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Does Sean O’Malley’s New Opponent at UFC 264 Have a Chance?

July 8, 2021
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If you guys have read much of the material we have been putting out for the upcoming pay per view, UFC 264, then you are well aware of how much disdain I have for Salty Sean O’Malley. If the guy would just admit that he lost to Chito Vera.

I would forgive him but he continues to live in a fantasy world and lies to himself.

Ever since Sean got the step up in competition when he fought Marlon Chito Vera, the slick striking curly headed stoner has had it pretty easy. The UFC has matched him up perfectly but to his credit, O’Malley has still delivered.

I am more than certain that’s what the UFC is expecting from him on Saturday night on the main card of UFC 264 when he fights…Kris Moutinho…

Wait, I thought he had a more difficult matchup as maybe the fastest fighter in the division with the best timing against Louis, I’m probably the slowest guy in the division, Smolka. This one was free money, in my opinion, but unfortunately for aspiring bettors, I included, the sportsbooks felt the same way.

I had O’Malley to win inside the distance, though, and that betting line was rather affordable at just (-160) so I tipped that play on Monday even though Louis has never been put away with strikes in his UFC career.

Stylistically, though, Sean had another cheesecake sitting in front of him. Louis is known to plod forward and hope that his opponents shoot a takedown so he can work his ground game but Sean wasn’t going to do that.

O’Malley was going to walk the Hawaiian into a hard one and put his lights out. If not with the first shot, O’Malley is so incredibly accurate, Salty would have more than likely finished the fight shortly after.

I can talk all the crap I want about his ego but Sean has never been short on killer instinct. I think the reason I am hating on the guy so much is because I am a tall skinny curly-headed striking-based fighter myself.

I have never had his speed but my timing has been pretty solid over the years. I, like many others who aren’t even tall or skinny, fell in love with O’Malley early on in his UFC career and started to buy the hype.


Then, we backed him going into the Chito Vera fight at ridiculous betting odds that closed just before fight time at 3 to 1 to win. And I just found this out. Sean O’Malley opened up as a (+185) underdog for this fight.

This line obviously didn’t stick around for very long and I don’t think there have been very many line moves from (+185) to (-302) over the years.

Okay, maybe (-300) to (-600).

I can see that. It isn’t a massive change in implied probabilities.

Even though there is a 3 point shift, the implied probabilities are only changing from 75 to 85%. O’Malley’s betting line against Chito Vera moved significantly more because of the shift in implied probabilities.

I am not saying I blamed them.
I was backing Sean at (-240) or something so sure, they got him as a dog, that was a solid bet. Mine, rather, was atrocious. That shift is still blowing my mind. Are you ready for this, guys?

Sean O’Malley opened up with an implied probability to defeat Marlon Chito Vera of 35%. His betting odds closed at 75%. Nuts. This is reason enough alone to bet Chito at fight time. We all saw the fight, I think, though.

O’Malley, who is a notoriously fast starter by making reads quickly and finding the timing of his opponent seemingly with ease, came out quick against Chito and was landing some. This is normal, though, for Vera, who hardly ever wins the first round of a UFC fight.

The UFC thought hey, slow vs fast starter. They thought O’Malley would come out there and catch the Ecuadorian star cold but quite the contrary. The calf kicks of Vera summoned demons from the Montana native’s past.

O’Malley should have already lost in his professional mixed martial arts career when Andre Soukhamthath landed some calf kicks that deadened the peroneal nerve causing his ankle to flop over on its own. This is called a Liz Frenk injury and it has now happened to Sean O’Malley twice in his previous five fights inside of the Octagon.

Circling back to this weekend’s fight at UFC 264, we know that Sean is beatable. Andre is a good fighter but I don’t know if he is really UFC level anymore in the crowded Bantamweight Division, I believe he has already received his walking papers.

What I’m trying to say is that, yes, Kris Moutinho has a chance.

O’Malley has a weak point and two different UFC fighters have been able to exploit it. Andre would have had the win if he didn’t take O’Malley down when Salty could barely even stand up. That was an all time bonehead move that the Thai MMA fighter will never forget. Okay, Kris has a chance.

  • We have established that but how much of one, really?
  • And is there even a betting line or prop out there with any kind of value left?

Let’s answer those questions!

Sean O’Malley (-900) vs Kris Moutinho (+550)

Well, according to the fine folks over at BetOnline.AG, Kris Moutinho has an implied probability to defeat Sean O’Malley of about 15%. That means out of 10 times these two men fight hypothetically under the same circumstances as this Saturday night.

Kris wins 1 or 2 of those scraps.

Honestly, I don’t even give him that much. So, before we answer what we think his chances are of beating Sean O’Malley, if any, let’s answer the question of who is Kris Moutinho?

This guy looks like he could be Sean O’Malley’s brother with the pink hair and tattoos. Nobody knows your fight game better than your brother so there is a chance for the 9-4 fighter, right there.

Kris Moutinho is 28 years old and is fighting out of a small town in Massachusetts. His team is small as well and if he looks even halfway decent against Salty Sean, I think the guy will probably pack it up and head west to Vegas…maybe South Florida or Colorado but he knows he is going to be limited from where he is right now.

The UFC always gives these guys another fight at least against an opponent closer to their level when you step in there more or less to get knocked out. Kris has some gnarly ears on him. I will tell you that.

His cauliflower has some funk to it:
Reminiscent of The Natch Randy Couture. My first day after moving to Las Vegas, I went to Starbucks to get some burnt coffee and there sits Mr Xtreme Couture himself just as chill as can be. Turns out, I would see him, sit and talk probably 50 more times after that as this Starbucks was and still is very popular. Southern Highlands is the neighborhood if you’re ever out that way and Floyd Mayweather lives right down the street.

Back to Kris, though. The guy is a fan favorite because of his aggressive style of striking as well as wrestling. He didn’t get those ears from kickboxing, I promise you that. The kid can wrestle and that presents a challenge for Sean O’Malley that he hasn’t really been faced with in his UFC career.

He just fought Almeida who isn’t a wrestler.

Chito, nope. Eddie Wineland, Jose Quinonez, Andre Soukhamthath, all striking or Jiu Jitsu based fighters. Sean O’Malley’s original opponent, Louis Smolka, wasn’t a wrestling based fighter either.

I told you guys. The UFC has been very kind to Sean.

They know there are a lot of young kids who think smoking weed is the coolest thing in the world and look at this skinny guy with the dorky hair knocking everyone out.

They all probably listen to mumble rap as well. Let me stop there before I really start to feel my age.

O’Malley has been a smart businessman, though, without a doubt.

I am not sure what his net worth is but he has done an exceptional job branding himself. I just wish he would admit defeat to Chito or at least ask for the rematch. I think O’Malley wins a rematch with Chito. I would favor him all the way up to (-160) or so which is probably where the betting line would be if I had to guess.

  • Did I mention I was a Sean O’Malley hater?
  • Okay, where are his betting odds to get the finish against Kris?
  • What’s that Chef?
  • About tree fiddy?
  • Really?

Wow, that’s expensive. Sean O’Malley is (-350) to win inside the distance. Okay, well, that is out of our price range.

Next!
Looking at the over under round total, it is set at 1.5 rounds with the over at plus money (+150) and the under 1.5 sitting at (-180). Wow, those are interesting numbers but I get it. Kris knows that he doesn’t have the gas tank to go hard for 3 rounds or at least I don’t think he does having taken the fight on just 10 day’s notice.

So, naturally, we expect him to come out guns blazing and take out O’Malley in the first round. That isn’t good for the over 1.5, obviously, but maybe he can put O’Malley on alert somehow and frazzle him.

Those ears tell me the kid can wrestle and it is possible that he can steal some time up against the side of the Octagon working in the clinch with O’Malley.

I don’t know about his nickname, though.

On IG, he is Kris is Soulless. Soul less doesn’t sound like a good attribute for a fighter but I am sure Kris looks at it from a different perspective like maybe he has no mercy in which I would say he is in the right business.

This kid is tough and pretty durable. He fought the UFC’s Tony Gravely into the fourth round. Kris lost that fight but Gravely is one of the more promising prospects in the entire UFC Bantamweight Division.

Maybe he hasn’t fought anyone like O’Malley but he has fought a guy with much better wrestling and he went into the fourth round with him. Is Sean going to try to have some fun out there with this kid and play with his food, per se?

He might and that over 1.5 is looking good right now:
(+150) denotes an implied probability of 40%. There might not be much of an edge here on the sportsbooks but if you want some action in the Sean O’Malley fight, I think the over 1.5 is the play.

(-180) for a Bantamweight fight to end before the halfway mark is pricey. This fight has the makings for an early finish but this kid isn’t stupid and he knows wrestling is probably the only way he is going to win this fight so I expect a grapple heavy game plan early on in the contest.

The Bet
Over 1.5 Rounds
+150
Place Bet Now!

In Conclusion

The money has poured in on the under 1.5 and I get it but since we have some value, I say jump on it. It is going to be highly difficult to find value and also follow the narrative, that is unless you get in super early which is practically impossible.

Kris Moutinho is an aggressive kid but he is also tough.

He also appears to be very strong minded so it will have to take him getting rocked and/or KO’ed for this one to stop. I don’t think the guy is going to look for a way out of there.

Hopefully:
He wrestles early on and he makes O’Malley a little hesitant but most everyone thinks Sean is going to go out there and run right through this guy. I am looking at his last fight and the kid is tough.

He was facing a powerful striker who was bigger than him and Kri pushed forward the whole way. He got rocked pretty badly with a left hook but recovered well without his mouthpiece, continued the fight, and still never tapped when he ended up in a triangle choke.

It was just nonstop elbows from his opponent that made the referee step in. Kri never went out so his pressure and hanging on for that long after being hit so hard tells me he has great conditioning and great conditioning is one of the hallmarks of a strong chin.

Facts.

Moutinho is tough and I think Sean wants to land something special on this guy so he may take his time. For (+150), why not? There isn’t any other betting value on this fight.

PLACE BETS NOW!

https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/does-sean-omalleys-new-opponent-at-ufc-264-have-a-chance/

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