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Handicapping MLB Player Statistic Props – AL West

March 30, 2021
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Spring training is winding down an Opening Day is less than a week away.

We still have some futures trickling in, however, and in part three of our six-part series highlighting our best individual player statistic props, we bring you the AL West.

Here are the props we’re most comfortable with betting for the 2021 season and have the utmost confidence we’ll end up on the profit side of the unit’s ledger when it’s all said and done.

*Odds courtesy of BetOnline

Houston Astros

Jose Altuve – Batting Average

  • Over .279 (-115)
  • Under .279 (-115)

A couple years ago, the over was a lock for Altuve as he enjoyed eight straight seasons over this total. Not only that, he enjoyed five consecutive seasons of hitting at least .313 from 2014-2018 before slipping to a measly .298 in 2019.

However, the 2020 campaign was concerning from multiple standpoints, the first being a .219 average that finished a cool 92 points below his career .311 mark. The second would be the the fact he missed notable game action for the third straight season following six straight years of excellent health. For the first time in his career, however, it appears his injuries finally took a toll on his production in by far a career-worst season for the now 30-year-old.

That said, his .250 BABIP finished 74 points below his .334 career mark and while his FanGraphs hard-hit rate dipped all the way to 30.7%, that number is still above his 28.3% career mark.

He’s not as fleet as foot as he once was which hurts his infield hit rate, but this total is low enough that I’ll look for a bounce back here in 2021.

Prediction: Over .279 (-115)

Lance McCullers Jr. – Wins

  • Over 11 (-115)
  • Under 11 (-115)

In his return from Tommy John surgery in 2020, McCullers spun a quality 3.93 ERA/3.70 FIP in his 11 starts and 55 innings, winning three of his 11 decisions on the season as the team was rather cautious with the right-hander as he eclipsed 100 pitches in just one of his 11 starts.

Watching starters last less than 100 pitches is nothing new these days, but it’s time for the ‘Stros to let their talented right-hander loose if they’re to get back into the postseason in 2021.

Framber Valdez’s season is in question, and with Justin Verlander already out for the season, the team might just have to lean heavier on McCullers — in a contract year, by the way — than once thought.

He’s the owner of a career 3.70 ERA/3.29 FIP with an even 10.00 K/9. His numbers and stuff are not in question. The problem is he’s never eclipsed 128.1 innings or 22 starts in a season.

He’s healthy and ready to go, so I’ll indeed look for him to get to at least a new career-high of 11 wins in 2021, but likely more.

Prediction: Over 11 wins (-115)

Yordan Alvarez – Home Runs

  • Over 33 (-115)
  • Under 33 (-115)

Alvarez slugged 27 home runs in just 87 games and 369 plate appearances en route to AL Rookie of the Year honors in 2019. Add in his 23 dingers from the Triple-A level that year and you have a 50-homer season for a player set to play the 2021 season at age 24.

However, those numbers are flat-out unsustainable. I mean, his Triple-A isolated power (ISO) was .399 before posting a .342 mark at the big-league level in 2019. In 2019, that ISO was good for third-best in baseball behind Mitch Garver (.357) and Mike Trout (.353) among players with at least 350 plate appearances. There was one player with an ISO above that mark in 2020 (among qualified hitters in the shortened season) and that was Juan Soto at .344.

Alvarez missed all but two games of that 2020 season with injuries to both knees. Are we to expect him to get into essentially his first MLB game action since the end of the 2019 season and immediately post ISO figures approaching .350? Maybe. however, he has one homer in 27 at-bats this spring and a .637 OPS to boot.

Spring stats are often useless, but if he was feeling it he’d have more than one homer and an OPS north of .637. He also benefited from a juiced ball in 2019, and that’s not likely to be the case again this time around, so I’ll take the Under here.

Prediction: Under 33 home runs (-115)

Ryan Pressly – Saves

  • Over 32.5 (+100)
  • Under 32.5 (-130)

Pressly was the Astros’ most important reliever last season as he was largely their only effective, healthy reliever for the duration of the season. He worked to a 3.42 ERA/2.81 FIP in his 23 appearances and 21 innings, racking up a healthy 12 saves in the process.

But man do I think the saves statistic is on life support.

While it’s safe to assume Pressly gets an extended look at the closer’s role, it’s not as if he’s without competition. The team signed a high-leverage arm in Pedro Baez in the offseason and fireballer Josh James has a closer-type arm as well.

There’s also a myriad of factors that go into even getting a save opportunity. That days’ starter needs to get a lead, the offense has to offer run support, the bullpen needs to bridge the gap and, for the most part, you need a 1-3 run lead before entering the game.

I do believe the Astros compete in the AL West, but Valdez’s loss hurts the rotation and who knows what Greinke can accomplish after an ERA north of 4.00 last season. He’ll pitch this season at age 37.

There’s just so much that needs to go right for a closer to get Over this total, so I’ve been going Under these numbers all along.

Prediction: Under 32.5 saves (-130)

Los Angeles Angels

Andrew Heaney – Strikeouts

  • Over 178.5 (-115)
  • Under 178.5 (-115)

Heaney has a history of big strikeouts numbers, but the bigger the sample size, the smaller the strikeout rate has been.

You can look at the minors numbers for yourself, but in terms of his big-league work, his career-high K-rate is 11.22 K/9 from the 2017 season in 21.2 innings. He pitched a career-high 180 innings the following season, notching a 9.00 K/9 clip.

While the trend is more prevalent in the minors, the problem with Heaney is is inability to stay on the mound. I’ve mentioned in previous editions of this series that I’m not going to be predicting any injuries, but Heaney has pitched in parts of 162-game big-league seasons (so we’re excluding 2020) and pitched more than 95.1 innings twice. His career-high read as: 180 in 2018, 105.2 in 2015 and 95.1 in 2019. It’s worth noting he worked a full starter’s workload with 12 starts and 66.2 innings in the truncated 2020 season, but you get the point.

If we take his career 8.92 K/9 clip (~ 1 strikeout per inning) and match it to his career-high of 180 innings, we’re right around this total. However, I’m on the Under on the innings, therefore I’m on the Under for the punchouts.

Prediction: Under 178.5 strikeouts (-115)

Shohei Ohtani – Batting Average

  • Over .259 (-115)
  • Under .259 (-115)

Here’s another prop that was seemingly a lock prior to the 2020 season as Ohtani logged a .285 average in his rookie 2018 season before besting that mark by a cool 1 point with a .286 mark in 2019. However, a .190 mark in the unique 2020 season has the oddsmakers dropping the numbers a significant margin below his previous bar.

Ohtani was dealt some brutal batted-ball luck last season, posting a .229 BABIP after going .350 and .354 in his first two seasons. Even you believe those first two seasons are a little high, .229 is very, very low. This coming from a guy that ranked in the league’s 71st percentile in barrel rate and 68th in hard-hit rate, as per Statcast. Not elite numbers, but certainly deserving of a batting average above .190.

Again, let’s not go crazy over spring numbers, but Ohtani himself went nuts at the plate this spring, hitting .571 with five homers and a 1.701 OPS in 28 at-bats.

Even though his focus will be split between hitting and pitching this season, I’d be surprised if he finished Under this total.

Prediction: Over .259 (-115)

Mike Trout – Batting Average

  • Over .293 (-115)
  • Under .293 (-115)

After four straight seasons over this total, Mike Trout has slipped under in back-to-back years, albeit not by much with averages of .291 and .281 in that time.

Ya, maybe the decline has set in. Ha! Good luck. Trout is still just 29 years old and his “career-worst” season in 2020 came along with a .281 average that was the worst mark of his career since his 40-game debut in the 2011 season.

It also came along with the second-lowest BABIP of his career (aside from the debut season) despite the following:

  • A 99th percentile ranking in average exit velocity
  • A 97th percentile ranking in hard-hit rate, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA
  • A 93rd percentile ranking in barrel rate

Let’s despite this no longer. Give me the Over.

Prediction: Over .293 (-115)

Jose Quintana – Wins

  • Over 8.5 (-115)
  • Under 8.5 (-115)

Quintana was able to make just one start and four appearances last season, totalling just 10 innings in 2020, albeit with a strong 2.99 FIP and 2.85 xFIP.

Honestly, over the course of his career, he’s been largely underrated by any fanbase outside of Chicago. The southpaw is the owner of a career 3.73 ERA/3.64 FIP while consistently commanding the zone with a career 2.54 BB/9 and keeping the ball in the yards at a nice 0.93 HR/9 clip.

He’s the latest addition to an Angels rotation that’s looked to get production out of names such as Matt Harvey, Julio Teheran and Alex Cobb over the last couple of offseasons as they look to piece together a rotation able to complement a high-powered offense.

He can do it. Quintana is going to be a big part of this rotation while he’s eclipsed this total in each of the last six seasons that featured 162 games. Up until the shortened 2020 season, he was remarkably durable, hitting 171 innings in each of his previous seven seasons and at least 200 innings in four of those seven campaigns.

He might not get to 170 innings after throwing just 10 all of last season, but I’ll hit the Over here with an extremely reliable rotation member throughout his big-league career.

Prediction: Over 8.5 wins (-115)

READ NOW: MLB Player Statistic Props Bets – AL East

Oakland A’s

Chris Bassitt – Wins

  • Over 10 (-115)
  • Under 10 (-115)

Few pitchers broke out in a bigger way than Bassitt did in 2020 as the veteran right-hander worked to a 2.29 ERA in 11 starts and 63 innings, going 5-2 in the process. However, just about every other metric suggested he was not nearly deserving of such stout bottom-line results.

Bassitt also worked to a 3.59 FIP and 4.49 xFIP. Not terrible, but the former a full run above his ERA and the latter nearly two. He also posted a 4.46 SIERA and allowed home runs on just 8.6% of the fly-balls he surrendered.

Additionally, he ranked in the league’s 25th percentile in whiff rate, 27th in fastball velocity, 23rd in fastball spin and 14th in curveball spin. Despite a 2.29 ERA, was in just the 63rd percentile in expected ERA, and right around league average in metrics such as average exit velocity, expected batting average against anf expected slugging percentage against.

Don’t get me wrong, he’s the owner of a career 3.59 ERA/4.07 FIP between the rotation and bullpen. He’s a big part of this A’s rotation heading towards 2021. However, it appears he wasn’t nearly as good as his 2.29 ERA suggested in a small 2020 sample, and he’s never eclipsed 10 wins in parts of six MLB seasons. Give me the Under.

Prediction: Under 10 wins (-115)

Mitch Moreland – Home runs

  • Over 21.5 (-115)
  • Under 21.5 (-115)

I believe pretty much every time in baseball could use a Mitch Moreland. He’s a left-handed power hitter who has mashed right-handed pitching throughout his career and has played real good defense at first base in the process.

However, I think more than 21.5 homers is a lot to ask.

For one, he’s no longer a first basement, but a DH. He’ll see some reps at first, but Matt Olson is projected for 37 homers and plays elite defense at first. Moreland isn’t going to be eating his lunch any time soon.

He’s certainly the primary DH, but won’t be against lefties. That duty will belong to Mark Canha. So, you’re looking at a DH against right-handers only with the odd start at first, maybe a few times a month.

Right then and there, I’m going Under. His power hasn’t wanted a she posted a monster .287 ISO last season and a .255 mark the season prior. The O.Co Coliseum in Oakland isn’t exactly a hitter-friendly venue, either.

I’m a big Moreland fan, but he has a career-high of 23 homers. He’s done so twice and hit 22 another couple times. However, he’s not going to be afforded the playing time to reach those totals again this time around.

Prediction: Under 21.5 home runs (-115)

Mike Fiers – Wins

  • Over 7.5 (-115)
  • Under 7.5 (-115)

Let’s do a little cheating here. A’s manager Bob Melvin confirmed on Friday that Mike Fiers would begin the season on the Injured List after suffering from some inflammation in his hip. The ailment doesn’t appear to be serious, but it will keep him out for at least the first 10 days of the regular season.

Sure, maybe he misses a couple turns in the rotation. The problem might be where he stands when he returns. The A’s have Bassitt, Sean Manaea and Jesus Luzardo expected to front the rotation and and despite Frankie Montas also an IR candidate come Opening Day with a torn cuticle in his right middle finger, Fiers is the team’s fifth starter when all five men are healthy.

There aren’t a lot of No. 5 starters that win eight games. Especially not in today’s game where pitchers are on shorter leashes than ever, especially after a shortened 60-game season where innings will be managed like never before.

Before the shortened 2020 season, Fiers averaged 11.5 wins per year over last four while eclipsing this total in all of those campaigns. I just don’t see it happening again this time around.

Prediction: Under 7.5 wins (-115)

Ramon Laureano – Home Runs

  • Over 22 (-115)
  • Under 22 (-115)

Laureano has been on a steady upward trajectory since entering the bigs in the 2018 season. Not only has been well above average at the plate in that time, he’s a flat-out elite defender who is the A’s only option at the position, when healthy.

According to FanGraphs’ projections, Laureano is set to receive 644 of a possible 700 plate appearances at the center-field position this season, otherwise known as 92% even. Only Matt Chapman is expected to see more plate appearances than Laureano this season.

Laureano already as a 24-homer season under his belt, and that came in 481 plate appearances in 2019, a good 163 shy of his projected 2021 total. It came in the juiced-ball year, and his homer pace slowed last season. However, this guy displayed notable power in the minors and still owns a .204 ISO at the big-league level. Additionally, he’s just 26 years old.

Given the mass amount of playing time and the power he’s already out on display, I can see a 25-homer season for Laureano to be sure.

Prediction: Over 22 home runs (-115)

Seattle Mariners

Kyle Lewis – Home runs

  • Over 23.5 (-115)
  • Under 23.5 (-115)

Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis pretty much came out of nowhere to win the award in 2020. Lewis smacked 11 homers in just 58 games, and when adding in the six from his big-league debut in 2019, Lewis has 17 MLB home runs across just 317 trips to the plate.

When factoring in Steamer’s 650 plate-appearance projection for 2021, Lewis would seemingly be on pace for 35 long balls this season. There’s just a couple of problems.

First, it looks like he could be Injured-List bound to open the season after he banged his knee into the outfield wall on Monday. He’s already missed a week’s worth of spring-training action, and the jury is out on how much time he’ll miss moving forward, but it doesn’t look good.

Second, Lewis didn’t hit for a ton of power in the minors. His only ISO north of .184 in the minors was a 30-game Low-A sample when he posted a .231 mark with three homers in 30 games. His .175 mark last season was solid, but unspectacular.

Given the injury and the non-existent minor-league history of big-time power, I’m going Under this total.

Prediction: Under 23.5 home runs (-115)

James Paxton – Wins

  • Over 8.5 (-115)
  • Under 8.5 (-115)

After yet another injury-plagued 2020 season, Paxton is back with the Mariners, the organization in which he grew up before playing in the Bronx for the last couple of seasons.

When on the mound, he’s very good as he’s the proud owner of a 3.58 ERA/3.31 FIP for his career across 136 starts. However, Paxton threw just 20.1 innings last season and considering his career-high is just 160.1, it’s fair to wonder just how many innings he can log in 2021 given the lengthy injury history.

With the rebuilding Rangers within the AL West, the Mariners probably won’t be the worst team in the division, but it’s also fair to say they’re behind the Astros, A’s and Angels as well. With the East looking awfully deep and even the Central improved, the Mariners appear to be a bottom-four team in the AL heading towards 2021.

With a likely lack of innings, a weak team and a bullpen that doesn’t appear improved at all following a disastrous 2020 season from that group, I don’t see enough opportunity for Paxton to get at least nine victories in 2021.

Prediction: Under 8.5 wins (-115)

Mitch Haniger – Home runs

  • Over 22.5 (-115)
  • Under 22.5 (-115)

Injuries have decimated Haniger’s last two seasons as he appeared in j ust 63 games in 2019 before missing all of the 2020 season. However, he’s healthy entering 2021 and has looked awfully good in the spring, hitting three homers with an .872 OPS across 44 at-bats.

Haniger has just 350 big-league games under his belt, but the power has been there in spades. He homered 16 times across 410 trips to the plate in 2017 before socking 26 dingers the following season, posting ISO marks of .209 and .208, respectfully. He followed that up with 15 homers and a .244 ISO in just 283 trips to the plate before rupturing a testicle in the 2019 campaign.

Over his last three seasons, Haniger has homered 57 times in 1,376 plate appearances. Using Steamer’s 586 plate-appearance projection for 2021, that pace equates to 24 homers here in 2021.

Unlike Lewis, Haniger had a minor-league history of hitting home runs with big-time ISO numbers. He’ll of course need to stay healthy, but this is a very reachable total for the now 30-year-old slugger.

Prediction: Over 22.5 home runs (-115)

Evan White – Home runs

  • Over 22.5 (-115)
  • Under 22.5 (-115)

White’s elite defense came as advertised in his 2020 rookie season straight out of Double-A, but his bat was mostly miserable as he slashed just .176/.252/.346 with a 66 wRC+ across 54 games.

That said, White did homer eight times with a solid .170 ISO to boot across 202 trips to the plate. White is the undisputed everyday starter at first base given the defense he provides, but also he produced quality numbers at the plate in a brief minor-league career than spanned just three seasons.

Using Steamer’s 576 plate-appearance projection, White’s eight homers from last year would represent 22 this season. The guy struck out in a whopping 41.6% of his plate appearances last season, and that’s not going to happen again. At Double-A in 2019, his K-rate was just 23% while he was under 20% in the A-ball levels.

Considering the mass amount of plate appearances he should get back with a sure positive regression in that strikeout rate, he’ll have an increased opportunity to play long ball. Along with more experience and a clean slate at the plate in 2021, I’m going Over a total he nearly would have accomplished despite a miserable rookie season at the dish in 2020.

Prediction: Over 22.5 home runs (-115)

Texas Rangers

Kyle Gibson – Wins

  • Over 9 (-115)
  • Under 9 (-115)

Gibson’s first season in Texas couldn’t have gone much worse as he worked to a 5.35 ERA/5.39 FIP in 12 starts and 67.1 innings, winning just two of his eight decisions on the season.

He had a couple nice seasons with the Twins prior, but his ERA has been 4.84 or above in three of his last four seasons and his 4.57 ERA/4.36 FIP for his career is mediocre at best.

Now, despite the middling results, Gibson has won at least 10 games in five of his six full, 162-game seasons. He’s been durable and has largely avoided injuries in his career, so there’s no reason to doubt his ability to take the ball every fifth day this season as FanGraphs projects him for about 170 frames in 2021.

However, it’s going to be a long season in Texas, the rebuilding Rangers are already going to be without key bullpen arms to begin the season while it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that group finish in or near the league’s basement this season. The offense doesn’t inspire much, either, and while there are some new faces aboard, the Rangers’ .283 wOBA from last season was the second-worst mark in the bigs next to only the MLB-worst Pittsburgh Pirates.

There won’t be much run support, the bullpen should struggle and Gibson doesn’t exactly have an ace pedigree. Getting over this total is going to be a tall task.

Prediction: Under 9 wins (-115)

Rougned Odor – Home runs

  • Over 22.5 (-115)
  • Under 22.5 (-115)

Hard to believe Odor is still just 27 years old as he’s seemingly been around forever. While he’s a career .237 hitter, he’s showed big power in the past, hitting at least 30 homers in three of his last four full seasons and was well on his way to doing so again in the shortened 2020 campaign with 10 dingers in just 38 games.

I noted that .237 career average because he’s actually been .205 or worse in each of the last two seasons, falling all the way to .167 last season and he owns a precise 0.0 fWAR over the last two seasons. He’s replaceable and the Rangers have to be frustrated with the big strikeout numbers, low-OBP figures and subpar defense throughout his big-league tenure.

He’s already shifted to third base with Nick Solak set to take over second-base duties, and with the Rangers signing the versatile Brock Holt, Odor isn’t even going to be an everyday player anymore.

After logging at least 581 plate appearance in three of the last four full seasons and at least 632 in two of the four years, Steamer has Odor projected for just 429 trips to the plate in 2021, and that’s probably if he shows some sort of turnaround at the plate or improved defense at his new position. If not, he could simply be cut loose.

Based on playing time projections alone along his thin-ice standing within the organization, I’m going Under this total.

Prediction: Under 22.5 home runs (-115)

**UPDATE: Odor appears to been designated for assignment by the Rangers. Lock this in if you can!

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