Early 147th Kentucky Derby Preview & Predictions

The 147th Kentucky Derby is scheduled for May 1 at the historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. There is a short turnaround from the 146th Kentucky Derby after that was in October. The pandemic prompted a lengthy delay, but one thing that remained constant was Bob Baffert. Dealing with two injuries to two prominent runners in Nadal and Charlatan, Baffert won his sixth Kentucky Derby with Authentic.

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Authentic was a favorite in the spring around when the Kentucky Derby was originally scheduled, but the rise of Barclay Tagg’s Tiz the Law shifted the odds in his favor. The call last March was the right one on Baffert’s Authentic. Authentic landed as a 8/1 morning-line underdog in the Kentucky Derby, as he pulled away in the stretch from Tiz the Law. We waited and waited for Tiz the Law to giddy up, but the kick wasn’t there in the stretch while Authentic pulled away.

Baffert is dealing with another injury in his barn as we get closer to May. There is an important injury to note to a big runner. Life Is Good, who I was high on, will miss Triple Crown season with a minor ankle injury. It isn’t expected to force him to retire, but he will undergo surgery to repair a small chip. Unfortunate because Life Is Good had a shot at the win. Despite the injury to Life Is Good, this is still an ultra talented field scheduled to run in the 147th Kentucky Derby.

Fans were not permitted at the Kentucky Derby in October. The atmosphere looked a bit weird without any fans in the grandstands. That will not be the case on May 1, at least the current mandate is aiming for fans in attendance. Churchill Downs lost $120 million last year as a result the public prevented from going to the Run for the Roses. The fan experience is going to be much different at Churchill Downs, but at least there will be activity at the 147th Kentucky Derby. Head below for our free 147th Kentucky Derby preview and Kentucky Derby predictions for May 1, 2021.

Sign changed ✅ #KyDerby 147 is near!! 🙌 pic.twitter.com/eANy6lDNAi

— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) March 22, 2021

The Road To The Kentucky Derby Preview

A point based system is used to determine who is going to the Kentucky Derby. A field of 20 horses are eligible to run for the Run for the Roses. Tiz the Law led the leaderboard last year with 372 points, while Authentic had 200 points going into the Derby. There was one no else around them, with Art Collector third with 150 points.

The 20th spot had 30 points, so winning a 100-point prep race is not necessary, though it does provide an automatic entry. Hot Rod Charlie, who is coming off a win in the $1,000,000 Louisiana Derby (Gr. 1) and 100 points, is being pointed straight to the Kentucky Derby.

Hot Rod Charlie currently leads with 110 points, while Midnight Bourbon is second with 66 points, Greatest Honour 60 points, Mandaloun 52 points, and Concert Tour 50 points to round out the top-5. Essential Quality is outside of the top-5, but is in fine form in 8th with 40 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Essentially Quality will run in the Blue Grass Stakes (Gr. 2) on April 3 at Keeneland in Kentucky. Another prep race to note coming up is the running of the $750,000 Florida Derby (Gr. 1) on March 27. There are still seven prep races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby with 170 points, so several opportunities for outsiders to reach the race. You can find the remaining races on hte schedule below.

The Favorites and Underdogs To Note

Life Is Good was in fine form before the ankle injury removed him from the Kentucky Derby picture. That’s a bad break for trainer Bob Baffert, but don’t feel bad for him, he still has a very strong horse in Concert Tour. Concert Tour has been in terrific form and is coming off a win in the $1,000,000 Rebel Stakes (Gr. 2) on March 13.

That was too easy for Concert Tour, as he cleared Hozier by 4 ¼ lengths. It could have been a bigger win than that, though Joel Rosario geared Concert Tour down and relaxed through the final stretch run. Concert Tour is a perfect 3 for 3, with a win in the $200,000 San Vicente Stakes (Gr. 2) on February 6.

He drifted late and needed to hold on for a half length win, but showed tremendous improvement a month later. If Baffert continues with Concert Tour on this path, he’s going to be a tough horse to beat. Baffert has referred to him as good as Triple Crown winner, American Pharoah. He has to keep getting better if that’s going to come true, but certainly the talent is there to pull off a Triple Crown.

It’s hard not to like what Essential Quality has done as well. Essential Quality is in top form for Brad Cox with a 4 for 4 record. He already has two Grade 1 wins on his resume in the $400,000 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (Gr. 1) on October 3 and $2,000,000 TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on November 6 over Hot Rod Charlie by a half length. Essential Quality is coming off a $750,000 win over Spielberg in the Southwest Stakes (Gr. 3) February 27.

You want an underdog running under the radar? The lightly used Prevalence could be worth a look at +1600. Prevalence made an impressive debut on January 23 to win by 8 ½ lengths to win handedly in the stretch for a $50,000 purse. From an underdog to a 1/9 favorite in his next race, Prevalence followed up on March 11 in a $52,000 race by 3 lengths under light urging. Impressive kick in the stretch.

The Early 2021 Kentucky Derby Prediction

CONCERT TOUR captures the G2 $1M Rebel Stakes & gives HOF Trainer Bob Baffert his 8th Rebel victory @OaklawnRacing. 50 points on the #RoadtotheDerby @spendthriftfarm pic.twitter.com/wOcQfjHc77

— TVG (@TVG) March 13, 2021

The early call has Concert Tour and Essential Quality as the top contenders to win the 147th Kentucky Derby. They are in the best of form at the moment and have time to show improvement. I think if you’re going to look at these two and say who has the best chance to improve more, Concert Tour is likely the winner.

While Essential Quality is flying at the moment, there is a chance he’s peaking just a bit too early. You have to keep in mind that he does have a nice distance pedigree, which will help in the Derby, though. Having said that, Essential Quality is a strong contender to win this event as well. I wouldn’t put it past Essential Quality to win the 147th running of the Kentucky Derby if he stays healthy.

It’s really hard to ignore Baffert. A lot of people may not like him, but he’s a winner that knows how to produce champions. He’s most likely going to have Concert Tour in prime form at the perfect time. Along with his impressive performances in the San Vicente Stakes and Rebel Stakes, Concert Tour has been in great form in recent workouts. We are still getting good odds on both horses right now, which enables a bet on both and cash a profit. For daily horse racing picks, be sure to check out our horse racing page at TheSportsGeek.