Ducks vs. Sharks NHL Betting Odds & Pick: Anaheim Has Clear Advantage Thanks to Goaltending

Ducks vs. Sharks Odds

The Anaheim Ducks have been surprisingly competitive through the first quarter of the NHL season. Meanwhile, the San Jose Sharks find themselves at the bottom of the NHL’s West Division. Despite this, the Sharks are slight home favorites on Monday night.

These teams meet for the third time this season, with the teams splitting a pair of games earlier in the month. Both games required a shootout, so it’s natural to expect another tight game on Monday. 

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Anaheim Ducks

The Anaheim Ducks entered the season with expectations very low for a club clearly going through a transformative phase. Despite this, the Ducks currently sit in fourth place in the West Division with a record of 6-6-3. 

With that being said, there’s nothing exciting or overly impressive about this Anaheim team. 

The Ducks find themselves in the bottom-ten in terms of expected goals per game as well as goals scored at even strength per hour. At all strengths, they are the lowest scoring team in the league on a per-game basis, averaging just 1.93 goals per game. 

Anaheim’s leading point producer is youngster Max Comtois with a measly eight points. He is the only player on the Ducks averaging more than a half point per game to begin the season. Unfortunately, it seems like the Ducks’ franchise player, Ryan Getzlaf, is on a steep downward trajectory. 

Anaheim’s saving grace has been the play of goaltender John Gibson. Gibson had a bit of a down year last season, but he’s bounced back to begin this campaign. The Ducks’ goaltender finds himself in the top-10 in both goals saved above average (GSAA) and goals saved above expectation (GSAx). 

Gibson gives the Ducks a chance to win almost any night. If not for him, it’s hard to see this team having any success as they are dreadful offensively and below average defensively. 

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San Jose Sharks

The San Jose Sharks’ organization is actually nearly a carbon-copy of the Ducks in terms of trajectory. The Sharks have been competitive for nearly two decades in the Western Conference, but last year things fell off the rails and it has continued into this season. 

San Jose finds itself in the bottom-10 in expected-goal rate as well as high danger chances. The Sharks are middle of the pack in generating offense, but they are bottom-five defensively in preventing scoring chances. 

The Sharks do have more talent in their forward group than the Ducks do. Logan Couture, Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl and Evander Kane make up a solid albeit unspectacular group up front. Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson are two of the more feared offensive defensemen in the league. Despite the decent talent, San Jose averages just 2.36 goals per game. 

The Sharks’ big issue comes between the pipes. The team bought in Devan Dubnyk in the offseason to tandem with Martin Jones, but Dubnyk is currently out with an injury. This means San Jose will rely on Jones for a few games here, and that could be a scary proposition. Jones has the worst GSAA mark in the league and he’s bottom-five in GSAx. 

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Ducks vs. Sharks Best Bet

Let’s start by clarifying that both of these teams are below average. However, just like a starting pitcher in baseball, goaltending can trump all when it comes to hockey.

These teams aren’t separated by much when it comes to the metrics, but Anaheim has a better record for one reason, and it’s the same reason I like them as a small underdog in this contest. 

Jones is one of the worst goalies in the league while Gibson is one of the best. While Anaheim struggles to score on most nights, Jones’ presence alleviates that concern a bit. The Sharks might have more talent, but Gibson is more than capable of stifling them. 

I would make this game a virtual pick’em, so at plus-money, I see value on Anaheim here. 

Pick: Anaheim Ducks ML (-105 or better)

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