David K Purdy/Getty Images. Pictured: Iowa State Cyclones guard Tre Jackson.
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma Odds
It’s been a disappointing year in Ames for the 2-10 Cyclones, whose only two victories came against SWAC teams. The opposite has been true for the Sooners, who defeated four top-10 teams in the month of January — the first team in over 40 years to accomplish that feat.
That said, I’m actually looking to back Iowa State here if the number is right. The ‘Clones have at least shown some fight during conference play. They lost by a combined 11 points on the road at Texas and at West Virginia. They also hung with Baylor in an 11-point home loss and — most recently — came up just short at home against West Virginia.
Ultimately, I don’t think Iowa State is as bad as some of the metrics suggest. It had to deal with a two-week COVID-19 pause in the middle of January; then it played without several starters over the past few weeks due to lingering COVID-19 protocols.
However, the Cyclones recently got back Tre Jackson, Solomon Young and Jalen Coleman-Lands — each of whom played in that 4-point loss to the Mountaineers. And based on head coach Steve Prohm’s comments, it appears junior starting guard Javan Johnson will return to the lineup in Norman for the first time since Jan. 9. The team should finally be close to full strength.
I still have major questions about Oklahoma’s perimeter defense, which ranks in the 25th percentile against long jump shots, per Synergy. That could be good news for the Iowa State shooters who likely have some positive regression coming based on their historical averages. Furthermore, Oklahoma doesn’t have the size to fully exploit a smaller Cyclones squad.
This is also a potentially very sleepy spot for Oklahoma. The Sooners just finished up a stretch of four games against top-25 teams. Now, they have to get up for a noon tip against a winless Iowa State team that is still fighting hard for that elusive first conference win.
Pick: Iowa State +14 or better
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