program. So, the hype was high on Suggs. And even with the heavy expectations of being the best freshman in team history weighing on him, Jalen Suggs has completely obliterated all of those expectations. Suggs is a man amongst boys at just 19 years old, and on a Gonzaga team that could have as many as four first rounders on the roster, there is no player more talented for Gonzaga than Jalen Suggs.

Similar to Timme, there are times where the Zags don’t need Suggs to go out and have a crazy game, as this team is so balanced. That has been especially true in conference play, where Gonzaga has blown out many of their games. That has limited Suggs playing time and has kept his stats from being one of the best in the country. If this award were going to which player looks like the best potential NBA prospect, I am taking Jalen Suggs, and if Mark Few needed him to be a guy like Ayo Dosunmu or Jared Butler, that does it all, he would absolutely be up to the task.

The Bet

No disrespect to Jalen Suggs or Drew Timme, but they are likely going to split the vote in Spokane. It is hard to say a player is the best in the nation when you don’t even know if they are the best player on their own team. You can even make a case that Corey Kispert is more important to the Zags than both Suggs and Timme, and the wealth of talent on the Zags as a whole is going to all but eliminate each induvial in this race. Butler gets a raw deal as he missed a key chunk of the season and let some of these other guys pass him by, while he sat on the couch. That leaves me with the two studs from the Big 10, Ayo Dosunmu and Luka Garza.

If the season ended today, I am taking Garza. But it doesn’t. With Garza running out of gas and the Hawkeyes struggling, I see Illinois backdooring the Big 10 regular season title with a strong finish and Dosunmu leapfrogging Garza on this list. It is going to take a near-perfect end to the season for both of these guys for Dosunmu to move up, but when you look at the odds on both guys, backing Dosunmu is the play.

The Middle Of The Pack

  • Sharife Cooper – Auburn Tigers (+4000)
  • Agbaji Ochai – Kansas Jayhawks (+5000)
  • Cade Cunningham – Oklahoma State Cowboys (+5000)
  • Hunter Dickinson – Michigan Wolverines (+5000)
  • Collin Gillespie – Villanova Wildcats (+5000)
  • Isaiah Livers – Michigan Wolverines (+5000)
  • Jerimiah Robinson-Earl – Villanova Wildcats (+5000)

This next group of guys are the guys that have had really strong years but are a step behind the top players. Each of these guys would need a lot of things to go their way and to play out of their minds good to move up so far, this late in the year, but we have seen late-season surges before, so it could happen. And when you look at the odds on these guys, they are offering significant value.

The Freshman

Freshman very rarely win this award. Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, that is the entire list of freshman that have ever won this award. Each of those guys were transcendent athletes that will go down as some of the top freshmen ever. No disrespect to Sharife Cooper, Hunter Dickinson, or Cade Cunningham, these dudes are studs, but they aren’t Zion, Durant, or The Brow. I’ll pass on backing any of these guys at this price, but don’t be shocked when they all get taken in the lottery of next year’s NBA draft.

The Villanova Guys

Villanova is similar to Gonzaga in that they have multiple players that are in consideration for the Wooden Award. But just like Gonzaga, it’s going to be really hard to separate these guys from each other. Gillespie fits the mold of senior leader point guard perfectly, but I am going to be honest here, I have been a bit underwhelmed with his play this season. His scoring, rebounds, and steals are down, and while he has been a great facilitator, his stock has dropped, in my opinion, from when I wrote him up in November as a player to watch.

As far Robinson-Earl, he is the best player on the Wildcats roster, but Villanova just hasn’t gotten to play much. I know if feels harsh to punish these players for getting their games canceled, but Villanova has only played six times since December. ‘Nova is trying to play catch up with a bunch of games late in the season, but I don’t see how either of these guys can do enough in a down Big East to standout by the end of the regular season.

The Michigan Guys

I feel like writing up Hunter Dickinson and Isaiah Livers could basically be a carbon copy of what I just said about Villanova’s guys. Michigan isn’t playing, and I expect them to be rusty and struggle when they do finally get to take the floor again. Dickinson was stuck in a nasty three-game slump when the Wolverines got shut down, and while Liver has had a very nice season leading the upstart Wolverines when you put his stats alongside guys like Jalen Suggs, Jared Butler, and Ayo Dosunmu, he just isn’t on the same level. Add in the whole splitting the vote piece of this equation, and I am out on the Wolverines.

Ochai Agbaji – Kansas Jayhawks (+5000)

I have eliminated most of these guys in the second tier of players, and while none of these guys in this second tier have a great shot at winning the award, I do think that Agbaji Ochai of Kansas is worth a flyer at these juicy odds. It is easy to hate on Kansas, and people are quick to lump the Jayhawk’s struggles in with fellow blue bloods like Duke, Kentucky, and Michigan State that are playing poorly this year. But that’s not really fair to Kansas.

Yeah, they have seven losses, but all of them came to good teams that are going to be playing in the NCAA tournament. And when you look at the teams they have beaten, teams like Creighton, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State, it shows you that the Jayhawks could still have a deep run in March in them. Ochai has been the best player for what I see as a criminally underrated Kansas team. So, yeah, they couldn’t beat Gonzaga or Baylor, neither can anybody else, so quit punishing the Jayhawks for playing a tough schedule.

Kansas finishes their season with games against Texas Tech, Texas, and Baylor. If the Jayhawks run the table and follow that up with a Big 12 tournament title, they are going to be right back in the conversation for a one seed, and with Agbaji leading the way, he is going to get a look here for the Wooden Award. That is a lot of what-ifs, but this Kansas team is capable of getting it done, and at 50-1, it’s worth a gamble.

The Longshots

  • Kofi Cockburn – Illinois Illini (+6000)
  • Matt Coleman III – Texas Longhorns (+6000)
  • Andrew Jones – Texas Longhorns (+6000)
  • Marcus Zegarowski – Creighton Blue Jays (+6000)
  • D’Mitrik Trice– Wisconsin Badgers (+7000)

In this final section, we are going to take a look at the long shots, that are worthy of consideration. Shaka Smart has the best team he has ever had in Austin, but Coleman III and Jones cancel each other out, so they are out of the mix. Cockburn is a monster in the paint, but Dosunmu is the guy driving most of the success at Illinois, so Cockburn is out too. So, what about Marcus Zegarowski and D’Mitrik Trice?

Trice was on my radar until the Badgers recently started to lose games. Wisconsin is just 3-3 in their last six games, and Trice hasn’t played well. Trice has scored single-digit points in three of the Badger’s last four games, including an embarrassing zero-point effort in 34 minutes against Penn State. Trice is out.

Marcus Zegarowski is probably the best player in the country that nobody is talking about right now. Creighton hasn’t been getting a lot of national media attention, but the Blue Jays are really good, and they are finishing strong with wins in five out of their last six games. Creighton plays Villanova twice before the regular season is over, and if the Blue Jays can upset the Wildcats and steal the Big East conference title, and Zegarowski plays up to his potential, we are going to be hearing a lot about this kid from Massachusetts with the hard to pronounce name. It’s a lottery ticket, but at 60-1 odds, it pays out like one, so it’s worth a shot.

Wrap Up

The books think that the Wooden Award race is over, but I am here to tell you that it’s not! This feels like a three-horse race between Luke Garza, Ayo Dosunmu, and Jared Butler, and while Garza is in the lead as we make the final turn of the regular season, he can be caught. Thanks for reading, and make sure that you check out TheSportsGeek’s college hoops betting page, where we bring you free daily betting picks each and every day!

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