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Fights to Make for the Losers of UFC 265

August 12, 2021
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Fights to Make for the Losers of UFC 265

UFC 265 was a fun show! Most of the fights played out as we predicted so that always helps with the mood but it was a high level show as well. There was plenty of talent on display from the opening fight on the early prelims all the way to the main event.

And it wasn’t just the winners either! Everyone focuses on the winners, naturally, and I get it. We will write a blog on what will be next for those guys as well but first, I wanted to talk about what is next for the losers of UFC 265.

Why are we focusing on losers, though, you ask?

Well, UFC 265 was a high-profile event and a lot of people saw the fights and thus naturally focused on and remembered the winners. People forget the losers, well, fans I should say. As handicappers and bettors, we don’t quickly forget that man or woman who flaked on us and gave away our money and a fight.

Here is your why, though.
Recency bias is a real thing and the losers of a high-profile event are much more likely to be undervalued in their next fight than the winners who, of course, may be overvalued when they step foot inside the Octagon once more. We had some really high-level guys lose and they may get a step down in competition while also being undervalued. I smell a bet and we don’t even have the names or the numbers in front of us yet!

Derrick Lewis fought well, believe it or not, but Cyril Gane is just that good. I know a lot of dumb money which was coming from some respected places were on Derrick to get the knockout and at (+450), wow!

The books played y’all.

They knew you would recognize that a TKO was virtually The Black Beast’s only realistic path to victory. But his betting odds at Betonline on the moneyline to win straight up were only (+285) or so…

Normally, if they only have one likely path to victory, the method of victory payout will differ ever so slightly than the moneyline. I have seen (-120) to win and (+100) for a method of victory like a knockout in these situations.

Do you guys think the books didn’t know this? They were just giving out that (+450) because they were amateurs or it was somehow a mistake? Get out of here! They knew exactly what they were doing.

They just put a bigger piece of cheese on the mouse trap and “sharp” after “sharp” closed in and got their pretty little heads clamped! I told my friends that the betting line was nothing more than bait.

Please Note:
It is important we get into the heads of the online bookmakers because they gamble also. It isn’t all about getting even money on each side. They had a great idea of how this one was going to play out and they were spot on.

This fight was never close. The sharpest bet on the main event was the over 1.5 for (-200) and also Gane inside the distance for (-110) because Derrick isn’t the type of guy to fight 5 rounds whether he is winning or losing.

What is next for Derrick Lewis?

We will answer that question along with some others in a moment. We are going to handicap these potential future matchups as well. Anybody with a few fingers can type up a “What’s next for these guys?” article and pick some names around his ranking who don’t have fights scheduled.

I like to cap the hypothetical fights as well because if the matchmakers and I are thinking similarly then we have already done some of the work needed to make our way to a play and if we find a mistake in the betting line then you guys can jump on it without having to wait for weeks or even months before they hear from one of us to confidently make a play.

I have no interest in solely catching fish for you guys. I know that is part of my job and I will always be ready for it and do it but I also want to take the time to teach you guys and girls to fish.

Eventually:
You will be able to spot the times where I am wrong and possibly betting on a friend or I have some recency bias going on too. We are building an empire here at The Sports Geek, team! Don’t forget that.

Let’s look at what will be next for the losers of UFC 265 and from there, we can make some predictions on the winner as well as cap the fight from a betting perspective.

Handicapping Potential Future Fights for the Losers of UFC 265

Jamey Simmons

Okay, we may not get our chance to get some value on Jamey because unfortunately, I don’t think the company will be bringing him back.

He probably was only on a 2-fight contract and even though he fought a couple of high level prospects, he is still 0-2.

The man has a ton of heart but it doesn’t appear that the skill level is where it needs to be with Jamey. I will stop now because I sound like an arrogant prick giving him his pink slip.

Victoria Leonardo

The American is currently 8-4 and she is a solid fighter who ran into a buzzsaw against Melissa Gatto.

I think Vicky deserves another chance so let’s give her Poliana Botelho of Brazil. Both women are strikers at heart and it would make for an exciting matchup. Poliana is also 8-4 but is coming off of 2 consecutive losses.

Do I think we would have some good value here on Leonardo should they make this fight?

Maybe. Poliana has struggled with women taking her down in the past and that is how the American beat Chelsea Hackett on the Contender Series.

(-150) Victoria Leonardo vs (+120) Poliana Botelho

We might get close to even odds and judging on how she has handled Muay Thai strikers in the past, I think we have more paths to victory here betting on her than we would with Poliana. With that being said, this is still a very low level women’s MMA fight and they tend to have more parody than any others.

The P word is, of course, a bad one in our industry so we steer clear of it whenever we can. This isn’t the NFL where you don’t have a choice but to play along in the parody parade and I think that is why it is much easier to be successful picking fights but a football capper might say the same thing to me.

Whether or not he has the numbers to back it up, though, is another story.

I love fighting and also winning so let’s continue doing what we are doing.

Anderson dos Santos

Okay, the company can stop lying about this guy’s height now. He finally fought someone shorter than him and the truth is out!

I saw him listed at 5’4” and 5’5” all over the internet and his previous two opponents before Miles Johns were 5’9” and 5’10”, respectively.

So, of course, he was significantly smaller but against Miles, he was clearly the bigger man.

I know Johns has some muscle on his frame but it looks like that guy could also fight at the Flyweight limit of 125 pounds.

He looked 5’4” standing next to Anderson dosSantos but I think he is more like 5’6” or even 5’7”. These things matter! Well, they didn’t matter too much or should we say Miles used his opponent’s height advantage against him on Saturday night at UFC 265.

That shovel hook to the body and the ¾ overhand right was the perfect combination at the perfect time! What a way to finish him off and wrap up another clean win for us.

What is next for Anderson?

Well, he fights hard but he is 36 years old with a record of 20-10.

He has lost 2 of 3 fights and the UFC’s Bantamweight Division is the most talent rich of any weight class on the roster. I think it is time to go for dos Santos but let’s say he has one more fight left on his current contract with the company.

Let’s give him Kris Moutinho. If that name sounds familiar, it is because he was the purple green headed kid who gave Sean O’Malley 3 hard rounds on just a few days notice. We were on the over 1.5 rounds for (+165).

I knew this kid wasn’t going to quit and he stayed in the face of O’Malley the entire night. This didn’t win him the fight but it prevented Salty Sean from setting anything up.

O’Malley didn’t hold his ground either.

I know he didn’t have to do so to win but he would have gained a lot more respect if he would’ve. This is also a blueprint for future O’Malley opponents. Cheers to Kris for taking one for the team.

Against dos Santos, I would still have to make him the underdog, though.

(-145) dos Santos and (+125) Moutinho.

Ode Osbourne

They keep trying to hype this guy up but he just keeps losing. He beat whipping boy Jerome Rivera but that’s it. They said, oh he left his neck out there against Brian Kelleher.

Well, maybe he was dominated pillar to post but it shows he has a horrible fight IQ. He was outgunned against Kape and another nice win for us but what is next for Ode?

Assuming he wants to stay down in the UFC’s Flyweight Division, let’s give him JP Buys. JP came in very highly touted but lost his first ever UFC fight as a favorite to a severely underrated Bruno Silva.

I think Ode might be able to hang with JP if he can defend the takedown. That is a big if, though. Buys can grapple very well and his wife just got her first win inside the Octagon so let’s get one for the hubby as well.

I would line this one (-165) for JP Buys and (+140) for Ode Osbourne.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Just stop. She is a broken woman.

I love her as much as anyone but she just doesn’t have it mentally anymore and without that, all the skills in the world can’t help you win a UFC fight.

Ed Herman

I love Ed too but 41 years old is time to stop. I think he has made a decent chunk of change fighting for over a decade in the UFC so let him go and if he comes back, he is your’s fore..

He won a lot of people over being the terminator taking so many shots and coming forward but at 40+, when does CTE become a talking point?

Drako Rodriguez

Things aren’t looking good for Drako, lately, and in the UFC’s Bantamweight Division as we said, we are shoulder to shoulder with talent and the weak need to be weeded.

I say give him Khalid Taha, a very strong talent who is a Turkish German. He has the support from both countries and they each love fighting quite a bit. He has dropped two in a row, though, to strong competition, so let’s give him a step down in order for him to take a step up later on.

(-260) Khalid Taha and (+220) Draco Rodriguez

Bobby Green

Great show put on by Bobby King Green in defeat. He might have lost a unanimous decision but he sure didn’t look like more than a 2 to 1 underdog in there against the highly touted Rafael Fisiev.

What is next for Bob? Well, he is at the point in his career that he knows he isn’t going to be a world champ so right now, it is more about making money and having fun in there.

It is clear from watching the man compete that he is doing both.

Give him another high-level striker and let’s have a repeat of what we saw close out the prelims at UFC 265. Nasrat Haqparast is another German who is incredibly fast and accurate with his strikes.

Accuracy vs defense. Who could want more?

(-195) Nasrat Haqparast vs (+165) Bobby Green

Angela Hill

What is she going to whine about next? She already has a whiny voice and then she complains about every close fight she is involved in. She doesn’t have the wrestling so even if she slightly edges a striking battle, she is overpowered in the clinch and/or taken down by her opponents and loses the round.

She has lost 10 of her last 18 fights and is just 13-10 overall in her pro mixed martial arts career.

Yet, she is still ranked just outside of the top ten and gets A TON of media. Tecia Torres was affordable to beat her because I promise you that the average fan knew Angela but had no idea who Tecia is.

The Tiny Tornado has been in there with much much better competition and still has a far better overall record. I liked Hill at first because she was a tall long Muay Thai stylist like myself but she just whines and cries too much for my liking. Kinda like Salty Sean O’Malley. Same thing.

Michael Chiesa

Give em Wonderboy!

They are both coming off of recent losses and they are stylistic opposites. I like the matchup a lot and from a betting perspective, I don’t know.

I still need some time to evaluate this one. Mike has the wrestling edge but does he have the striking prowess to freeze Stephen as we saw from Gilbert Burns?

We know Wonderboy is light years ahead of Mike on the feet but he is aging and approaching 38 years old. I would make Wonderboy the favorite here still, though.

(-140) Stephen Thompson vs (+120) Mike Chiesa

Pedro Munhoz

Well well, you talk about dull money moving a betting line…

Pedro Munhoz was the betting favorite at (-120) by fight time against Jose Aldo. I just never saw it. Yes, he is a pressure fighter but Jose can get some momentum of his own also. We know Pedro isn’t bigger and the two men are the same age minus two days difference.

Oh, and Jose had a 5 inch reach advantage on the Brazilian T-Rex. I was happy to take the former 145 GOAT here to beat a fringe top ten guy who usually needs his opponents to make a mistake for him to win, at this level at least.

Jose has one of the best jabs ever and a great straight right as well. It was Deion Sanders interception-level city for Aldo on his way to setting a personal record for significant strikes landed.

What about Dro, though?

Another former world champion, Dominick Cruz.

I think Cruz dances circles around him but Pedro has a name and a ranking so why not? Cruz is obviously the name they want to push so make it happen, Sean Shelby!

(-180) Dom Cruz vs (+150) Pedro Munhoz

Derrick Lewis

It was a rough night for Derrick losing so badly in front of his hometown crowd but I promise you he didn’t lose any fans in the process. The guy is as lovable as they come.

Derrick was just outmatched in there.

Against a fighter who, in my opinion, is the best heavyweight MMA athlete I have ever seen. Cyril Gane is that good and I would favor him over Franky Ngannou, not by much but I would.

Derrick is far from through, though. He has the heart of a lion and I expect him to scratch and claw all that he can to get back to the top.

Let’s wait to see if Jairzinho Rozenstruik loses against Curtis Blaydes next month at UFC 266 and if he does, I think a fight with Derrick would be really fun.

Two knockout artists so what could go wrong?

Ghosts of Ngnannou vs Lewis howling in the background… Call me absolutely crazy, guys, but I have Rozy in this fight.

It is a gut feeling and a hard fight to call but I will make him the slight favorite.

(-130) Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs (+110) Derrick Lewis

In Conclusion

There you have it, team! I actually learn a lot from these hypothetical handicapping sessions and I hope you do too.

Please Note:
I try to point out the trends and potential opportunities for the fights that have already taken place and also the potential scraps on the horizon.

Derrick Lewis, as I said, isn’t going to lose any fans and if there are humans out there that abandoned him after Saturday night’s loss to Cyril Gane at UFC 265, then they were never fans to begin with.

Mike Chiesa is still one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC’s Welterweight Division and maybe he still wins 6 of 10 from Vicente Luque but Mike got careless, really careless, with both hands on the mat and on his knees.

This left too many gaps not to be taken advantage of by an opportunistic killer like Vince.

Pedro Munhoz is good but his reach failed him against Jose Aldo who also looked a lot better than we have seen in quite some time. There are a lot of fun matchups we could have made but I tried to balance realism with what the UFC would want along with what may produce some undervalued fighters.

The latter is what we are looking for and it never hurts for us to get inside the minds of our enemies. We can’t live in there but it would be foolish to ignore this tactic altogether.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

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