Gonzaga vs. Saint’s Mary’s: NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions

Matchups between Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s are the first ones I circle when schedules come out, and despite there being a larger gap between the Bulldogs and Gaels this season, their Saturday skirmish still makes for an interesting college basketball pick.

Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels

Saturday, January 16, 2021 – 10:00 PM EST at University Credit Union Pavilion

Gonzaga has ruled the rivalry with Saint Mary’s over the years, but this just might be the closest thing to a true David vs. Goliath clash between the two teams ever. The Bulldogs come in ranked No. 1 and working on a 17-game win streak that includes two victories over the Gaels. Saint Mary’s, meanwhile, has dropped its first two West Coast Conference games and struggling to find the basket on offense. An empty gym in Moraga makes the rivalry’s renewal a little less exciting, along with it being one of the wider spreads between the two teams on the Gaels’ floor.

Zags Have Covered Just One of Four WCC Contests

As is usually the case once Mark Few’s squad reaches the WCC schedule, bettors are paying a premium to back the Bulldogs. Not that the reputation hasn’t been earned, but giving up those extra points has already led to three consecutive battles that ended with Gonzaga falling just shy of beating the spreads.

That was certainly the case Thursday night at home with Pepperdine in town. Favored by 27, the Bulldogs didn’t really begin to pull away from the Waves until about five minutes into the second half and fell a bucket short of the cover in a 95-70 final. Corey Kispert hit 6-of-11 from outside the arc to lead the way with 23 points, and the Bulldogs shot nearly 54% on the evening.

Early turnovers – 18 on the game – were the culprit behind the inability to cover. Gonzaga has given up at least 17 on NCAA basketball odds boards in all four league tilts, and only managed to cover one of them. In the three previous games before Pepperdine’s visit, the Bulldogs opened big leads early and then let off the gas a bit. In their four games against ranked teams, they went 3-1 ATS.

Can Gaels Find Their Shooting Touch?

“Late Shooting Woes Sink Gaels in Loss to BYU” was the headline on the Saint Mary’s website following Thursday’s 62-52 loss to the Cougars. That just might qualify as the biggest understatement this season considering the Gaels scored just two points over the final 10 minutes and 36 seconds of the contest to allow BYU to sneak away from Moraga with a dubya.

Most online sportsbooks favored Saint Mary’s by 1-1½ against the Cougars, and the simple fact is the Gaels have been suffering through ‘shooting woes’ all season. Some of that is no doubt due to inconsistency on the schedule, with Thursday’s tilt just their second in 16 days. Saint Mary’s now faces a second matchup in less than 48 hours and is staring at a very uncharacteristic 0-3 start on the league fixture. The last time that happened was 2005-06 when the Gaels dropped their first three WCC games, and five of their first six.

‘Over’ Cashed All 3 Matchups Last Season Saturday’s clash marks the 105th in a series that Gonzaga owns a 73-31 advantage after winning 18 of the last 22. We’re used to seeing the Bulldogs and Gaels meet three times a year, as they’ve done 10 of the past 12 seasons with an extra showdown in the WCC Tournament, and the scheduled follow-up this time in Spokane will take place in about a month. Saint Mary’s has dropped the last four encounters in Moraga.

Gonzaga swept all three meetings last season, winning each time by double digits with the most lopsided of those taking place at McKeon Pavilion. Favored by 5, the Bulldogs used a huge first half to cruise to a 90-60 rout. Drew Timme led the way with a double-double off the bench (20 pts, 10 reb) and Gonzaga shot nearly 68% on the evening. A Saint Mary’s 3-pointer with 12 seconds just pushed the final ‘over’ a 148-point total.

Saint Mary’s can’t blame rust for a slow start having played on Thursday, but it remains to be seen if the Gaels can get into any rhythm on offense. The Bulldogs aren’t exactly known for defense, but they are known for putting the rock in the bucket, and should be able to score enough to cover even if Saint Mary’s regains a bit of its shooting.

Free NCAAB Pick: Gonzaga -15 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Gonzaga -15(-105)

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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

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