Daily NCAA Basketball Picks: Moneylines, Spreads, and Totals

The Georgia Southern Eagles will take their two-game winning streak on the road against South Alabama, who are one game above .500 after losing four of their last five games. Georgia Southern defeated Troy in back-to-back games on January 15 and 16, winning one in overtime and the other in regulation with solid defense. Let’s check their NCAAB odds.

Georgia Southern Eagles vs. South Alabama Jaguars

Friday, January 22, 2021 – 7:00 PM EST at Mitchell Center

These teams played each other back on 1/2/21and the score was 62-49 in favor of Georgia Southern. South Alabama struggled unusually offensively in that game. So now we’re seeing a total that is extremely low for what these teams bring to the table.

That Georgia Southern defense hasn’t been good throughout the season. The defense is allowing opponents to shoot an effective field goal percentage of 55.2 percent along with allowing teams to shoot 40.7 percent from three on the season.

Georgia Southern has been able to force steals and rank in the top 20 in turnover percentage on defense, but have also struggled rebounding. On offense, the Eagles have lacked an effective field goal percentage of 48.5 percent. They’re also turning the ball at an excessive rate while shooting 28 percent from three.

The offense does their damage inside the paint, shooting 53.2 percent inside the arc and rebounding at a very high rate on the offensive glass. Georgia Southern is led by Zack Bryant who is averaging 14.5 points in 11 games this season. He’s also contributed 2.6 rebounds and 2.5 assists along with 1.5 steals per game. Eric Boone is one of the few players on this team that has played all 15 games for the Eagles. He’s averaging 11.5 points per game with 3.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 2.3 steals per game.

Boone is 311th in assist rate this season. While the Eagles don’t have the best offense, this team seems to be getting healthy and have plenty of potential contributors per game. They’re moving at a slow pace but have been consistent inside where they’ll likely score most of their points off missed threes.

South Alabama has shown fantastic offense but has a defense that is struggling, just like Georgia Southern. The Jaguars have an effective field goal percentage of 54.6 percent while Georgia Southern is allowing an effective field goal percentage of 55.2 percent.

We could absolutely see a big game from South Alabama offensively in this spot. They’re shooting 39.3 percent from long range while Georgia Southern is allowing teams to shoot 40.7 percent from long range. South Alabama will ultimately get to the line more frequently than Georgia Southern and shoot 72.1 percent from the linie along with 51.8 percent inside the arc.

Just like Georgia Southern, South Alabama will take plenty of threes. They’d much rather shoot the long ball than try to score inside. However, unlike Georgia Southern, they make their shots at a very high percentage.

Michael Flowers has been the main contributor to this offense averaging 22.3 points per game along with 3.9 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. He’s also chipping in with 1.8 steals per game and knocking down 46.8 percent of threes this season.

South Alabama has a short rotation giving Flowers an average of 36.1 minutes per game this season. This team mainly plays just seven guys and they all play about 20 minutes or more per game.

Defensively, the Jaguars have struggled, allowing teams to shoot an effective field goal percentage of 54.8 percent. They’ve also had trouble on the defensive glass. Teams are shooting 37 percent from three, 53.7 percent from inside the arc, and 73.4 percent from the foul line against.

Prediction

South Alabama, at home, should be able to knock down threes at an extremely high rate as they’ve been doing all season long. On the flip side, Georgia Southern won’t make a ton of threes, even though they’ll shoot a lot. Instead, they’ll work the glass and get second opportunities with some easy layups.

I would expect Georgia Southern to see an uptick in their three-point shooting average as South Alabama has not been great at defending the perimeter either. We’ll see plenty of turnovers and fast break chances in this game. These fastbreaks and turnovers could lead to wide open threes in the corner or in transition at the top of the arc.

Whatever the case may be, I like the over in this spot. We’ve got two struggling defenses and offenses that are scoring at a solid rate this season. South Alabama averages 78.2 points per game while Georgia Southern averages 75.9 points per game. So tell me again why we’re seeing a total of 137.5 on the betting sites?

NCAAB Pick: Over 137.5 (-114) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Over 137.5(-114)

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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

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