Jazz vs. Clippers: NBA Playoffs Game 4 Preview and Pick

The Clippers got their much-needed Game 3 victory in an easy fashion on Saturday and now the bookmakers have them as -5 favorites against the Jazz in Game 4.

Utah Jazz vs. LA Clippers

Monday, June 14, 2021 – 10:00 PM EDT at Staples Center

Clippers Figuring Out Jazz Defense

We usually think of the Utah defense as one of the more formidable units in all of basketball and that isn’t wrong. Utah ranked third-best in the NBA in defensive rating (DRtg) during the regular season, but since then things have been slipping a little. Utah has the lowest playoff DRtg among teams still playing this postseason and a couple of key things have led to their demise.

Second-chance points and points in the paint have hurt the Jazz in these playoffs and the Clippers have begun to exploit it over their last two games. It didn’t get them the win in Game 2 but the Clippers also got hot behind the arc in Game 3 at home and cruised to victory. The Clippers had 44 paint points in Game 3 and so far this postseason, that’s been only slightly better than average for the Jazz defensively. Utah is allowing 51 paint points per game this postseason and the only team worse than them is the Wizards who have been long gone from the playoffs.

Similarly, the Jazz are giving up a ton of second chance points, an area that excelled in during the regular season. They were just outside the top 10 in their opponent’s second chance points, but in the playoffs, Utah is allowing three more second chance points per game. Part of this can be chalked up to the level of competition being increased. Playing the Grizzlies and Clippers a combined eight games is much harder than the 72-game season schedule.

However, I could also make the argument that with more rest and practice time in the playoffs, they should be better in areas where they were strong in the regular season.

The Sharp Pick

It is for these reasons and others why I think the Clippers have some value here for our NBA picks, especially in the first half. However, with the Utah defense playing so poorly and with the game still coming from Staples Center, the first half over is the play here for this one.

Los Angeles is averaging 121 points per 100 possessions this postseason and in the first half that goes up to 127.1. They have done this against two teams that have better than average defenses too, which makes this more impressive.

If Utah falls behind early, they will be forced to increase their pace to try and keep up with this Clippers offense and with the way the last two first halves have gone, I expect offense early, with defense coming later in the game.

Combined with the Clippers ability to go small when needed, I’m banking on both clubs scoring at will in the first half.

NBA Pick: OVER 109.5 First Half at (-110) with BookMaker (visit our BookMaker Review)

OVER 109.5 First Half (-110)

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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

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