Oli Scarff/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Fulham standout Josh Maja, right, and his teammates celebrate a goal.
After what seemed like an eternity, we are finally back in action this weekend on the European soccer landscape.
With the international break completed, we return to the domestic side of the sport and what will surely be some crazy times during the stretch run of league play across the continent. That likely insanity should deliver upsets galore along the way, some of which we hope to highlight in this weekly feature.
If you’re new to this preview, our experts search for live underdogs at +200 odds or longer playing on the weekend in Europe. Whether it’s a match in Ligue 1, Serie A or the Premier League, the goal is simple: Find a team that could deliver a winner.
That said, let’s take a look at the picks.
| GAME | PICK | ODDS | DAY | TIME |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Borussia Dortmund | Frankfurt | +320 | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Torino vs. Juventus | Torino | +510 | Saturday | 12 p.m. ET |
| Aston Villa vs. Fulham | Fulham | +230 | Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| Cádiz vs. Valencia | Cádiz | +215 | Sunday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| Manchester United vs. Brighton | Brighton | +450 | Sunday | 2:30 p.m. ET |
Odds as of Friday night via DraftKings.
Anthony Dabbundo: Eintracht Frankfurt ML (+325) vs. Borussia Dortmund
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET
You could have made the case about halfway through the Bundesliga season that Borussia Dortmund was one of Europe’s more underrated teams.
The Black and Yellows’ underlying numbers suggested positive regression was coming. However, under manager Edin Terzic, they’ve just gotten worse. Goalkeeper Roman Burki was benched. The club has also had a slew of injuries, plus they’ve lacked consistency on a week-to-week basis.
Now, Dortmund plays in-form Eintracht Frankfurt, knowing a Champions League tie with Manchester City comes three days after this game. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Black and Yellows rotated some key players coming off the international break, largely due to the fact UCL play is around the corner.
Since Jan. 1, only Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig have better underlying numbers than Frankfurt. And it hasn’t just been the attack for Adi Hütter’s side.
Frankfurt is third in both expected goals for and against in the German top flight. The outfit is a bit over-reliant on Andre Silva for goals, but I like that it gets its creative production from multiple places across the pitch.
This team, which can hurt Dortmund on quick-strike transition after turnovers, shows plenty of value at +280 odds or better in my opinion.
Kieran Darcy: Torino ML (+510) vs. Juventus
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 12 p.m. ET
If you’re a Serie A fan, it doesn’t get much better than this latest round of matches, with all 20 clubs in action the day before Easter. And among the 10 games is the Derby della Mole, with Torino hosting Juventus.
Just looking at the table alone, it appears this is a huge mismatch. Torino has taken just 23 points from its first 27 matches this season, sitting only a point above the relegation zone in the Italian top flight.
However, in terms of xG differential, Torino is a mid-table side and ranks 10th in the league at -4.1 xGDiff, according to FBRef.
Juventus suffered a 1-0 loss to 16th-place Benevento in its final match before the international break. The Black and Whites are in fourth place, sitting 10 points behind Inter Milan and with very little chance of catching its foe.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Juventus only has 3 percent chance of winning the crown.
Center backs Leonardo Bonucci and Merih Demiral are out after testing positive for COVID-19 while on international duty. Paulo Dybala, Weston McKennie and Arthur won’t play either after breaching COVID-19 regulations.
It sounds like a team in turmoil, so I’ll take a flyer on Torino at better than 5-1 odds in this spot.
Jeremy Pond: Fulham ML (+230) vs. Aston Villa
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know Fulham is knee-deep in a fight for its Premier League survival at this juncture of the season. I’m also well aware of the fact the Cottagers have lost three of their last four games in England’s top flight.
However, I’m also cognizant of the fact this 18th-place side picked up a 1-0 shutout victory against Liverpool at Anfield in that lone bright spot prior to the international break. And that’s a big reason why I’ve landed on manager Scott Parker’s revitalized group entering this affair with Aston Villa.
These are not the same Cottagers that suffered a 3-0 loss to the Villans back on Sept. 28 at Villa Park. These are not the same Cottagers that wound up losing the xG battle that day by a 1.6-0.7 margin.
No, this is a team that is doing everything it can to avoid relegation to the Championship and knows Aston Villa is ripe for the taking in this contest.
Jack Grealish is reportedly returning to the Villans’ lineup, but it’s unclear in what capacity. My guess is he’s used as a reserve after missing several matches with injury, which helps the Cottagers’ chances for a strong start.
Aston Villa’s offense has all but dried up in his absence, with the club going winless in its last four matches and scoring just one goal during that span.
Bottom line, this comes down to which combatant needs this win more. Aston Villa fans would argue its their club, which is in 10th place and has an outside shot at a Europa League berth.
However, the opposition has so much more at stake. If it can find the form it displayed at Anfield, a victory could definitely be in the cards. Fulham deserved that win against Liverpool, triumphing in the xG fight via a 1.1-1.0 advantage, and showed it can play with anyone in the league.
That said, I am backing Josh Mata and the Cottagers to take another step closer to safety and cut into that two-point gap with 17th-place Newcastle United, which will be up against facing heavily favored Tottenham Hotspur.
Matt Trebby: Cádiz ML (+215) vs. Valencia
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 12:30 p.m. ET
Neither Cádiz or Valencia have been particularly impressive this season, but the underdog plays at home this weekend and faces a Valencia side that has lost four of its last five away matches, including three in a row.
Cádiz has allowed 44 goals this season, compared to just 34.26 NPxGA, which indicates bad luck. In contrast, Valencia has scored 34 goals during its campaign, with just 24.88 NPxG and that indicates plenty of good fortune.
Needless to say, Valencia’s fortunes have taken a huge turn for the worse this season and we’ll fade them away from home soil in this LaLiga meeting.
BJ Cunningham: Brighton & Hove Albion ML (+450) vs. Manchester United
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 2:30 p.m. ET
That’s right. We’re taking everybody’s favorite team to pull off a massive upset at Old Trafford this weekend.
For those of you who have been living under rock and are not aware of what Brighton has done this season, it’s easily the most underrated team in all of Europe. The Seagulls have the fifth-best differential in expected goals in the Premier League, but are somehow deep in a relegation battle at the moment.
In fact, Brighton is allowed less xG per match (1.06) than Manchester United (1.12) this season. I could go on and on about all of the chances the Seagulls have squandered, but why don’t I show you instead.
Brighton have scored 27 goals from 45.52(xG) this season…
[🎥 @OFComps]
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) March 10, 2021
Brighton completely dominated Manchester United earlier this season, but wasn’t able to walk away with any points. The Seagulls out-created Manchester United a whopping 2.93 to 1.92 margin, but endured a gutting 3-2 defeat instead. I mean they hit the post FOUR times in that match, so they’re clearly capable of beating the Red Devils.
At this point, it feels redundant to say Brighton is due for positive regression, but it truly is. Give me the Seagulls to get the three points they deserve at Old Trafford and pull off the road shocker.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/soccer/european-soccer-odds-picks-our-staffs-favorite-underdogs-this-weekend-april-3-4
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